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Five scenarios to contain the Iraqi crisis?
Palm - A study of modern political current political crisis in Iraq to the five scenarios projected for the future of Iraq as a united country, in light of the escalation of sectarian and try to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the exclusion of his political opponents after the departure of U.S. troops (according to some politicians).
The study, issued by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, Iraq's future as a united country is still unclear, as the conflict of the current political hides another conflict about the division of the wealth of the country, especially the law of the fuel and the fair distribution of revenues and a solution to the status of Kirkuk legal.
She added that the arrest warrant issued by the Iraqi judiciary against the Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi has alarmed Iraqi and observers, and their questions about the intentions of the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who was accused Btazim situation is serious and unwarranted but to look for increased powers get rid of political rivals.
The study, titled "Iraq after the U.S. military withdrawal", the first scenario for the future of the current crisis in Iraq is continuing to drag other crises, and more violence and blockage of the prospects, especially with the possibility of reflection of the implications of the Syrian crisis in Iraq, may cause a military coup as a reaction in the case of sliding the country into sectarian violence.
Although the Iraqi army was re-arranged to make sure not to penetrate the Baathists to him, he is in the case of a major crisis in the country may find itself obliged to intervene, may occur at the behest of some external parties for control of the country, but the study ruled out this scenario because it is incompatible with the atmosphere prevailing in the region now.
The second scenario, according to the study, revolves around the possibility of a division of Default and the formation of an actual Iraqi provinces, under the insistence of the Shiite bloc to be in leadership whatever the nature of the regime, while insisting Kurds need to continue under a federal system where they have the independence of a relative, and he wants to Year distribution of wealth more fairly between the different regions.
The study did not rule out this scenario, especially as the current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki did not prove that he seeks to unite the country in view of its resolutions and his political positions after the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
In the case of Maliki's insistence on autocracy, according to the third scenario for the study, and formed his government dominated by elements of mass politics, perhaps in alliance with the Kurds, it arises from the feeling of oppression and injustice's political bloc, Iyad Allawi, a core list of winning the election, the result the menu will shift to the opposition.
The study warned that the fragile Iraqi democracy may not bear this kind of heavy exercises that lead to the transfer of the main menu of winning the election to the opposition, while the natural place is the authority, by virtue of what the text of the Constitution itself.
The result of this push and pull responses tense, especially after procedures "judicial" and "repressive" Last targeting figures from political rivals, the country Vtenslq here also to the violence that will revolve around the lines of sectarian division.
In the fourth scenario, the study excluded happen easily, is to dissolve parliament and hold new elections to be premature as called for in some of the political forces now, but Maliki will do everything possible to cripple the ability of rivals and to prevent his opponents from achieving this scenario that does not guarantee his return to power quickly, and may not accept, however reluctantly, and when he finds out that the exclusion from power was imminent and that his only hope is to return to the ballot box.
The scenario V is the most optimistic, is subject to agree the Kurds and the Iraqi List and the opponents of Maliki, the Iraqi National Coalition on the removal of Nuri al-Maliki and assign someone else to form a government instead of him, which seems a solution FIS to the current crisis and support this scenario the general assumption that al-Maliki has become part of the problem and not part of the solution.
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Palm - A study of modern political current political crisis in Iraq to the five scenarios projected for the future of Iraq as a united country, in light of the escalation of sectarian and try to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the exclusion of his political opponents after the departure of U.S. troops (according to some politicians).
The study, issued by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, Iraq's future as a united country is still unclear, as the conflict of the current political hides another conflict about the division of the wealth of the country, especially the law of the fuel and the fair distribution of revenues and a solution to the status of Kirkuk legal.
She added that the arrest warrant issued by the Iraqi judiciary against the Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi has alarmed Iraqi and observers, and their questions about the intentions of the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who was accused Btazim situation is serious and unwarranted but to look for increased powers get rid of political rivals.
The study, titled "Iraq after the U.S. military withdrawal", the first scenario for the future of the current crisis in Iraq is continuing to drag other crises, and more violence and blockage of the prospects, especially with the possibility of reflection of the implications of the Syrian crisis in Iraq, may cause a military coup as a reaction in the case of sliding the country into sectarian violence.
Although the Iraqi army was re-arranged to make sure not to penetrate the Baathists to him, he is in the case of a major crisis in the country may find itself obliged to intervene, may occur at the behest of some external parties for control of the country, but the study ruled out this scenario because it is incompatible with the atmosphere prevailing in the region now.
The second scenario, according to the study, revolves around the possibility of a division of Default and the formation of an actual Iraqi provinces, under the insistence of the Shiite bloc to be in leadership whatever the nature of the regime, while insisting Kurds need to continue under a federal system where they have the independence of a relative, and he wants to Year distribution of wealth more fairly between the different regions.
The study did not rule out this scenario, especially as the current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki did not prove that he seeks to unite the country in view of its resolutions and his political positions after the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
In the case of Maliki's insistence on autocracy, according to the third scenario for the study, and formed his government dominated by elements of mass politics, perhaps in alliance with the Kurds, it arises from the feeling of oppression and injustice's political bloc, Iyad Allawi, a core list of winning the election, the result the menu will shift to the opposition.
The study warned that the fragile Iraqi democracy may not bear this kind of heavy exercises that lead to the transfer of the main menu of winning the election to the opposition, while the natural place is the authority, by virtue of what the text of the Constitution itself.
The result of this push and pull responses tense, especially after procedures "judicial" and "repressive" Last targeting figures from political rivals, the country Vtenslq here also to the violence that will revolve around the lines of sectarian division.
In the fourth scenario, the study excluded happen easily, is to dissolve parliament and hold new elections to be premature as called for in some of the political forces now, but Maliki will do everything possible to cripple the ability of rivals and to prevent his opponents from achieving this scenario that does not guarantee his return to power quickly, and may not accept, however reluctantly, and when he finds out that the exclusion from power was imminent and that his only hope is to return to the ballot box.
The scenario V is the most optimistic, is subject to agree the Kurds and the Iraqi List and the opponents of Maliki, the Iraqi National Coalition on the removal of Nuri al-Maliki and assign someone else to form a government instead of him, which seems a solution FIS to the current crisis and support this scenario the general assumption that al-Maliki has become part of the problem and not part of the solution.
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