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Oil price hit by OPEC numbers as Saudis stand firm on output
RIYADH. KAZINFORM - Crude took a fresh drubbing yesterday as OPEC reduced its estimate for 2015 demand, Kuwait offered new discounts to Asian customers and the Saudi oil minister questioned the need for an output cut, Kazinform has learnt from Bloomberg. "Why should I cut production?" Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said in response to reporters' questions yesterday in Lima, where he's attending United Nations climate talks. "This is a market and I'm selling in a market. Why should I cut?" The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut the forecast for how much crude it will need to produce next year by about 300,000 barrels a day to 28.9 million, the least since 2003. The group's three largest members, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, are offering oil to Asian buyers at the deepest discounts in at least 6 years. Brent crude, the international benchmark, increased 51 cents to $64.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange at 12:08 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday closed at the lowest since July 2009. West Texas Intermediate oil added 0.9 percent to $61.47. An Iranian official warned on Dec. 9 that prices could drop to $40 a barrel should OPEC's unity break down. Bonds issued by oil-exporting countries sank along with crude futures.
‘Paradigm Shift'
Brent crude slumped into a bear market this year amid speculation that Saudi Arabia and other nations in OPEC won't cut output in response to a surplus. Prices plunged 17 percent since the group met on Nov. 27 and agreed to maintain a 30 million-barrel-a-day production target. OPEC said in a monthly report today that demand for its crude is weakening amid expanding supplies from U.S. shale producers. "Naimi can't change policy within two weeks of an OPEC meeting; they've got to stick it out for at least a quarter to make it obvious that non-OPEC can't rely on high and stable prices," Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc, said by phone from London yesterday. "If it's clear there's damage done on non-OPEC, that's the time they can start calling the dogs off."
Any break in OPEC solidarity or price war will lead to an "enormous price-dive shock" that would push oil to $40 or $50, Mohammad Sadegh Memarian, an Iranian Oil Ministry official, said at a conference in Dubai Dec. 9.
"Saudi's paradigm shift clearly shows their frustration with increasing supplies globally, OPEC and non-OPEC both," Abhishek Deshpande, an analyst in London at Natixis SA, said by e-mail. "Saudi is testing the water here with unconventional non-OPEC producers."
Oil Discounters
Kuwait Petroleum Corp., the state-run oil company, will sell itscrude to Asian refiners at $3.95 a barrel below regional benchmarks next month, the company said yesterday. That's the biggest discount since December 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iraq's discount in Asia is the biggest in at least 11 years and Saudi Arabia widened the discount on Arab Light to the most in at least 14 years.
Crude will stay at about $65 a barrel for at least half a year until OPEC changes its production or economic growth revives, Nizar Al-Adsani, chief executive officer of state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said Dec. 8.
Prices now are below what 10 out of OPEC's 12 members need for their annual budgets to break even, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kuwait and Qatar are the exceptions. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest member, has $742.4 billion of reserve assets, data from the country's monetary agency show. OPEC's next meeting is due to take place on June 5.
Oil Exporters
Venezuela's benchmark dollar notes due 2027 fell 2.71 cents on the dollar to 43.95 cents yesterday, the lowest since September 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kazakhstan's $1.5 billion of securities due 2024 have tumbled 7.4 cents this month to 90.03 cents on the dollar. Venezuela is hoping for a special OPEC meeting before the regular June gathering, the country's Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Telesur network.
"Our position on OPEC is that they defend the fair price of our oil," said Ramirez. "We don't believe in the free market. We must make an effort to reduce overproduction of oil."
Demand for OPEC's crude next year will slump to the lowest since totaling 27.05 million a day in 2003, the group's data show. The group's 12 members last month pumped about 1.15 million barrels a day more than the 2015 level. OPEC produced 30.05 million a day in November, down 390,000 barrels a day from the previous month because of lower production in Libya, according to data from analysts and media organizations referred to in the report as "secondary sources."
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RIYADH. KAZINFORM - Crude took a fresh drubbing yesterday as OPEC reduced its estimate for 2015 demand, Kuwait offered new discounts to Asian customers and the Saudi oil minister questioned the need for an output cut, Kazinform has learnt from Bloomberg. "Why should I cut production?" Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said in response to reporters' questions yesterday in Lima, where he's attending United Nations climate talks. "This is a market and I'm selling in a market. Why should I cut?" The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut the forecast for how much crude it will need to produce next year by about 300,000 barrels a day to 28.9 million, the least since 2003. The group's three largest members, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, are offering oil to Asian buyers at the deepest discounts in at least 6 years. Brent crude, the international benchmark, increased 51 cents to $64.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange at 12:08 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday closed at the lowest since July 2009. West Texas Intermediate oil added 0.9 percent to $61.47. An Iranian official warned on Dec. 9 that prices could drop to $40 a barrel should OPEC's unity break down. Bonds issued by oil-exporting countries sank along with crude futures.
‘Paradigm Shift'
Brent crude slumped into a bear market this year amid speculation that Saudi Arabia and other nations in OPEC won't cut output in response to a surplus. Prices plunged 17 percent since the group met on Nov. 27 and agreed to maintain a 30 million-barrel-a-day production target. OPEC said in a monthly report today that demand for its crude is weakening amid expanding supplies from U.S. shale producers. "Naimi can't change policy within two weeks of an OPEC meeting; they've got to stick it out for at least a quarter to make it obvious that non-OPEC can't rely on high and stable prices," Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc, said by phone from London yesterday. "If it's clear there's damage done on non-OPEC, that's the time they can start calling the dogs off."
Any break in OPEC solidarity or price war will lead to an "enormous price-dive shock" that would push oil to $40 or $50, Mohammad Sadegh Memarian, an Iranian Oil Ministry official, said at a conference in Dubai Dec. 9.
"Saudi's paradigm shift clearly shows their frustration with increasing supplies globally, OPEC and non-OPEC both," Abhishek Deshpande, an analyst in London at Natixis SA, said by e-mail. "Saudi is testing the water here with unconventional non-OPEC producers."
Oil Discounters
Kuwait Petroleum Corp., the state-run oil company, will sell itscrude to Asian refiners at $3.95 a barrel below regional benchmarks next month, the company said yesterday. That's the biggest discount since December 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iraq's discount in Asia is the biggest in at least 11 years and Saudi Arabia widened the discount on Arab Light to the most in at least 14 years.
Crude will stay at about $65 a barrel for at least half a year until OPEC changes its production or economic growth revives, Nizar Al-Adsani, chief executive officer of state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said Dec. 8.
Prices now are below what 10 out of OPEC's 12 members need for their annual budgets to break even, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kuwait and Qatar are the exceptions. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest member, has $742.4 billion of reserve assets, data from the country's monetary agency show. OPEC's next meeting is due to take place on June 5.
Oil Exporters
Venezuela's benchmark dollar notes due 2027 fell 2.71 cents on the dollar to 43.95 cents yesterday, the lowest since September 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kazakhstan's $1.5 billion of securities due 2024 have tumbled 7.4 cents this month to 90.03 cents on the dollar. Venezuela is hoping for a special OPEC meeting before the regular June gathering, the country's Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Telesur network.
"Our position on OPEC is that they defend the fair price of our oil," said Ramirez. "We don't believe in the free market. We must make an effort to reduce overproduction of oil."
Demand for OPEC's crude next year will slump to the lowest since totaling 27.05 million a day in 2003, the group's data show. The group's 12 members last month pumped about 1.15 million barrels a day more than the 2015 level. OPEC produced 30.05 million a day in November, down 390,000 barrels a day from the previous month because of lower production in Libya, according to data from analysts and media organizations referred to in the report as "secondary sources."
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