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Economists estimate the price of a barrel to 56 dollars "unrealistic" and the middle class will bear the tax
2/10/2015
BAGHDAD / Ghazanfar Laibi - Amer Mohi Experts in economic affairs confirmed that the general budget for 2015 included some of the economic reforms, while noting that the budget reduced the waste of public money, confirmed that rely on the tax will raise prices in the domestic market, arguing to hurt the poor and middle class kids and staff because of taxes and fees. And surveyed the "long", the views of specialists in economic affairs on the general budget for 2015 and the highlights of the clauses. 2015 budget "transparent" to stop 12/1
The expert said economist and writer Thamer Alheimus "long", that "the budget announcement and approval, is the most prominent strengths, especially with the delayed approval in previous years," noting that "stop the previous exchange method (12.1), is an important issue in this budget, and make the budget clear and transparent so that there is no secret pockets. " He adds Alheimus saying that "the decline in imports due to lower oil prices is one of the weaknesses of the budget, which led to the investment budget stop, and the large sums of money lost from investment allocations feedback to the Treasury at the time and the estimated B95 billion came as a result of random exchange."
It is believed that "the cadre of advisers in the prime minister changed by the presence of the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, for example," he said, adding that "a lot raised the issue of special grades to reduce the salaries, in addition to reducing the protections and setting priorities."
Does not support the agricultural and industrial sectors
For his part, Professor of Economics at the University of Babylon rich Asadi in an interview for the "long" see, that "the current budget reduced the waste of public money, in contrast to previous years, in addition to the approval of an appropriate time and this is a positive thing," adding that "the general budget, and despite the difficult conditions of the country, but it has seen a functional degrees, especially in the Ministries of Education and Higher Education and Health, as well as defense and interior. "
He said al-Asadi saying that "the amounts and numbers listed in the paper the budget did not support the productive sectors (such as agriculture and industry) to reduce dependence on oil, which constitutes 95% of the imports," noting that "the budget 2015 do not carry visions of the future and clear objectives."
Budget did not address the problem of "aliens"
He Asadi that "the budget 2015 did not address the issue of aliens in state departments and raised by the Prime Minister and other institutions, has not been exploited grades to fill the shortfall in the army and the defense and interior ministries, as well as the popular crowd," noting that "the budget underwent political influence more than economic. "
Budget marginalized poor
And increased al-Asadi said "the affected categories of the budget are the poor and the middle class kids and the staff, especially after raising the tax rate on services (such as electricity, water and telecommunications), while the higher authorities were not affected by the executive and parliament, the judiciary and the powerful forces of the budget and the lack of resources."
Implementation of investment plans will be on time
For his part, economist Abdul Rahim al-Tai sees in an interview for the "long", that "the budget in 2015 was able to reduce unnecessary spending in all state facilities," noting that "the formation of Emaar will reduce the wastage of money and away from the financial and administrative corruption, in addition to get rid of red tape in the implementation of the investment plan "."
He said al-Tai, saying that "the adoption of the budget in the first month of the year will allow for the implementation of the investment plan in a timely manner," pointing out that "the political consensus on the adoption of the budget will create a state of stability in the Iraqi street, at the provincial and regional level, especially with the presence of harmony and clear for the implementation of paragraphs agreement on the export of oil from the region, believed that promise. "
The expert believes "the government's inability to reach the planned export ceiling, and is estimated at 3.3 million barrels a day, especially as concerns the unstable situation in the province of Kirkuk."
$ 56 for a barrel of oil is "unrealistic"
He described al-Tai "estimate the price per barrel to $ 56 b (unrealistic) because world oil prices continues to drop, the more the price per barrel decreased production increased to compensate for falling prices, losses, and then increase the offer, and a nutshell, the greater the offer price has fallen," surprising "not know where to reach a barrel in light of this automatic mechanical prices with supply and demand. "
He also added that "the estimate barrel this price ($ 56) will increase the deficit, if continued price of a barrel without any drop another, it means adding an estimated four billion a month, and 48 billion per year of new losses will be added to the previous deficit is estimated to 23 trillion, will be the real deficit limits 90 trillion dinars by one hundred percent of the total budget, and this serves as an economic disaster did not notice them members of the ministerial and parliamentary budget. " The expert considers that "the government has followed multiple mechanisms, some of which were right and others are unfortunate, for example, to borrow from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank was correct, and that the internal borrowing through bonds and remittances stockpiling possible help to alleviate the deficit, but the savings National imposed on low-income groups is the right one because it will leave a negative impact on the employee, and therefore this will be reflected on the tender. "
Taxes borne by the citizen
Tai explained that "the imposition of sales taxes borne by the citizens in all cases, and this has serious implications for the general level of prices rising, and who will pay the price citizen, and this will be a victim of non-economic policies practiced by officials in previous years."
It is noted that "activate the tariff, taxes and fees and fines have a significant role in bridging the budget deficit as the law would bring significant revenues to the state, as well as being the principle of justice will bring in income distribution."
In turn, says economist Imad Abdul Latif "long", that "the only feature in the budget is a decline in government spending, which has escalated at an unprecedented pace since 2003 and up to 2014 growth rates," adding that "the catastrophic decline in economic indicators may help to think of ways and working methods of economic management of different file, and a catalyst to accelerate the treatment of chronic structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy. "
There is no law in force to monitor the allocations
And Abdul-Latif said "the budget in 2015 did not adopt a conservative and realistic price for crude oil in the state budget with the financial and administrative applicable law No. 95 of 2004 stipulates that, in addition to lending to the government's 6 trillion dinars to cover the budget deficit, with the Central Bank Law in force No. 56 of 2004 does not allow it, "pointing out that" it is wrong to monitor the allocations in the budget, without the presence of applicable law, regulating the disbursement of the purpose for which it was allocated for it. " He adds that "the budget included a glitch last calculates the average price of a barrel to estimate the income resulting from the proceeds of the export of crude oil in the general budget to $ 56 a barrel, while the average price in the global oil market is $ 46 a barrel, and the adoption of an average oil exports amounting to 3.3 million barrels per day , including 550 000 barrels of Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region fields, in addition to the estimate is conservative oil price, the volume of exports of 3.3 million barrels per day may not be achieved, not because of the inability to export this amount, but the inability to market based on the size of the global demand for oil, there is no guarantee for us to sell this quantity in we were able to produce them at all. " He pointed out that "borrowing from the legal reserve of commercial banks with the central bank action is unprecedented not be considered negative repercussions adequately and may open the door to increased borrowing of precautions, especially if they are not selling a barrel of oil at $ 56 a barrel or more, and if not The sale of 3.3 barrels per day.
Proposals offering bonds of public debt and sell them to those wishing to voluntary savings
According to Abdel-Latif said "government austerity program is not clear, nor is framed mechanisms and clear application except for paragraphs and items that are of real value to them, where they were lowering the operating budget allocations, and the deduction of allowances higher grades of staff uncertain, since it is better to put up bonds public debt and sold to citizens wishing saving voluntary, not compulsory, and specific deadlines, and the price of a specific interest for each order. "
He adds, "can, of course, the imposition of the sale of these bonds at the higher grades salary allocations, where the purchase of bonds which not deduct the amount of such provisions such as compulsory savings employee when not know you are back, and what is the nature of the cost and the return of it, and when to stop withholding and how you will pay the amount saved from his salary against his will, "stressing that" the disadvantages of the budget, the allocation of functional degrees of institutions and government ministries suffer from sagging, and the lack of efficiency, and disguised unemployment in time packed with nearly 4 million employees in these institutions and ministries with little or no productivity. "
He points out, "there are a lot of votes sphincter to the presence of large allocations compared to the current financial situation) for the investment budget, although the reduction in the budget allocations compared to the operational budget would not entail stasis effects, because the allocations will not pour in aggregate demand to double the front and rear of investment projects links course, In addition to the large volume of waste and corruption associated with it, where it was possible to completely block these customizations for this year, and the resumption of work and hypocrisy on important projects and strategy, which has a direct impact on the economy. "
Budget punished decision makers
In the same context, the economist said Maytham Laibi "long", "The Search for the strengths of the budget is like searching for a needle in a haystack," he said. "It is recommended in the budget of 2015 was approved early, they can also represent a punishment for decision-makers from the politicians, they might Atedoa not to exaggerate the estimates of expenditure in the future. "
He Laibi saying that "weakness budget they are very big points, Vemoazna items that do not serve the programming and planning objectives, and the government raised the white flag, and did not contribute to the amendments and left the Finance Committee in Parliament, and that urgency is evident in spending cuts and came on the way cut the excess fabric, at the time did not dealing with aspects of the actual deficiencies. "
Taxes will raise prices
He noted that the "shock drop in oil prices was a surprise, everyone No his magic solutions they only wish the return of higher prices, and that some taxes will be reflected in higher prices, either reduce expenses, it can be reflected in the economic recession and unemployment above unemployment, it is also possible to enhance the Recession resolution central bank sales of dollar reduction. " He continued by saying "when the adoption of the budget has to use some of the experts, but the solutions that have been put forward that can not be adopted in the short term, these experts have long warned the government and the political impasse unilateral and dangerous to rely on an external source in terms of the required quantities and prices, and that most of the solutions must take medium and long time frame. "
Evaporation of the amounts retained in the previous budget
He stressed that "the budget deficit can not exaggerate it, because it requires borrowing in all cases, which is a financial burden on the future is to refund the principal amount plus interest, especially that Iraq is still suffering from the effects of the debt, stressing that" they are maligned the deficit is the amounts retained from the previous budget evaporation what puts a big question marks on the previous governments, particularly since those amounts did not know and did not prove its fate within the final accounts, and spent part of the last year of the government and the accompanying spending on elections. "
The Iraqi Council of Representatives on Thursday approved, (January 29, 2015), the financial budget for the current year 2015, B119 trillion Iraqi dinars and a deficit of 25 trillion dinars, with House Speaker Salim al-Jubouri confirmed it the first time that the adoption of the budget is during the month the first of the year, and described as "achievement"
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
2/10/2015
BAGHDAD / Ghazanfar Laibi - Amer Mohi Experts in economic affairs confirmed that the general budget for 2015 included some of the economic reforms, while noting that the budget reduced the waste of public money, confirmed that rely on the tax will raise prices in the domestic market, arguing to hurt the poor and middle class kids and staff because of taxes and fees. And surveyed the "long", the views of specialists in economic affairs on the general budget for 2015 and the highlights of the clauses. 2015 budget "transparent" to stop 12/1
The expert said economist and writer Thamer Alheimus "long", that "the budget announcement and approval, is the most prominent strengths, especially with the delayed approval in previous years," noting that "stop the previous exchange method (12.1), is an important issue in this budget, and make the budget clear and transparent so that there is no secret pockets. " He adds Alheimus saying that "the decline in imports due to lower oil prices is one of the weaknesses of the budget, which led to the investment budget stop, and the large sums of money lost from investment allocations feedback to the Treasury at the time and the estimated B95 billion came as a result of random exchange."
It is believed that "the cadre of advisers in the prime minister changed by the presence of the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, for example," he said, adding that "a lot raised the issue of special grades to reduce the salaries, in addition to reducing the protections and setting priorities."
Does not support the agricultural and industrial sectors
For his part, Professor of Economics at the University of Babylon rich Asadi in an interview for the "long" see, that "the current budget reduced the waste of public money, in contrast to previous years, in addition to the approval of an appropriate time and this is a positive thing," adding that "the general budget, and despite the difficult conditions of the country, but it has seen a functional degrees, especially in the Ministries of Education and Higher Education and Health, as well as defense and interior. "
He said al-Asadi saying that "the amounts and numbers listed in the paper the budget did not support the productive sectors (such as agriculture and industry) to reduce dependence on oil, which constitutes 95% of the imports," noting that "the budget 2015 do not carry visions of the future and clear objectives."
Budget did not address the problem of "aliens"
He Asadi that "the budget 2015 did not address the issue of aliens in state departments and raised by the Prime Minister and other institutions, has not been exploited grades to fill the shortfall in the army and the defense and interior ministries, as well as the popular crowd," noting that "the budget underwent political influence more than economic. "
Budget marginalized poor
And increased al-Asadi said "the affected categories of the budget are the poor and the middle class kids and the staff, especially after raising the tax rate on services (such as electricity, water and telecommunications), while the higher authorities were not affected by the executive and parliament, the judiciary and the powerful forces of the budget and the lack of resources."
Implementation of investment plans will be on time
For his part, economist Abdul Rahim al-Tai sees in an interview for the "long", that "the budget in 2015 was able to reduce unnecessary spending in all state facilities," noting that "the formation of Emaar will reduce the wastage of money and away from the financial and administrative corruption, in addition to get rid of red tape in the implementation of the investment plan "."
He said al-Tai, saying that "the adoption of the budget in the first month of the year will allow for the implementation of the investment plan in a timely manner," pointing out that "the political consensus on the adoption of the budget will create a state of stability in the Iraqi street, at the provincial and regional level, especially with the presence of harmony and clear for the implementation of paragraphs agreement on the export of oil from the region, believed that promise. "
The expert believes "the government's inability to reach the planned export ceiling, and is estimated at 3.3 million barrels a day, especially as concerns the unstable situation in the province of Kirkuk."
$ 56 for a barrel of oil is "unrealistic"
He described al-Tai "estimate the price per barrel to $ 56 b (unrealistic) because world oil prices continues to drop, the more the price per barrel decreased production increased to compensate for falling prices, losses, and then increase the offer, and a nutshell, the greater the offer price has fallen," surprising "not know where to reach a barrel in light of this automatic mechanical prices with supply and demand. "
He also added that "the estimate barrel this price ($ 56) will increase the deficit, if continued price of a barrel without any drop another, it means adding an estimated four billion a month, and 48 billion per year of new losses will be added to the previous deficit is estimated to 23 trillion, will be the real deficit limits 90 trillion dinars by one hundred percent of the total budget, and this serves as an economic disaster did not notice them members of the ministerial and parliamentary budget. " The expert considers that "the government has followed multiple mechanisms, some of which were right and others are unfortunate, for example, to borrow from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank was correct, and that the internal borrowing through bonds and remittances stockpiling possible help to alleviate the deficit, but the savings National imposed on low-income groups is the right one because it will leave a negative impact on the employee, and therefore this will be reflected on the tender. "
Taxes borne by the citizen
Tai explained that "the imposition of sales taxes borne by the citizens in all cases, and this has serious implications for the general level of prices rising, and who will pay the price citizen, and this will be a victim of non-economic policies practiced by officials in previous years."
It is noted that "activate the tariff, taxes and fees and fines have a significant role in bridging the budget deficit as the law would bring significant revenues to the state, as well as being the principle of justice will bring in income distribution."
In turn, says economist Imad Abdul Latif "long", that "the only feature in the budget is a decline in government spending, which has escalated at an unprecedented pace since 2003 and up to 2014 growth rates," adding that "the catastrophic decline in economic indicators may help to think of ways and working methods of economic management of different file, and a catalyst to accelerate the treatment of chronic structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy. "
There is no law in force to monitor the allocations
And Abdul-Latif said "the budget in 2015 did not adopt a conservative and realistic price for crude oil in the state budget with the financial and administrative applicable law No. 95 of 2004 stipulates that, in addition to lending to the government's 6 trillion dinars to cover the budget deficit, with the Central Bank Law in force No. 56 of 2004 does not allow it, "pointing out that" it is wrong to monitor the allocations in the budget, without the presence of applicable law, regulating the disbursement of the purpose for which it was allocated for it. " He adds that "the budget included a glitch last calculates the average price of a barrel to estimate the income resulting from the proceeds of the export of crude oil in the general budget to $ 56 a barrel, while the average price in the global oil market is $ 46 a barrel, and the adoption of an average oil exports amounting to 3.3 million barrels per day , including 550 000 barrels of Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region fields, in addition to the estimate is conservative oil price, the volume of exports of 3.3 million barrels per day may not be achieved, not because of the inability to export this amount, but the inability to market based on the size of the global demand for oil, there is no guarantee for us to sell this quantity in we were able to produce them at all. " He pointed out that "borrowing from the legal reserve of commercial banks with the central bank action is unprecedented not be considered negative repercussions adequately and may open the door to increased borrowing of precautions, especially if they are not selling a barrel of oil at $ 56 a barrel or more, and if not The sale of 3.3 barrels per day.
Proposals offering bonds of public debt and sell them to those wishing to voluntary savings
According to Abdel-Latif said "government austerity program is not clear, nor is framed mechanisms and clear application except for paragraphs and items that are of real value to them, where they were lowering the operating budget allocations, and the deduction of allowances higher grades of staff uncertain, since it is better to put up bonds public debt and sold to citizens wishing saving voluntary, not compulsory, and specific deadlines, and the price of a specific interest for each order. "
He adds, "can, of course, the imposition of the sale of these bonds at the higher grades salary allocations, where the purchase of bonds which not deduct the amount of such provisions such as compulsory savings employee when not know you are back, and what is the nature of the cost and the return of it, and when to stop withholding and how you will pay the amount saved from his salary against his will, "stressing that" the disadvantages of the budget, the allocation of functional degrees of institutions and government ministries suffer from sagging, and the lack of efficiency, and disguised unemployment in time packed with nearly 4 million employees in these institutions and ministries with little or no productivity. "
He points out, "there are a lot of votes sphincter to the presence of large allocations compared to the current financial situation) for the investment budget, although the reduction in the budget allocations compared to the operational budget would not entail stasis effects, because the allocations will not pour in aggregate demand to double the front and rear of investment projects links course, In addition to the large volume of waste and corruption associated with it, where it was possible to completely block these customizations for this year, and the resumption of work and hypocrisy on important projects and strategy, which has a direct impact on the economy. "
Budget punished decision makers
In the same context, the economist said Maytham Laibi "long", "The Search for the strengths of the budget is like searching for a needle in a haystack," he said. "It is recommended in the budget of 2015 was approved early, they can also represent a punishment for decision-makers from the politicians, they might Atedoa not to exaggerate the estimates of expenditure in the future. "
He Laibi saying that "weakness budget they are very big points, Vemoazna items that do not serve the programming and planning objectives, and the government raised the white flag, and did not contribute to the amendments and left the Finance Committee in Parliament, and that urgency is evident in spending cuts and came on the way cut the excess fabric, at the time did not dealing with aspects of the actual deficiencies. "
Taxes will raise prices
He noted that the "shock drop in oil prices was a surprise, everyone No his magic solutions they only wish the return of higher prices, and that some taxes will be reflected in higher prices, either reduce expenses, it can be reflected in the economic recession and unemployment above unemployment, it is also possible to enhance the Recession resolution central bank sales of dollar reduction. " He continued by saying "when the adoption of the budget has to use some of the experts, but the solutions that have been put forward that can not be adopted in the short term, these experts have long warned the government and the political impasse unilateral and dangerous to rely on an external source in terms of the required quantities and prices, and that most of the solutions must take medium and long time frame. "
Evaporation of the amounts retained in the previous budget
He stressed that "the budget deficit can not exaggerate it, because it requires borrowing in all cases, which is a financial burden on the future is to refund the principal amount plus interest, especially that Iraq is still suffering from the effects of the debt, stressing that" they are maligned the deficit is the amounts retained from the previous budget evaporation what puts a big question marks on the previous governments, particularly since those amounts did not know and did not prove its fate within the final accounts, and spent part of the last year of the government and the accompanying spending on elections. "
The Iraqi Council of Representatives on Thursday approved, (January 29, 2015), the financial budget for the current year 2015, B119 trillion Iraqi dinars and a deficit of 25 trillion dinars, with House Speaker Salim al-Jubouri confirmed it the first time that the adoption of the budget is during the month the first of the year, and described as "achievement"
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