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Steps to prevent the collapse of Iraq
There are not a lot of time in front of Iraq's collapse and if the Iraqi government did not act in the direction of the situation we are facing a catastrophe will be resolved in Iraq next year, according to his expert, senior economist Dr (Issam Chalabi), which gave his analysis of the economic figures optimistic and I do not share his optimism and speak numbers truth.
Since the Iraq deliberately in approving the budget on oil resources exclusively and after oil prices reached a price of $ 62 a barrel and there are deductions from the price of a barrel related to the lack of Iraqi oil density and normalize deductions related Bometzaj Iraqi oil by water and Loyalty some commissions and the cost of the ports is the Iraqi Exporting oil such as the port of Ceyhan in Turkey and the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran and the port of Aqaba in Jordan.
So the price of oil will reach $ 55 a barrel, Iraq is currently exported 5.2 million barrels per day. Therefore, the Iraq's imports of oil will reach about 50 billion and 187 million dollars advisors deducted them share the Kurdistan region of $ 12 billion includes allocations peshmerga billion.
It will be deducted including nearly $ 12 billion share of foreign oil companies. The remaining amount of oil revenue is 26 billion and $ 187 million.
While Iraq needs $ 71 billion operating a budget include MIE of the Ministries
and employees' salaries. And require the Department of Defense from 15 to 20 billion dollars annually. The need of the Ministry of the Interior of 10 to 15 billion dollars annually. And require the popular crowd and the Awakening and clans that work with the government to $ 10 billion a year and of course this is what Iraq was commissioned in 2014.
With the beginning of 2014, Iraq has been the World Bank's $ 18 billion in the Central Bank of Iraq $ 70 billion has been disbursed all of Iraq no longer has only approximately $ 400 million of the total is now only 88 billion, which was owned by 2014.
In the case of Iraq as a case has no oil resources is supposed to depend on borrowing countries of the world. But who will lend Iraq.?
The United States and neighboring countries, the Gulf States and the European Union will not do that.
Iran and Iraq can not lending these large sums of money which is also suffering from lower oil prices. In addition to the burden of Hezbollah and Hamas funding and the Syrian regime and the Houthis.
If Iraq continues on the current struggle and preferred financing the Department of Defense and the Interior the amount remaining 24.5 from oil revenues and this amounts to not enough even though the United States she shared in the conflict because the US Congress has appropriated $ 5 billion just to fight Daash includes fighting in Syria and Iraq ... he has to solve all the ministries rest stop payment of salaries and the provision of services and even for the provision of electricity and health services.
If Iraq stopped fighting Daash and use the amount of $ 24.5 billion for the remainder of oil export revenues to fund the operating budget, amounting to $ 71 billion by 2013 budget, he Moazvin salaries cut and pay state salaries to third with a portion of state services stop. Note that the loss of Iraq built infrastructure of bridges, roads, headquarters and government departments and buildings, homes and military heritage and losses and other estimated at approximately $ 300 billion.
To now is the conflict in Iraq is a State against extremism or terrorism, even with some of the abuse on a particular component, but if you are absent or weakened of the army and police, which are quasi-neutral security institution will collapse the entire situation and turn the conflict into a sectarian conflict between militias deployed in areas on a sectarian basis to protect them.
But if the others went to the establishment of a region as above calls for him now, a province south of salvation from this situation and the withdrawal of all military vehicles to him for salvation from Daash it ensures that Aistmr Daash attacking this region and which guarantees makes them for this class of Daash?.
Iraq's future as a nation at a crossroads and the Prime Minister, Dr. Haider al-Abadi to take bold decisions even if they are not subject political party to agree, in front of a period not exceeding six months can take advantage of the international, regional and local by consensus, and to act as the leader of a difficult stage of the history of Iraq.
There are eight steps if was sincere intention of the Iraqi government in eliminating Daash and they have Noaah genuine national reconciliation can perform these steps and I guarantee him the elimination of al Daash and return Iraq to the track during this period, to be frank and Oaqaan in dealing with problems facing the country.
First Alkhtoah
The announcement of a general amnesty for all of the Iraqis to take up arms after the break up sit-ins in Hawija and Anbar force and to refrain from talking about the blood on their hands, there is no political party or an armed group in Iraq has not blood on their hands. Such a move would pull the rug out from under Daash and Tsaf strength because according to estimates that there are approximately 45 000 fighters from Daash in Iraq, seven thousand fighters only are foreigners and the remaining two are Iraqis, some were forced to resort to Daash because of government policies or the previous phase, including the faces of tribal and tribal Loyalty to accuse some of the year's political leaders to some of the opponents of the year they are with Daash, forcing them to resort to it.
The second step
Accelerate the formation of Sunni power, whether the National Guard or other children of the provinces that are now under the control of Daash to impose security in which without the intervention force from outside these provinces so as not to provoke sectarian Alhzazih or nationalism in these areas and re-deployment of the army on the border after we lost .otaweid residents affected by the military operations and the release of detainees without charges and to accelerate the amendment de-Baathification law or accountability neutrophil who was uproots teachers and staff of Mosul, Anbar and Salah al-Din and leaves people like Alfalh and Hanan al.
The third step
Government policy change direction these areas and launch the hands of provincial and municipal councils and boards without compliance with the concepts of the state there that are trying to change them for the rest of the provinces :? Such that Anbar province is not a financial burden on oil imports produced by the provinces of the south and the north, which Vmhafezh Anbar have the ninth reserves in the world of pure phosphate owns expressing Hdodin them payoff of custom Loyalty agriculture where .wayza they are not obliged to study Odahm in curriculum matters to Ataném like some figures that there are political currents carry their names with great respect for them ... while the Companions and the wife of the Messenger of Allah curse and insult a day in some southern areas .omthelma that the Kurds have their own curricula entitled to these areas Aiza launch its own approaches as long as it Atsie to one and remain within the control of the Ministry of Education.
The fourth step
Cancel all mergers officers and associates who Ato through decision (Bremer) and decisions Maliki and turning them of security institutions to civilian government departments.
Step Five
Eliminate the bad ones that suffer bureaucratic state and the armies of staff in the hierarchy of sectarian and without efficiency.
Step Six
The elimination of existing and dominant theocratic rule of God through cleric through the activation of laws even Ananaj cleric issues fatwa to political change if Doe was clinging to power chair and other fatwas that contradict the Constitution of the State.
Step Seven
Formation of a committee consisting of the Prime Minister and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Office of Financial Supervision and the Integrity Commission to audit the accounts and property of every official and lawmaker after 2003 to 2014 and return all the stolen money.
Step Eight
Speed up passage criminalize sectarian law called for some MPs and political activists.
Omar Hassan - Baghdad
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There are not a lot of time in front of Iraq's collapse and if the Iraqi government did not act in the direction of the situation we are facing a catastrophe will be resolved in Iraq next year, according to his expert, senior economist Dr (Issam Chalabi), which gave his analysis of the economic figures optimistic and I do not share his optimism and speak numbers truth.
Since the Iraq deliberately in approving the budget on oil resources exclusively and after oil prices reached a price of $ 62 a barrel and there are deductions from the price of a barrel related to the lack of Iraqi oil density and normalize deductions related Bometzaj Iraqi oil by water and Loyalty some commissions and the cost of the ports is the Iraqi Exporting oil such as the port of Ceyhan in Turkey and the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran and the port of Aqaba in Jordan.
So the price of oil will reach $ 55 a barrel, Iraq is currently exported 5.2 million barrels per day. Therefore, the Iraq's imports of oil will reach about 50 billion and 187 million dollars advisors deducted them share the Kurdistan region of $ 12 billion includes allocations peshmerga billion.
It will be deducted including nearly $ 12 billion share of foreign oil companies. The remaining amount of oil revenue is 26 billion and $ 187 million.
While Iraq needs $ 71 billion operating a budget include MIE of the Ministries
and employees' salaries. And require the Department of Defense from 15 to 20 billion dollars annually. The need of the Ministry of the Interior of 10 to 15 billion dollars annually. And require the popular crowd and the Awakening and clans that work with the government to $ 10 billion a year and of course this is what Iraq was commissioned in 2014.
With the beginning of 2014, Iraq has been the World Bank's $ 18 billion in the Central Bank of Iraq $ 70 billion has been disbursed all of Iraq no longer has only approximately $ 400 million of the total is now only 88 billion, which was owned by 2014.
In the case of Iraq as a case has no oil resources is supposed to depend on borrowing countries of the world. But who will lend Iraq.?
The United States and neighboring countries, the Gulf States and the European Union will not do that.
Iran and Iraq can not lending these large sums of money which is also suffering from lower oil prices. In addition to the burden of Hezbollah and Hamas funding and the Syrian regime and the Houthis.
If Iraq continues on the current struggle and preferred financing the Department of Defense and the Interior the amount remaining 24.5 from oil revenues and this amounts to not enough even though the United States she shared in the conflict because the US Congress has appropriated $ 5 billion just to fight Daash includes fighting in Syria and Iraq ... he has to solve all the ministries rest stop payment of salaries and the provision of services and even for the provision of electricity and health services.
If Iraq stopped fighting Daash and use the amount of $ 24.5 billion for the remainder of oil export revenues to fund the operating budget, amounting to $ 71 billion by 2013 budget, he Moazvin salaries cut and pay state salaries to third with a portion of state services stop. Note that the loss of Iraq built infrastructure of bridges, roads, headquarters and government departments and buildings, homes and military heritage and losses and other estimated at approximately $ 300 billion.
To now is the conflict in Iraq is a State against extremism or terrorism, even with some of the abuse on a particular component, but if you are absent or weakened of the army and police, which are quasi-neutral security institution will collapse the entire situation and turn the conflict into a sectarian conflict between militias deployed in areas on a sectarian basis to protect them.
But if the others went to the establishment of a region as above calls for him now, a province south of salvation from this situation and the withdrawal of all military vehicles to him for salvation from Daash it ensures that Aistmr Daash attacking this region and which guarantees makes them for this class of Daash?.
Iraq's future as a nation at a crossroads and the Prime Minister, Dr. Haider al-Abadi to take bold decisions even if they are not subject political party to agree, in front of a period not exceeding six months can take advantage of the international, regional and local by consensus, and to act as the leader of a difficult stage of the history of Iraq.
There are eight steps if was sincere intention of the Iraqi government in eliminating Daash and they have Noaah genuine national reconciliation can perform these steps and I guarantee him the elimination of al Daash and return Iraq to the track during this period, to be frank and Oaqaan in dealing with problems facing the country.
First Alkhtoah
The announcement of a general amnesty for all of the Iraqis to take up arms after the break up sit-ins in Hawija and Anbar force and to refrain from talking about the blood on their hands, there is no political party or an armed group in Iraq has not blood on their hands. Such a move would pull the rug out from under Daash and Tsaf strength because according to estimates that there are approximately 45 000 fighters from Daash in Iraq, seven thousand fighters only are foreigners and the remaining two are Iraqis, some were forced to resort to Daash because of government policies or the previous phase, including the faces of tribal and tribal Loyalty to accuse some of the year's political leaders to some of the opponents of the year they are with Daash, forcing them to resort to it.
The second step
Accelerate the formation of Sunni power, whether the National Guard or other children of the provinces that are now under the control of Daash to impose security in which without the intervention force from outside these provinces so as not to provoke sectarian Alhzazih or nationalism in these areas and re-deployment of the army on the border after we lost .otaweid residents affected by the military operations and the release of detainees without charges and to accelerate the amendment de-Baathification law or accountability neutrophil who was uproots teachers and staff of Mosul, Anbar and Salah al-Din and leaves people like Alfalh and Hanan al.
The third step
Government policy change direction these areas and launch the hands of provincial and municipal councils and boards without compliance with the concepts of the state there that are trying to change them for the rest of the provinces :? Such that Anbar province is not a financial burden on oil imports produced by the provinces of the south and the north, which Vmhafezh Anbar have the ninth reserves in the world of pure phosphate owns expressing Hdodin them payoff of custom Loyalty agriculture where .wayza they are not obliged to study Odahm in curriculum matters to Ataném like some figures that there are political currents carry their names with great respect for them ... while the Companions and the wife of the Messenger of Allah curse and insult a day in some southern areas .omthelma that the Kurds have their own curricula entitled to these areas Aiza launch its own approaches as long as it Atsie to one and remain within the control of the Ministry of Education.
The fourth step
Cancel all mergers officers and associates who Ato through decision (Bremer) and decisions Maliki and turning them of security institutions to civilian government departments.
Step Five
Eliminate the bad ones that suffer bureaucratic state and the armies of staff in the hierarchy of sectarian and without efficiency.
Step Six
The elimination of existing and dominant theocratic rule of God through cleric through the activation of laws even Ananaj cleric issues fatwa to political change if Doe was clinging to power chair and other fatwas that contradict the Constitution of the State.
Step Seven
Formation of a committee consisting of the Prime Minister and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Office of Financial Supervision and the Integrity Commission to audit the accounts and property of every official and lawmaker after 2003 to 2014 and return all the stolen money.
Step Eight
Speed up passage criminalize sectarian law called for some MPs and political activists.
Omar Hassan - Baghdad
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
