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"Iraq," is planning to sweep the next elections and Maliki feared (a Sunni coup),
18/12/2011 21:17
Baghdad / Washington / Orr News
Source revealed that there is a new work program for the Iraqi list aims to unite the Sunni front and the liberals and secularists in blocks come under the alliance itself, to work to develop implementation plans for the Saudi program the British stage of the election to come. According to the source, "the process of putting the final touches will begin a phased implementation of the planned program mentioned during the first month of next year, where the program puts a higher target has access to more than 160 parliamentary seat for the next stage of the election. "
The source says that "financiers Gulf and the British as well as Europeans are counting on to pull the rug out from under the feet of Washington, which rely on its alliances with the current parliamentary blocs imposed after 2003 and took a large part of the legitimacy of the work in the civil administrator Paul Bremer, who founded the personalities and parties not not on the level of efficiency rise to fight in the political action in Iraq, which is the biggest blunders in Iraq in the American work of the founding of (Iraq the U.S.).
The source said "Saudi Arabia is leading the Forum Gulf ally with Britain that seeks to overthrow the equation as long as the opportunity that the United States preoccupied with its war and political and intelligence Alaguetasidih with Iran." The source reveals that "the budget allocated for the implementation of the program mentioned more than $ 2 billion to cover all provinces without exception, as Israel plays a pivotal role in this alliance and is awaiting approval of their demands to confirm its mark in the program."
Other sources familiar with, indicated that "the Iranian threat was among the priorities of British Coalition (GCC) Israel, and therefore, any closer and that was religiously will determine the intended objectives of this work to be (Shiite Iraq) almost within the framework of goals, as they meet with Iran in the axis of the convergence of religious religious, though they tasted poison US-Iranian relationship more bad than others. " In the light of what was mentioned in an interview with the source, the new alliance will include all the forces and armed wings, which were close to the stands on the threshold of Foreign Affairs of the political process.
And confirms Michael Knights, an expert who specializes in military and security affairs of Iraq and the Persian Gulf states, he went to him informed source, suggesting in an article published by Network Kaontrbenj to the fears of al-Maliki (Sunni coup), subsidized Saudis and Kuwaitis.
The importance of the article, which sheds light on some of the rules of the political game in Iraq and the agency publishes the text of Ur:
Now take the bilateral relations between Baghdad and Washington last track is completely different from the previous tracks. This must be on Washington to express their commitment to the rules of the game in Iraqi politics, "any respect for constitutional principles," rather than support any specific political outcome. And that means "who is responsible." And should the United States must give a clear message that it will monitor closely the actions of Baghdad and that future sales of weapons, training and support diplomatic and trade relations will depend on adherence to these rules.
And requires the launching of this new route on Washington and Baghdad to initiate the development foundation of the "strategic relationship real" ease the fears of the Iraqi government and security stresses at the same time it has resisted the United States on Iran and demanded by the side of respect for human rights, in addition to other significant issues, you may look by Iraqi officials in detail.
With the completion of the withdrawal of the United States military from Iraq, there has been two events in recent days, and were an opportunity to make a clear statement about Washington's policy to post-withdrawal toward Baghdad: in the tenth of December he met with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki with President Obama at the White House, and in the fourteenth of December U.S. President delivered a speech on Iraq at the base of "Fort Bragg", North Carolina. The focus of this new beginning of bilateral relations as an ideal to put red lines on the protection of American citizens in Iraq and cooperation in the fight against terrorism and human rights and the observance of democratic norms. Iraq should not be a place where the guerrillas backed by Iran threat to U.S. interests, or could be for an authoritarian regime that violates the rights of its citizens with impunity.
Their journey was Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to Washington for granted, the pressure of the leader of Sadr and his supporters on the prime minister to cancel the visit since mid-October. Because al-Maliki decided to visit the United States, despite these pressures, it refers to the ongoing desire to build a strategic relationship with the United States. The recent steps that he feels insecure on a number of fronts. Although paranoia had - a feature that seems to have been generated during the long years in exile from Iraq under Saddam Hussein - but fears that al-Maliki is based on some basis in fact:
- Fears of a coup .. It seems that the intelligence reports provided by the Government of Libya or Syria (with varying media reports in this regard) has fueled fears of a coup Maliki-backed Sunni Persian Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
- Possibility of the intensification of violence ... Could see the first months of 2012, a big increase in violence by Sunni insurgents if he decides to cross the northern and central parts of Iraq and the government will test their capabilities. Similarly, the Shiite militant groups such as the "League of the Righteous" and "Hezbollah Brigades" may test the government's determination to maintain its monopoly of force in the south and protect the continued U.S. presence.
- Iranian pressure. Despite strong support from Tehran, he has sought always to maximize independence by retaining the option to request U.S. support as a counterweight. Now, with the departure of U.S. forces, it has become more vulnerable than before to pressure Iran.
- Decline in political support. Play U.S. support for Maliki has long played an important role in the protection of no-confidence vote in parliament. Since 2010, the U.S. withdrawal may be imminent - and Washington's desire to avoid any obvious thing that would hinder it - has impeded the additional calls to impeach him by the legislature. However, the prospects for a move against him is growing slowly, with the resentment of Sunni Arab blocs of de-Baathification policy and the impatience of the Kurdish parties on its inability to implement the most basic demands nineteen.
Against this background, the balance of power between Washington and Baghdad was changed in 2011. Vbrod Obama administration toward Baghdad - which is evident in their limited negotiating a new security agreement - has sent a strong message (and obviously unintended) that Iraq needs America more than America needs to Iraq. This has increased the influence of the United States.
As for "what he wants al-Maliki," the renewal year to support the United States will provide some reassurance to the owners face during any of the problems listed above. Although Iran does not continue to be influential and it is clear, however, that the Islamic Republic is a source of volatile and violent threat unlike the U.S., which is the external force and not a country of neighbors. For the owners, Washington is "the devil you know": ally has a definite military capabilities, and a strong voice among Sunni and Kurdish factions in the country, and the axes of a unique potential to neighboring Arab countries and the international community. Accordingly, it is likely to include a list of requests from al-Maliki and Washington, as follows:
- Political support .. As mentioned above, there is still al-Maliki is seeking political cover from Washington to protect it from the no-confidence vote or a coup. In Iraq, will be considered by both the public and some politicians to visit the White House in support of his leadership, although his followers to practice suspicious of undermining the independence of the judiciary and the marginalization of Parliament and to exercise control over the constitutionality of military appointments, and the arrest or harassment of political opponents by using a mixture of legal mechanisms shaky.
- The good offices of ... al-Maliki needs to support Washington in the construction or repair of relations within Iraq (ie, with the Kurds and Sunnis), as well as with the countries of "GCC" and the international community.
- Guarantee the security implicit ... will seek al-Maliki to use the "Strategic Framework Agreement" and bilateral meetings with American leaders to promote the unity of Iraqi territory, the basic Iranian actions "aggressive", both along the land border, which extends for a distance of 900 miles or over the area of Iraq's air and water regional levels.
- Security assistance .. Although the sales of arms "high value", which include the F-16 S tanks and M1 are very important, but that the forms of security assistance, which received the largest estimate of Baghdad, is the support short-term provided by the Intelligence and U.S. Special Forces, as well as providing training and equipment - in the long term - to the intelligence and security system in Iraq.
In the framework of the "balance", is still helping Iraq to complete the processes of stability in the country and strengthening the independence of Baghdad from Tehran represent important tests of American resolve. The United States has much to offer to Iraq, including helping to ease tensions with Kuwait, and unfreeze relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, and the establishment of more prominent role of Iraq in regional and international discussions on issues of importance to Baghdad. Such participation and provide a fertile ground to build a strategic relationship, including a real trade-offs. Although the relationship needs to grow slowly, but Washington should draw some of the fixed-line to test each of Iraq's commitment to and influence at this stage, the opening in the era after the withdrawal:
- Protection of presence ... and a deal with the diplomatic community and the large U.S. contractors in Iraq, the first test and the most important of Baghdad's commitment to this relationship. In particular, Washington should make sure that the Iraqi government will prevent the harassment or attacks on the U.S. government and commercial entities affiliated to it. It should also prepare contingency plans to stop the demonstration of diplomatic and aid U.S. security if Baghdad fails in this regard.
- Cooperation in the fight against terrorism ... And works for the continued presence of U.S. special forces and intelligence collection systems, the U.S. in Iraq to support the security needs of both the United States and Iraq. Accordingly, you should re-emphasize the presence of the new memorandum of understanding negotiated by the "Higher Coordination Committee" between the two countries. It will be early test of the relations of intelligence on Baghdad's decision whether to extradite Ali Musa Daqduq to the United States or not. (And a Daqduq recruits Hezbollah Lebanese helped to plan the kidnapping of five American soldiers in Iraq and then killed in January 2007).
The United States should issue a statement expressing concern about the political rights and human rights, as they have to put lines red on human rights and compel Iraq to fulfill its international commitments signed by the termination of the transaction U.S. tolerant exceptionally to Baghdad in this regard since 2003.
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