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"FAW" paint a general map of the forecast decline in trade flows and the stability of the main agricultural commodity prices
09/10/2015
(Independent) .. According to a report "Food Outlook" issued today by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of agricultural goods in the world is currently going through low prices and stability in the period.
According to forecasts, "FAO" in its report monthly special season, that most of the grains and vegetable oils, which saw a sharp rise of leaps during the period from 2007 to early 2011 prices, has taken on the path of non-volatility and decline.
Among the reasons behind the current trend comes high inventory levels, and the sharp drop in oil prices, and the power of renewable US dollar Katjahat does not seem to be on the verge of change in the short term, although unexpected shocks such as the negative effects of weather on crops can not be excluded from this The overall picture.
In the meantime index Organization "FAO" record food prices, which constitutes proof of the movement is based on business dealings by measuring five major food commodities prices in the international markets, down to its lowest level in six months in July / August. But the new figures released today pointed to a slight rise by two-thirds of a percentage point from its lowest level as a whole in August / August, to 165.3 points ... as the level is still below the 18.9 percent recorded in the previous year.
He said an expert with the goods, "FAO", Adam Prakash, and Frederique strange in a separate analysis of the situation, that "the statistical thrust of the current situation is reflected in the recent shifts in the behavior of the market make us expect a trend of falling prices, and the stability of price volatility."
However, the price paths during the past few years and possible future trajectories, are not identical in the case of all commodity groups. Rice prices tend to move independently of other grains, while sugar prices remained volatile, always having lost half its value and restore it 12 times since 1990. consistent meat and dairy prices, with the broader trend, but as commodities are perishable, it is often consistent with the the trend in the subsequent period of time.
The basic grains, at the heart of the direction of the price drop as a result of many years of abundant harvest all over the world, as well as reach the reserve stocks to record highs. According to the summary, "FAW" last "grain and demand for supplies", is currently being reduced such precautionary balances slowly, and is likely to shut down world grain stocks in 2016 season at a level of 638 million tons, a decrease of four million tons from the beginning of the season.
At the same time, world cereal production fell this year to 2.534 billion tons, an increase of six million tons below last month's forecast and 0.9 percent less than the record level of 2014; and attributed it to the most to the decline in corn production in the United States, where he fell prices by as much as half since July 2012.
Lower prices, and food security
The editors also pointed Bulletin "Food Outlook" that the decline in food prices, "seems to be a blessing on food security," particularly for families that spend a large part of their income to buy food.
In fact, it is likely that the food import bill goes down worldwide in 2015, to US $ 1.09 trillion, the lowest level in five years, a decrease of about 20 per cent from the record level of $ 1.35 trillion in 2014. He also encouraged freight rates to decline this fall in which cereals, dairy products, meat and sugar contributed to a large extent.
However, the "FAW" report also warned that the overall benefits calculated for the fall in prices would require to bear in mind the impact on reducing the income of farmers.
This, and also likely to income margins shrink in the case of farmers in rural areas will reduce agricultural investment, which has been blamed for not previously on the adequacy of the sharp rise in prices over the past decade. It can also require lower yields provide incentives to increase investment in agriculture and rural economic services, especially credit, and roads, and storage facilities.
Decline in trade flows
While global production continues strong and continues to stockpile high ... is heading internationally traded grain size to decrease and outweighed expectations that a balance of about 364 million tons in the 2015/2016 season (July 2015 / June 2016), a decrease of 2.9 per cent over the previous period.
As for what drives this downward trend is the wheat crop in particular, at most because of the decline in imports to Asia - and particularly in the Islamic Republic of Iran - and by the countries of North Africa; as well as in the case of coarse grains, where the decline in demand in Asia even though it is expected to increase both the continents of Africa, Europe and imports.
By the second, and moving cassava trade to grow by 19 per cent to a record check, due to the most demand on the part of China to cheaper raw material for animal feed, power generation, and industrial sectors.
With regard to the trade volume of seafood occurring among the also rising, but currency exchange rates changes receive a heavy shadow over the sector, as it made the strength of the dollar of the United States, a major export shrimp destination while the impact of the weakness of other currencies was negative in contrast to a variety of sectors including Norwegian salmon, Chinese industry and import-dependent fish processing. However, it remains expected to grow fish production by 2.6 per cent this year, driven by aquaculture, which tends to expand at a rate weakness Strip. (End)
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09/10/2015
(Independent) .. According to a report "Food Outlook" issued today by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of agricultural goods in the world is currently going through low prices and stability in the period.
According to forecasts, "FAO" in its report monthly special season, that most of the grains and vegetable oils, which saw a sharp rise of leaps during the period from 2007 to early 2011 prices, has taken on the path of non-volatility and decline.
Among the reasons behind the current trend comes high inventory levels, and the sharp drop in oil prices, and the power of renewable US dollar Katjahat does not seem to be on the verge of change in the short term, although unexpected shocks such as the negative effects of weather on crops can not be excluded from this The overall picture.
In the meantime index Organization "FAO" record food prices, which constitutes proof of the movement is based on business dealings by measuring five major food commodities prices in the international markets, down to its lowest level in six months in July / August. But the new figures released today pointed to a slight rise by two-thirds of a percentage point from its lowest level as a whole in August / August, to 165.3 points ... as the level is still below the 18.9 percent recorded in the previous year.
He said an expert with the goods, "FAO", Adam Prakash, and Frederique strange in a separate analysis of the situation, that "the statistical thrust of the current situation is reflected in the recent shifts in the behavior of the market make us expect a trend of falling prices, and the stability of price volatility."
However, the price paths during the past few years and possible future trajectories, are not identical in the case of all commodity groups. Rice prices tend to move independently of other grains, while sugar prices remained volatile, always having lost half its value and restore it 12 times since 1990. consistent meat and dairy prices, with the broader trend, but as commodities are perishable, it is often consistent with the the trend in the subsequent period of time.
The basic grains, at the heart of the direction of the price drop as a result of many years of abundant harvest all over the world, as well as reach the reserve stocks to record highs. According to the summary, "FAW" last "grain and demand for supplies", is currently being reduced such precautionary balances slowly, and is likely to shut down world grain stocks in 2016 season at a level of 638 million tons, a decrease of four million tons from the beginning of the season.
At the same time, world cereal production fell this year to 2.534 billion tons, an increase of six million tons below last month's forecast and 0.9 percent less than the record level of 2014; and attributed it to the most to the decline in corn production in the United States, where he fell prices by as much as half since July 2012.
Lower prices, and food security
The editors also pointed Bulletin "Food Outlook" that the decline in food prices, "seems to be a blessing on food security," particularly for families that spend a large part of their income to buy food.
In fact, it is likely that the food import bill goes down worldwide in 2015, to US $ 1.09 trillion, the lowest level in five years, a decrease of about 20 per cent from the record level of $ 1.35 trillion in 2014. He also encouraged freight rates to decline this fall in which cereals, dairy products, meat and sugar contributed to a large extent.
However, the "FAW" report also warned that the overall benefits calculated for the fall in prices would require to bear in mind the impact on reducing the income of farmers.
This, and also likely to income margins shrink in the case of farmers in rural areas will reduce agricultural investment, which has been blamed for not previously on the adequacy of the sharp rise in prices over the past decade. It can also require lower yields provide incentives to increase investment in agriculture and rural economic services, especially credit, and roads, and storage facilities.
Decline in trade flows
While global production continues strong and continues to stockpile high ... is heading internationally traded grain size to decrease and outweighed expectations that a balance of about 364 million tons in the 2015/2016 season (July 2015 / June 2016), a decrease of 2.9 per cent over the previous period.
As for what drives this downward trend is the wheat crop in particular, at most because of the decline in imports to Asia - and particularly in the Islamic Republic of Iran - and by the countries of North Africa; as well as in the case of coarse grains, where the decline in demand in Asia even though it is expected to increase both the continents of Africa, Europe and imports.
By the second, and moving cassava trade to grow by 19 per cent to a record check, due to the most demand on the part of China to cheaper raw material for animal feed, power generation, and industrial sectors.
With regard to the trade volume of seafood occurring among the also rising, but currency exchange rates changes receive a heavy shadow over the sector, as it made the strength of the dollar of the United States, a major export shrimp destination while the impact of the weakness of other currencies was negative in contrast to a variety of sectors including Norwegian salmon, Chinese industry and import-dependent fish processing. However, it remains expected to grow fish production by 2.6 per cent this year, driven by aquaculture, which tends to expand at a rate weakness Strip. (End)
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