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The value of the Iraqi currency and structural economic imbalances

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By: d. Kamal Al-Basri and Mr. Mudar Sbahi - 5/13/2013
article seeks to examine the value of the Iraqi currency fluctuations and interpretation of structural imbalances and weak governance vocabulary application and other behavioral factors. And concludes that the following factors may have led to increased demand for foreign currencies and shortage of supply: External political, and weak business environment, the economic and fiscal policy, and the lack of political and economic stability, and the weakness of the productive capacity of local, and that the improvement in the rate of per capita income of Iraq was a factor is the other, weak governance and the rule of law, and the decline of remittances family from abroad, and the growing presence remittance companies and financial brokerage firms (parallel market), and the emergence of areas of trade at border crossing points. value of the Iraqi currency and the imbalance of economic structural seeks article to study fluctuations in the value of the Iraqi currency and interpretation structural imbalances and poor application of good governance vocabulary and other behavioral factors. 1. Structural imbalances derive the Iraqi currency recovered from the substance of the economy, and it can not be studying the stability of the value of the currency away from the deal with the economic reality. Currently economy suffers from weakness in its components core, boils down to the reality of the Iraqi economy through the reflection in the components of GDP in 2011, where a different sectors to the GDP as follows: Oil 54.74% and Agriculture 4.15% and the industry about 1.83% .... Etc. It is clear that the Iraqi economy's dependence on the oil sector. We have increased the value of gross domestic product at current prices from 53 499 to 211 310 000 000 Iraqi dinars for the period 2004-2011, for the same period increased the value of gross domestic product at current prices excluding oil from 22 691 to 95 822 ملياردينار. problem is that when oil revenues are much bigger than the financial returns obtained from taxes, the government will find usually have at their disposal a significant financial asset earning easy (not achieved at the expense of the financial resources of the citizens). This phenomenon will be encouraged in the absence of democracy (sense full) to give the government ample space to act on public money are inefficient, and examples of this have to resort governments to adopt: 1) economic policies sterile in its effects: represented an increase of salaries and wages away from the accounts of labor productivity, The expansion in the creation of employment for the purposes of non-productivity resulting them inflated prices, and pursue a policy of supporting non-economic updated deformation in the structure of the economy and market indicators, and the trend towards spending unproductive political aims in essence to link citizen power. 2) policy spending is economic: represented activities not its economic justification كالمنح aid and open circles foreign diplomatic, cultural do not add real value to the economy and the citizens, and at the expense of the areas of economic urgency related to the dignity of the citizen. result of all the foregoing, the private sector in these countries enjoy the presence of a weak and marginal, because it does not enjoy the support (as is the case in the public sector), which is concentrated in the areas of economic, commercial and service. The absence of the real role of the private sector means the absence of creativity and speed of adjustment to market needs and provide employment outside the public sector. The uniqueness of the public sector production and the absence of private sector competition lead to the continued deterioration of the efficiency of public sector output, الامرالذي requires government intervention and protection of the public sector through financial support and customs protection policy (currently support annual rate of 3 billion dollars). Thus, the government is working to protect the institutions of inert productivity at the expense of the citizen, who he unchanged obliged to buy goods or services at a higher price and the quality is poor. This usually sacrifice and also emphasizes global trials does not lead in the short term and not run into improved performance and efficiency of the production of the public sector. The absence of political role of the private sector turns citizens into a cake and hired government employees belonging to the directions of the government, which is no doubt it would affect the independence of the individual from the government and then the breadth Square independent civil society organizations. To move the government in those contexts lead eventually to a split citizens into two factions different types of users, and others. because of limited job opportunities that could be created by the public sector, the government is seeking to create jobs by strengthening the role of the security by increasing the number of employees of the police and army and take advantage of surplus cash in the purchase of arms and military equipment. The growth of military capabilities encouraged to address the internal and external differences militarily, and then pre-empt any signs of growth and development in absolute terms. On the other hand that the adoption of oil revenues on the price of oil world market displays the economies of those countries to the waves of the tide, which is reflected by the sharp fluctuations in oil revenues (as Invert in planning the federal budget from 2008 to 2009. Finally, the oil revenues of the States usually benefit including the cities over the countryside, and this is what causes a migration from the countryside to the city, but no doubt that this migration is usually in short period of time resulting in bottlenecks sharp due to insufficient supply of services in relation to demand and to social and economic problems manifold. and Aaktefi impact of this situation on the the level of services available in the city to exceed the weakness of the contribution of rural areas in the agricultural and livestock production and for changes in the fertility of the earth, and that lead to heavy losses. fact that what progress we can find him credibility in the Iraqi economy, especially during the period of time 1968 - 2003, no doubt that the effects of these policies and nature has not changed dramatically, due to the political pressure of existing and reflected the weakness of political will to change. 2. market value of the Iraqi currency was issued in 1930, the first special law to issue dinar as the currency of Iraq, and in 1932 was issued the Iraqi dinar and the dinar = 3.3 pound sterling, and in 1958 was delinking the dinar with lb was linked to the U.S. dollar on the basis of the dinar = 3.3 U.S. dollars. during the period from 1932 until 1990 was issued 12 اصدارية of the dinar, and after 1990 were printed currency locally Press Mesopotamia and the exchange rate last, and after 2003 was Print issuing coins new dinar, and became the exchange rate floating throughout. Figure (1) illustrates the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar the official at the Central Bank (Auction currency) and in the parallel market (exchange of the local market) for the period from January 2011 to February 2013. Source: Central Bank of Iraq is the local currency is part of the sovereignty of the state and also is reflecting the amount of economic well-being, and plays the exchange rate played an important role in the economic activities of the States, whether that activity commercial or investment, which occupies the exchange rate hub in monetary policy, where It can be used as a target or a tool, he is also an indication of competitive state through its effect on the components of economic growth, such as investment and the degree of openness to international trade and capital flows, and the development of the financial sector. known as the exchange rate: is the ratio that gets on the basis swap foreign exchange currency National . determined exchange rate, according to the law of supply and demand, the more demand the price of the currency and the lower demand for less price. there are two types of drainage systems used by States to determine the value of its currency: system of fixed exchange: are installed currency exchange rate either to a single currency is characterized by attributes of a particular Kalqoh and stability. either to a basket of currencies based on the currencies of trading partners, key, or currency constituent unit of special drawing rights, or metals Althmnah such as gold and silver. systems flexible exchange: characterized by flexibility and usability of the amendment on the basis of certain criteria, such as economic indicators. has been tracking the state system flotation orbit where the authorities to amend exchange rates frequently based on the level of the reserve to its foreign currency and gold., or use the free float, which allows for the value of currencies to change up and down according to the market, this system allows for the economic policies of liberation from the constraints of the exchange rate. Itathersar exchange first measures the central bank which represents the key management in the state to identify and manage monetary policy so as to contribute to the achievement of economic goals that are looking her state, and secondly commercial banks and remittance companies financial terms intervene in the market to execute the orders of their clients or for its own account, where these centers collect orders customers and they Palmqasat banking, Third, brokerage firms are intermediaries militants who collects Omer purchase or sale of hard currency for the benefit of several banks or dealers others away from transparency. factors affecting the currency in Iraq recently and over the past few months, decreased the value of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, reaching in some cases the market Parallel 1300 dinars per dollar, after it was stable on the rate of 1185 dinars per dollar, despite the stability of the selling price of the Central Bank's 1166 dinars with commission of 13 dinars for transfers any 1179 dinars and 1171 dinars to the sale of cash and this indicates to the high demand for the dollar in the domestic market and the factors the following: 1 - External factors: formed a political and economic crises in neighboring countries (Syria and Iran) and embodied in need of these countries to the dollar coin and foreign currency. you received is lower local currency in those countries and reflected down the price of exports to Iraq, and create windows to attract dollar Iraq to those countries through the stock attractive to the Iraqis and at the same time a source of hard currency to the Iranians and the Syrians. On the other hand there is a thread social and family with these countries may also be a port for the exit of the dollar but it is difficult to predict Bmekdarh. 2 - Business Environment Economic: represented the factors that lead the result to the escape of domestic capital and the decline of foreign investors, including political instability and the absence of the rule of law in economic transactions. no doubt that the period of time that followed in 2008 saw an improvement in the security situation and then in the rate of inflation and the exchange rate. However, the economic environment is still repellent to work there encourages project planning medium-or long-term. causing it to limit the activities of some businessmen and commercial projects yielding profit fast, but I doubt that the percentage of it turning to countries other scarce liquidity arising from the impact of the financial crisis that began in late 2008 ( was ranked Iraq 165 of 183 countries in 2012) 3 - fiscal policy: years have seen the previous high levels of government spending at rates greater than any other country in the world (increased public spending of 34.6 trillion dinars in 2004 to 117.1 trillion dinars in 2012) and most images spending is Consumer lead to a rise in spending outside world (travel, medical services and seminars, and import of goods and investments in real estate projects, etc.), and also led to a rise in net Iraqi currency traded amounting to 36 trillion dinars in 2013, raising the demand for foreign currency, where the value of imports Iraqi 37.3027 billion U.S. dollars in 2010 to 40.6325 billion dollars in 2011 at a rate of change stood at 8.9%. 4 - double tax policies: and also include the non-application of the law of the customs tariff and of course that result in flooding the market with goods and services payable to the dollar in most cases. as The weakness of the efficiency of collection of receivables Aldharbah ensures verify additional profits may find their way because of poor credit Iraqi banking abroad Authority dollars. 5 - political and economic stability: Because that Iraq states described as phase transition, and the political and economic stability, we find the proportion of individuals maintain accounts in foreign banks abroad usually be of senior officials and wealthy, and increasingly these transfers directly proportional to the height of the oil revenues. 6 - double the production capacity of local: that the improvement in the rate of per capita income of Iraq of 1670 dollars to 5400 dollars makes looking for initiating more in terms of quantity and quality. reflected This factor in the market by spending outside on the import of machinery and new materials or through increased spending on consumer goods, foreign. 7 - The weakness of good governance and the rule of law: and reflected Bagr public money, corruption, and an example of the determination of estimates for projects with more than its real value, lead naturally the case and raise the frequency conversion of the Iraqi dinar to the dollar. 8 - الحولات family from abroad: in previous years there was a significant proportion of الحولات family from abroad are to the inside and on the impact of improvement in the rate of per capita income of Iraq, but these transfers have eased currently ranges great. 9 - remittance companies and financial brokerage firms (parallel market): The presence of these companies to encourage practicing foreign remittances of cash and which constitute pressure on asset of the dollar and was the first adoption of transfers documentary. 10 - low incomes foreign currency non-oil due to lower grants and international aid to restore reconstruction and the decline in the U.S. presence in Iraq Akhas. 11 - areas of trade at border crossing points: that the presence of these areas encouraged to pay cash in dollars directly at the points of contact border, which thus leads to high demand direct on the dollar. recommendations that what gets distorted in the structure of the Iraqi economy is a foregone conclusion for economic policy rentier, is not expected to control this deformation extent near. as the institutional work requires the application of vocabulary governance of the adoption of talent, vision strategy, sense of responsibility, transparency, ensure the rule of law, ensure participation and acceptance unanimously and the achievement of equality which goals can not be achieved also in the near term. generally that the solutions in the monetary policy requires a long time to achieve the desired results, based on the factors affecting the local currency in Iraq find it necessary to divide solutions and procedures into two parts: quick fixes (short-term): 1 - Reduce pumping hard currency (cash sales) in the central bank auction and the adoption of increased foreign remittances. 2 - increase the price of cash sales at the central bank auction for the equivalent selling price in the auction of foreign remittances in order to cancel the profit realized because of the difference between the two rates. 3 - buy and sell currency foreign remittance companies and financial companies to mediate done by banks licensed in Iraq in order to reduce transactions not meeting the conditions and procedures adopted. 4 - forcing traders and dealers in the areas of trade exchange between Iraq and neighboring countries to deal transfer financial and letters of guarantee, rather than buying cash. 5 - Commitment transparency of information auction and cash transfers and develop an electronic system for information. radical solutions (long-term): 1 - Review the financial policy of the state and reduce inflation in spending operational. 2 - need to speed up plans for banking reform in order to facilitate the procedures for exchange the cash. 3 - to improve the tax code and work to expand horizontally while reducing tax evasion. 4 - Activating the law of customs tariff because of its important role in providing incentives for producers with feature economic, leading to a reduction in the volume of imports as well as improved revenue workforce. 5 - improve the business environment, the economic order to raise the efficiency of production for companies and productive enterprises local that will reduce imports and increase the intake of foreign exchange through export, as well as attract foreign investment. 6 - Using the mechanisms of modern electronic distribution of salaries and the use of instruments, banking and encourage saving. 7 - can issue a new currency or deletion of zeros from the current currency to have a positive psychological effects on the local currency dealers. d. Kamal Al-Basri and harmful Sbahi professor Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform April 2013



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therealbubbie

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here is a link of who MR Kamal Al-Basri is [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

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