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Proposals to strengthen the 2015 budget revenues and to stimulate competitive agricultural and industrial products
2/1/2015
After the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives re-considering the political hypothesis of budget revenues are expected to reduce the price to achieve exports of oil from $ 60 a barrel to $ Ely56, and after some other revisions to the draft, the House of Representatives approved on January 29 2015 budget. The budget continues to assume that the average daily oil exports would be 3.3 million barrels. We will not discuss here realistic hypotheses, despite our belief that the premise of the $ 56 a barrel is still far from the reality of the situation in light of the continuing low levels of west Texas oil prices less than $ 50.
This budget was not supposed to shrink the planned deficit, which has remained 25.4 trillion dinars, while total expenditures decreased from about 125 trillion dinars in the draft to the government 119.6 trillion dinars in the law, which was approved by the House of Representatives, a slight reduction compared to the collapse happening to oil prices. What worries us now is to reduce overall spending by about 4.6 percent, only assuming the recovery in oil prices to $ Aly56 a barrel for the whole year 2015 compared to the price of an existing trader for the sale of Iraqi oil ranges between 38 and 40 dollars per barrel will lead to the government facing additional financial crisis at the end of this The public did not hedge since now through study and approve a number of measures to provide financial and other resources than is the internal and external borrowing and financial savings retained from Moisna2014. The possibilities contained in the budget to increase exports more than 3.3 million barrels per day may be achieved in the light of practical ability to export 550 thousand barrels of oil per day through a tube whose term of the Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, which is still producing some of Kirkuk is tied to its limit today. Therefore, our fear is that the ceiling programmed total spending that coupled with the continued deteriorating level or low oil prices refers to the possibility of a few of the worsening of the actual budget deficit at the end of the year to more than the 25.4 trillion dinars planned now, which calls for the hedge. The most likely in our view, is the continuing weakness of prices on the world oil market for a period of not less than one year or two years that OPEC has not reducing production in its Member States, a possibility more correct now in the light of the public statements of the ministers of the Gulf where and the presence of a large surplus in the global production of crude oil
reversed the biggest check of the United States for commercial purposes stock since 80 years at this time of year, it increased by 8.9 million barrels by the end of the week ending January 23, 2015 for a total of 406.7 million barrels, according to the US Energy Management Report for 23kanon last second.
Means hypothesis oil price source of $ 56 that the expected oil revenues in the budget of 2015 will amount to 67, to $ 45 billion, while some information indicates that Iraq has become, in fact sell the oil at between 38 dollars and 40 per barrel in late January 2015 or less because of differences quality and shipping costs. Hence, it is likely to be incumbent on the Council of Representatives and the government's review of the draft budget more effectively than did the Finance Committee so as to compress a lot of unexplained expenses and some of which were at the highest levels. And of course, there is the area of a few of the provision in expenses across the counter strict corruption and corrupt people in the state apparatus, including Alvdaúaon, as there are other possibilities for the state to get a certain revenues by selling a percentage of their lands and properties of the masters of the former regime, as well as adult influential and Hawwaraém after 2003 who acquired a lot of them on these properties cheaply does not approximate market prices. Stories takeover Khairallah Telfah and others on the territory of the people that are still alive, not to mention the real estate and the money that has accumulated from the truncated 5 percent of oil revenues from 1972 and 1973 to include counts outside Iraq in the name of the Baath Party, and under the supervision of Saddam (see Jawad Hashim - Iraqi minister diary with pristine and Saddam: Memories in Iraqi politics 2000 - 1967 Saqi 2003 p. 149 ...) as to what is known about the take-overs illegal to Real Estate State in the Green Zone and the beaches of Kadhimiya and Parks Palestine Street and others over the years things worthy of attention and the Ministry of Finance within as it seeks to supplement the budget revenues are required.
All of these actions will be useful in strengthening the budget resources but it will not be enough to fill the huge deficit, which is expected to be achieved unless paired with these other measures enhance the potential of production in commodity sectors such as industry, agriculture, not to mention the electricity, water and transport services. As we suggested in our article labeled "priority whichever of Iraq: the fittest government department and the development of economic policies or waiting for remunerative prices for oil?" (28 December 2014), there is a need for economic development as it is funding to activate the tariff procedures. We estimated there are intermediate outcome we proposed to customs duties of 20 percent to $ 8 billion, assuming falling commodity import value Ely40 billion dollars in 2015 from nearly $ 59 billion in 2013. We have shown that such action is necessary to reduce the competition of foreign goods for our products, which has become unable to compete, which led to the atrophy of the manufacturing industry and stumbled reverse agricultural growth also aggravate the import and rampant unemployment.
If oil prices continue to source up to the $ 40 a barrel or even dropped to $ Aly35, such that deterioration prices seized basis will reduce government revenue Aly48 0.18 billion dollars for the state of $ 40 and Aly42 0.16 billion in the worst-case scenario of $ 35 a barrel. In the case of the latter two scenarios for the price of oil will be necessary also to go about increasing government revenues in Iraqi dinars through Mayati:
(1) a reduction (limited) to the price of the dinar against the dollar, a move logical and required economically to enhance the impact of the tariff increase in the national commodity production capabilities versus import rival effective for our production and the potential on the one hand and to strengthen the competitiveness our potential when exporting to the outside and from the other side.
(2) impose a tax rate of not less than 5 percent in the auction of the Central Bank foreign currency on all private transfers from the dollar to the dinar went resources for the reconstruction of the devastated areas by Daash after editing. We propose here an exception transfers for medication abroad due to poor health care services in Iraq. It is an expectation that the "reconstruction levy" the outcome of this proposed $ 900 million if we assume that the government will determine the central bank sales of $ 75 million per working day, which some media refers to the adoption.
************************************
There is no doubt that the fear of the effects of reducing the dinar increase in inflation rate is out of the question when formulating such as these proposals, serious Valtavat of hyperinflation in the nineties of the last century, which combined with the deterioration of the exchange rate basis in the parallel market against the dollar, is still alive. For this reason, our proposal is to reduce the exchange rate slightly so as not to have much impact on imports in ornament market prices. This will enable some of the inflationary effects of absorption through the origins of imports to change the direction of the countries that took the currency exchange rates tend to decline against the US dollar, including the euro area, Canada and the Russian Federation countries that will enable the conversion of some government imports at them on the rising imports denominated in US dollars account. It is worth mentioning here that the central bank figures reduce 2013 refers to the fact that the inflation rate of 1.9 percent at the time (Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013 p. 89), a low number so advanced economies standards, clearing JAL to reduce the exchange rate of the dinar between 5 percent and 7 percent this year, the price of without worrying inflationary implications.
The reduction in the rate of exchange at a rate of 5 percent in 2015 from 1166 dinars to the dollar Aly1224 dinars to the dollar large inflationary effects will not happen and will provide to the state budget a minimum of $ 2.45 trillion additional dollars in the case of assuming an oil price of $ 35 a barrel spending and the Ministry of Finance each prospective proceeds of revenue Oil Dinars at the new exchange proposal. As expected Similarly provide an additional $ 2.8 trillion dollars in the case of assuming the price of $ 40 a barrel and 3.9 trillion additional dinars when converting the overall outcome of the budget from oil exports, assuming the price adopted a budget (56) dollars.
The bottom line is, that the current market conditions and the deterioration of higher average oil prices will necessitate a review of state economic policies and Tlobh this review suggests that revolve around Mayati:
Rid them of the consequences of populist policies that inflated the numbers of employees to nearly 4 million employees as stated in a recent statement to the official spokesman, Dr. Saad al-Hadithi. Without a doubt, Iraq is no need for this size of an oversized employment is mostly no real productivity.
- Reducing wasteful expenditure in the state ministries and facilities within the above, will have to give first priority to reduce government expenditures to detect the number of aliens who receive salaried on the rest of the people's rights account.
- A review of the previous government contracts thoroughly and professionally and away from intersections partisan political consensus in order to reduce the unexplained increases in investment and operating expenses as a result of corruption and bribery.
After the completion of such revisions are still required, it is likely for the government and the House of Representatives to agree on some economic Magistrate's landmarks at the macro level (eschatological) in order to achieve a reduction in the real fiscal deficit expected for the budget at the same time stimulate the national economic sectors, notably agriculture and industry to expand Balnteg and operating the product for the unemployed . It is the most necessary measures as mentioned activate the tariff system and raise the average fee Aly20 percent Agayma imports with the need to distinguish here between basic goods and leisure goods imposes low fees on the first high fees on the second.
For the purpose of activating support for private sector industries, the state should be effective measures for the establishment of a modern industrial cities infrastructure necessary for private investment offer there.
Oil prices and the deterioration of a lot less than the $ 56 that assumption adopted the draft budget, Vsenbga state now review the exchange rate policy, but in a gradual and discreet. The reduction in the purchase of the dollar at the central bank from 1166 dinars Aly1224 dinars in 2015 (in the case of falling oil price of $ Aly35) will provide the budget revenues will not be less than 2.45 trillion additional dinars added to nearly 10 trillion, which as a result of activation of the tariff may be realized by twenty percent.
Although the reduction and increase the tariff will have certain effects on the price increase, but the budget will be able to absorb these negative effects through the use of half of customs revenues to support the poor and families affected by the deterioration to situations through the support of nearly 5 trillion dinars to the families of martyrs, widows and poor children in schools, the disabled and the martyrs of Liberation country.
Did not address our estimate of the outcome of the state of the differences devalue proposed which is more than revenues of the country's oil source state will receive cash assistance as would borrow from abroad necessarily Not to mention the amount of the dollar has decreased a lot in the Development Fund for Iraq expect asylum budget to be used in 2015.
The customs revenues and the proposed tariff level as the outcome of the reduction border exchange rate and tax the proposed reconstruction will stimulate all of the increase in production at the expense of imports. It will be to increase the production of these positive effects in increasing the incomes of employees in industry and agriculture, which will create economic growth cycle in the non-oil sectors through the effect of doubling the income and investment.
And in any case, would be a gradual transition, which hopefully can bring these proposed measures of employment dominance in the state and the demand for labor and employment in the direction of increased demand for productive work in the agriculture and the private industrial sector a qualitatively new approach to reduce dependence on the oil sector and returns the path which returns that are no longer valve Economic Security and Stability was also expected politicians boasted the greatest days for his ignorance economy and Sciences and ended its active role in failure.
And regrettably, I have kept the Trinity ignorance and waste and corruption (in addition to interests that sponsored the open import without controls) our economy Rieia adult retardation. This has been a failure hits Atnabh despite 539 flow, $ 8 billion on the country's oil exports alone between 2003 and 2013 was 90.5 percent of them in light of Mr. Maliki's administration did not benefit most Iraqis of this great flow and now oil prices collapsed and the State necessarily Looking for financial exits our crisis.
These proposals, then, is in the crucible of the crisis and find necessary solutions to alleviate the current financial crisis and the activation of lost development policies so far, in addition to being achievable and necessary in light of the deterioration of the country returns.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
2/1/2015
After the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives re-considering the political hypothesis of budget revenues are expected to reduce the price to achieve exports of oil from $ 60 a barrel to $ Ely56, and after some other revisions to the draft, the House of Representatives approved on January 29 2015 budget. The budget continues to assume that the average daily oil exports would be 3.3 million barrels. We will not discuss here realistic hypotheses, despite our belief that the premise of the $ 56 a barrel is still far from the reality of the situation in light of the continuing low levels of west Texas oil prices less than $ 50.
This budget was not supposed to shrink the planned deficit, which has remained 25.4 trillion dinars, while total expenditures decreased from about 125 trillion dinars in the draft to the government 119.6 trillion dinars in the law, which was approved by the House of Representatives, a slight reduction compared to the collapse happening to oil prices. What worries us now is to reduce overall spending by about 4.6 percent, only assuming the recovery in oil prices to $ Aly56 a barrel for the whole year 2015 compared to the price of an existing trader for the sale of Iraqi oil ranges between 38 and 40 dollars per barrel will lead to the government facing additional financial crisis at the end of this The public did not hedge since now through study and approve a number of measures to provide financial and other resources than is the internal and external borrowing and financial savings retained from Moisna2014. The possibilities contained in the budget to increase exports more than 3.3 million barrels per day may be achieved in the light of practical ability to export 550 thousand barrels of oil per day through a tube whose term of the Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, which is still producing some of Kirkuk is tied to its limit today. Therefore, our fear is that the ceiling programmed total spending that coupled with the continued deteriorating level or low oil prices refers to the possibility of a few of the worsening of the actual budget deficit at the end of the year to more than the 25.4 trillion dinars planned now, which calls for the hedge. The most likely in our view, is the continuing weakness of prices on the world oil market for a period of not less than one year or two years that OPEC has not reducing production in its Member States, a possibility more correct now in the light of the public statements of the ministers of the Gulf where and the presence of a large surplus in the global production of crude oil
reversed the biggest check of the United States for commercial purposes stock since 80 years at this time of year, it increased by 8.9 million barrels by the end of the week ending January 23, 2015 for a total of 406.7 million barrels, according to the US Energy Management Report for 23kanon last second.
Means hypothesis oil price source of $ 56 that the expected oil revenues in the budget of 2015 will amount to 67, to $ 45 billion, while some information indicates that Iraq has become, in fact sell the oil at between 38 dollars and 40 per barrel in late January 2015 or less because of differences quality and shipping costs. Hence, it is likely to be incumbent on the Council of Representatives and the government's review of the draft budget more effectively than did the Finance Committee so as to compress a lot of unexplained expenses and some of which were at the highest levels. And of course, there is the area of a few of the provision in expenses across the counter strict corruption and corrupt people in the state apparatus, including Alvdaúaon, as there are other possibilities for the state to get a certain revenues by selling a percentage of their lands and properties of the masters of the former regime, as well as adult influential and Hawwaraém after 2003 who acquired a lot of them on these properties cheaply does not approximate market prices. Stories takeover Khairallah Telfah and others on the territory of the people that are still alive, not to mention the real estate and the money that has accumulated from the truncated 5 percent of oil revenues from 1972 and 1973 to include counts outside Iraq in the name of the Baath Party, and under the supervision of Saddam (see Jawad Hashim - Iraqi minister diary with pristine and Saddam: Memories in Iraqi politics 2000 - 1967 Saqi 2003 p. 149 ...) as to what is known about the take-overs illegal to Real Estate State in the Green Zone and the beaches of Kadhimiya and Parks Palestine Street and others over the years things worthy of attention and the Ministry of Finance within as it seeks to supplement the budget revenues are required.
All of these actions will be useful in strengthening the budget resources but it will not be enough to fill the huge deficit, which is expected to be achieved unless paired with these other measures enhance the potential of production in commodity sectors such as industry, agriculture, not to mention the electricity, water and transport services. As we suggested in our article labeled "priority whichever of Iraq: the fittest government department and the development of economic policies or waiting for remunerative prices for oil?" (28 December 2014), there is a need for economic development as it is funding to activate the tariff procedures. We estimated there are intermediate outcome we proposed to customs duties of 20 percent to $ 8 billion, assuming falling commodity import value Ely40 billion dollars in 2015 from nearly $ 59 billion in 2013. We have shown that such action is necessary to reduce the competition of foreign goods for our products, which has become unable to compete, which led to the atrophy of the manufacturing industry and stumbled reverse agricultural growth also aggravate the import and rampant unemployment.
If oil prices continue to source up to the $ 40 a barrel or even dropped to $ Aly35, such that deterioration prices seized basis will reduce government revenue Aly48 0.18 billion dollars for the state of $ 40 and Aly42 0.16 billion in the worst-case scenario of $ 35 a barrel. In the case of the latter two scenarios for the price of oil will be necessary also to go about increasing government revenues in Iraqi dinars through Mayati:
(1) a reduction (limited) to the price of the dinar against the dollar, a move logical and required economically to enhance the impact of the tariff increase in the national commodity production capabilities versus import rival effective for our production and the potential on the one hand and to strengthen the competitiveness our potential when exporting to the outside and from the other side.
(2) impose a tax rate of not less than 5 percent in the auction of the Central Bank foreign currency on all private transfers from the dollar to the dinar went resources for the reconstruction of the devastated areas by Daash after editing. We propose here an exception transfers for medication abroad due to poor health care services in Iraq. It is an expectation that the "reconstruction levy" the outcome of this proposed $ 900 million if we assume that the government will determine the central bank sales of $ 75 million per working day, which some media refers to the adoption.
************************************
There is no doubt that the fear of the effects of reducing the dinar increase in inflation rate is out of the question when formulating such as these proposals, serious Valtavat of hyperinflation in the nineties of the last century, which combined with the deterioration of the exchange rate basis in the parallel market against the dollar, is still alive. For this reason, our proposal is to reduce the exchange rate slightly so as not to have much impact on imports in ornament market prices. This will enable some of the inflationary effects of absorption through the origins of imports to change the direction of the countries that took the currency exchange rates tend to decline against the US dollar, including the euro area, Canada and the Russian Federation countries that will enable the conversion of some government imports at them on the rising imports denominated in US dollars account. It is worth mentioning here that the central bank figures reduce 2013 refers to the fact that the inflation rate of 1.9 percent at the time (Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013 p. 89), a low number so advanced economies standards, clearing JAL to reduce the exchange rate of the dinar between 5 percent and 7 percent this year, the price of without worrying inflationary implications.
The reduction in the rate of exchange at a rate of 5 percent in 2015 from 1166 dinars to the dollar Aly1224 dinars to the dollar large inflationary effects will not happen and will provide to the state budget a minimum of $ 2.45 trillion additional dollars in the case of assuming an oil price of $ 35 a barrel spending and the Ministry of Finance each prospective proceeds of revenue Oil Dinars at the new exchange proposal. As expected Similarly provide an additional $ 2.8 trillion dollars in the case of assuming the price of $ 40 a barrel and 3.9 trillion additional dinars when converting the overall outcome of the budget from oil exports, assuming the price adopted a budget (56) dollars.
The bottom line is, that the current market conditions and the deterioration of higher average oil prices will necessitate a review of state economic policies and Tlobh this review suggests that revolve around Mayati:
Rid them of the consequences of populist policies that inflated the numbers of employees to nearly 4 million employees as stated in a recent statement to the official spokesman, Dr. Saad al-Hadithi. Without a doubt, Iraq is no need for this size of an oversized employment is mostly no real productivity.
- Reducing wasteful expenditure in the state ministries and facilities within the above, will have to give first priority to reduce government expenditures to detect the number of aliens who receive salaried on the rest of the people's rights account.
- A review of the previous government contracts thoroughly and professionally and away from intersections partisan political consensus in order to reduce the unexplained increases in investment and operating expenses as a result of corruption and bribery.
After the completion of such revisions are still required, it is likely for the government and the House of Representatives to agree on some economic Magistrate's landmarks at the macro level (eschatological) in order to achieve a reduction in the real fiscal deficit expected for the budget at the same time stimulate the national economic sectors, notably agriculture and industry to expand Balnteg and operating the product for the unemployed . It is the most necessary measures as mentioned activate the tariff system and raise the average fee Aly20 percent Agayma imports with the need to distinguish here between basic goods and leisure goods imposes low fees on the first high fees on the second.
For the purpose of activating support for private sector industries, the state should be effective measures for the establishment of a modern industrial cities infrastructure necessary for private investment offer there.
Oil prices and the deterioration of a lot less than the $ 56 that assumption adopted the draft budget, Vsenbga state now review the exchange rate policy, but in a gradual and discreet. The reduction in the purchase of the dollar at the central bank from 1166 dinars Aly1224 dinars in 2015 (in the case of falling oil price of $ Aly35) will provide the budget revenues will not be less than 2.45 trillion additional dinars added to nearly 10 trillion, which as a result of activation of the tariff may be realized by twenty percent.
Although the reduction and increase the tariff will have certain effects on the price increase, but the budget will be able to absorb these negative effects through the use of half of customs revenues to support the poor and families affected by the deterioration to situations through the support of nearly 5 trillion dinars to the families of martyrs, widows and poor children in schools, the disabled and the martyrs of Liberation country.
Did not address our estimate of the outcome of the state of the differences devalue proposed which is more than revenues of the country's oil source state will receive cash assistance as would borrow from abroad necessarily Not to mention the amount of the dollar has decreased a lot in the Development Fund for Iraq expect asylum budget to be used in 2015.
The customs revenues and the proposed tariff level as the outcome of the reduction border exchange rate and tax the proposed reconstruction will stimulate all of the increase in production at the expense of imports. It will be to increase the production of these positive effects in increasing the incomes of employees in industry and agriculture, which will create economic growth cycle in the non-oil sectors through the effect of doubling the income and investment.
And in any case, would be a gradual transition, which hopefully can bring these proposed measures of employment dominance in the state and the demand for labor and employment in the direction of increased demand for productive work in the agriculture and the private industrial sector a qualitatively new approach to reduce dependence on the oil sector and returns the path which returns that are no longer valve Economic Security and Stability was also expected politicians boasted the greatest days for his ignorance economy and Sciences and ended its active role in failure.
And regrettably, I have kept the Trinity ignorance and waste and corruption (in addition to interests that sponsored the open import without controls) our economy Rieia adult retardation. This has been a failure hits Atnabh despite 539 flow, $ 8 billion on the country's oil exports alone between 2003 and 2013 was 90.5 percent of them in light of Mr. Maliki's administration did not benefit most Iraqis of this great flow and now oil prices collapsed and the State necessarily Looking for financial exits our crisis.
These proposals, then, is in the crucible of the crisis and find necessary solutions to alleviate the current financial crisis and the activation of lost development policies so far, in addition to being achievable and necessary in light of the deterioration of the country returns.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
