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Allawi reveals thefts Central Bank of Iraq and the process of sabotaging the Iraqi economy during the previous years
Thursday July 30, 2015
(Proposed solutions to Dr. Haidar al-Abadi out of the economic crisis suffocating)
Iraq is not the most countries only corrupt in the world, it is the state's number one in corruption in the world in terms of the amounts stolen from the citizen for the benefit of spoilers, Vemoazinh Iraq, which amounted to about 140 billion dollars, we can say with confidence that a large proportion of this budget go thefts in the pockets of corrupt politicians who are primarily and their passengers from walking down the spoilers of the general public, and can not be compared to this budget Somalia budget, which is the first country in corruption, while not amounting to five billion dollars a year budget.
One of the distinctive ways corruption is resulting from the currency conversion of the Iraqi dinar to the dollar and this corruption of the core functions of the Central Bank of Iraq.
The Central Bank of Iraq sells a day more than 200 million US dollars and takes contrast Iraqi dinars at a conversion price (one dollar = 1166 dinars) and added to this price commission of the Central Bank, which amount to 24 dinars for each dollar which becomes the final conversion rate (Dollar per = 1190 dinars), but for the sale of Iraqi dinar in the market (parallel price) was Mzbzba price in the recent period and amounted to sharply higher (one dollar = 1370 dinars) and the Near sharply (one dollar = 1220 dinars) during the previous period, nor of materials imported food and goods by traders who remit the amounts officially to buy real goods half that amount, or that the amounts purchased from the dollar by false lists of more than 100 million dollars a day, and if we took holidays (Friday and Saturday) and holidays sporadic and other that do not exceed ten days a whole month, we find that the central bank sells during the twenty days in the month, more than two billion dollars to speculators from the corrupt politicians and their followers layer per month, even if we assume that they are selling the dollar at a rate of (dollar per = 1250 dinars) in the market, That is, they are making a profit by 5 cents for every dollar, that is, they are making a profit per month up to a hundred million dollars, and reflected this difference on the increase in the prices of food and other goods purchased by traders who do not have (and Asitat) with the Central Bank where they buy Dollar parallel price any market price of any amount (one dollar = 1250 dinars) reflected this difference is not an increase in prices only increase in the amounts withdrawn from the market and from the general budget of the country is reflected shortages across the board, Kolmbalg allocated to the reconstruction and the provision of services of electricity, water and other well the shortfall against the displaced families and fighters of the army, police, and other popular crowd. The total amount of the shortfall of more than one billion and two hundred million dollars a year, and a simple calculation we discover that every Iraqi family paid a sum between the (250 to 350 dollars) per year of the daily power to corrupt politicians and their followers.
The descent value of the currency is a normal in a lot of countries in the region, and the descent of the currency impact in the first place a negative impact on the increase in the prices of imported goods and materials, but in the long term provides a ground to achieve the renaissance of industrial, agricultural and even general renaissance for all sectors of productivity if taken the right economic policies, This has been achieved in many countries such as Turkey and Iran, the region, where the currency going down so dramatically in these two countries during the past three decades, but the industrial renaissance in these two countries was too great not only because of the currency decline, but due to make informed economic policies as well as the agricultural and tourism in the two countries renaissance, while in Iraq, the descent of the currency was primarily for the domain of a group of politicians to get rich open on the suffering of the people account so there was two prices for the currency big difference with the adoption of counterfeit menus as it turns out this is to everyone through the media, I have This fact is revealed to the government which was headed by al-Maliki, and instead of finding solutions that corruption stops taken the solution that deepen corruption and makes this potential to benefit non-legitimate under Maliki's control through the imposition of the appointment of Mr. Ali Keywords governor of the Central Bank, a center must be filled by someone efficiently with extensive experience and long in the financial and banking sector and be independent is calculated on the political side, unfortunately Mr. Ali Keywords not entitled to these specifications, this does not mean I accuse Mr. Ali Keywords or al-Maliki of corruption in this area, but such an appointment raises the range of possibilities and questions, and I leave for the reader to reach logical conclusions and possibilities that can respond to the mind from the insistence of Mr. al-Maliki to impose on the Keywords to be the central bank governor with his lack of the required qualifications.
Sabotage the Iraqi economy process
The biggest sabotage the Iraqi economy process occurred during the previous years was due to the lack of a clearly defined economic policy, where the decisions are arbitrary without planning or study and what it could have on those decisions of the subversive effects of the Iraqi economy.
For example, we find that the value of the Iraqi dinar was nearly three thousand Iraqi dinars before 2003 have been raising the value of the Iraqi dinar to one thousand five hundred dinars to the dollar and remained that is adopted for subsequent years the price.
But without study and familiar consequences decision was made arbitrarily during the first ministry period for the owners raised the value of the Iraqi dinar than one thousand and five hundred dinars to the dollar to less than a thousand and two hundred dinars to the dollar, that this decision to lift the value of the Iraqi dinar up to thirty percent resulted in the destruction of the Iraqi industry at the sector level the public and the private sector, as a result of this decision to increase the cost of goods produced in Iraq up to thirty percent, making them uncompetitive and similar imported from outside the borders of goods, stopped on the impact of government laboratories as well as private sector plants because of the inability to market Iraqi products in the Iraqi market, As a result of this sitting this factory workers in their homes and pay monthly salaries to them without any productivity, Iraqi worker productivity has declined in many industrial sectors to zero, and at a time when Iraq is one of the more advanced countries in the Middle East in industrial production, we find that a lot of industries have stopped and became the laboratory after a period of time is not valid due to suspension of the machines for production for several years, it was the previous period an ideal time to develop industries is unrivaled because of the increased financial resources and lift the siege on the country to develop factories to the production in the developed countries level as well as the establishment of new plants cover other industrial sectors.
The rise in the conduct of the Iraqi dinar rate by thirty percent led to an increase the cost of agricultural production by asymptotic to thirty percent, thus becoming the agricultural products imported from neighboring countries cheaper than those planted inside Iraq, and the impact I told Iraqi farm productivity, and turned a lot of agricultural land to neglected land , and the government has to patch the situation by buying some of the Iraqi agricultural products at a price more than the price of imported, and has a lot of Iraqi farmers to buy a lot of these products from outside the country and sold to the government at a higher price, has helped to this rampant corruption on a massive level in state institutions, have This led to a lot of waste of state funds as well as losses starting a result of rampant corruption on a large scale.
The high rate of the dinar has some of the effects of positive and very cheap imported goods, and achieve Iraqi traveler from surplus when traveling outside of Iraq, as well as improve the reputation of the country's economic to pay investors from outside the country to invest in Iraq, but the last feature had lost its role due to exacerbate corruption and demanding investor External bribes humbling before initiating a project, and with these positive effects, but the losses and the collapse of the industrial sector and stop the decline of the agricultural sector far outweigh those positive effects.
China has realized the positive role that could be caused by falling local currency to stimulate exports and the promotion of the industrial sector, so she periodically to reduce its currency to promote their goods on the global level, the industrial sector got up it is unprecedented in China since the eighties of the last century, the United States and became aware of this while turning the balance of trade in favor of China during the past two decades the policy, so the United States threatened to China to reduce other currency visits by imposing economic sanctions on China if she returned to the adoption of this policy, so China can not now cut its currency, if these policies for the development of the industrial sector did not come Out of the blue, but as a result of extensive studies and thoughtful planning, but we are in Iraq is arbitrary economic policies are studied that led to the destruction of the industrial sector and the deterioration of the agricultural sector.
How to get out of the current crisis due to the decline in world oil prices and previous economic policies is studied
There are elements of fixed and variable elements play a key role in determining the global price of oil, the most important fixed the basic elements is the ability to extract
Shale oil (Shale Oil)
At a cost of about 70 dollars per barrel, which is much less than the world price of oil until mid-2014, the variable elements Vohmha global political conditions, particularly the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic in Iran. The decline in oil prices had been expected for some time because of production
Shale oil (Shale Oil)
By the United States and Canada increased more than eight million barrels per day as well as China and Argentina, which led to the increase in oil supply for the required amount where world oil production in 2013 was around 90 million barrels per day and global consumption by the same amount any limits (90) million barrels Day The expected 2017 production is will be up to 102 million barrels per day due to increased shale oil production primarily as we mentioned will be consumption up to 96 million barrels per day any surplus up to 6 million barrels per day, but that helps to rising oil prices by relative is a high cost for the extraction of shale oil, which amounts up to the 70 dollars a barrel for that price quoted is expected in the near future between 50 dollars a barrel to 80 dollars a barrel if the shale oil production up to a reasonable where shale oil production has fallen significantly because of decline in global oil prices.
The variable elements nuclear Kalatvaq with the Islamic Republic in Iran, the continued agreement will play a role in the increase Iranian production, export and this will negatively affect the global price of oil.
What is the policy that must be followed by Dr. Haider al-Abadi to reform the economic situation
The shortfall in the budget requires make up the shortfall, and there are directions by the government to issue treasury bonds to take loans from international banks to pay for the shortfall in the operating budget of the Pension and others, that this decision is the most serious decision can be taken by the government, a crime against the Iraqi people and their future and that of the difficulty of this pay Loan of oil resources because of what we have said from the expectations of the difficulty of the rise of oil prices to previous levels, and this will open the door for the coming years to increase borrowing to meet the shortfall in the budget, this will lead naturally to the accumulation of debt on the state and accrue benefits, depend upon the country to lenders who impose austerity policies on the country to pay off the debt and this will increase and compounded the suffering of the citizens, with what is currently experienced by the citizen .......
What is the solution which can be taken in this case ???
Dr. Haider Abadi must take six big and bold steps are:
1.tkhvad Iraqi currency rate.
2.astrjaa stolen funds from the state by the former and current officials.
3.aalan a state of emergency against corruption.
4.akd political agreement with all the political blocs to stop the corruption process Almusharanh.
5.okhz loans from international banks for the establishment of the oil production infrastructure and other productive projects projects projects.
6.oda economic policy in order to develop the productive sectors and the trend towards privatization and creating job opportunities for the elimination of unemployment.
1. Reduction of the Iraqi currency rate
There are two solutions only two at the present time to make a quick decision to cover the shortfall in the budget, either by borrowing or reduce the currency exchange rate ......
But both resolutions negative effects and positive effects, but for loan positive The effects are to postpone the problem and not the solution to the problem, but the negative effects we are in the end we will have to reduce the currency after several years after that drowned in the deep swamp of debt, and as we mentioned earlier, the borrowing now to cover budget Operating primarily will open the door for the coming years to increase borrowing to meet the shortfall in operating particular budget, this will lead naturally to the accumulation of debt on the state and accrue benefits, depend upon the country to lenders who impose austerity policies on the country to pay off the debt and this will increase and compounded the suffering of the citizens, with what currently suffering citizens.
As for the reduction in the discharge of the currency rate, we proceed from the principle that exchange by income, if we spent the money is not our money, but borrowed money and benefits accumulated it must soak in the end, it will be Quana much more severe than the occurrence of Greece, for example, Greece state infrastructure incomplete electricity, water, hospitals, schools and housing, while we lack electricity net and water and sewage networks and we have a great weakness in the health and education system Vnaftqr for hospitals and good schools and dwell a lot of people in tin houses in the slums, and a lot of roads and public utilities subversive, and Snstlm cities subversive after Daash eliminate them and get them out the will of God.
The devaluation could have a negative effects can not lose sight of them, but must also adopt a set of solutions that reduce these negative effects, and the first of these drawbacks is what may come to mind from the loss of confidence in Iraqi currency and invest in Iraq, if confidence Iraqi currency is now weak because of volatility during the recent period and the absence of a clear monetary policy pursued by the State, as the currency's slide over the past period the state did not earn him any profit, but went profits into the pockets of thieves of their followers politicians, but in the case of a government decision to reduce currency for once and make the dollar equivalent of ((1500 dinars as the price was up to the year (2006), and is explain and clarify this procedure because of its positive effects on the development of the industrial and agricultural sector in this case it will strengthen confidence in the government, which take clear procedures and planned and not an arbitrary order the advancement and development of the country, but this procedure must be correlated with the following:
Keep the exchange preferentially to import the necessary materials such as some essential food items such as wheat, sugar and oils, meat, milk and other medicines and medical supplies and all materials and supplies that are necessary price, and preferential price is the exchange rate present any limits ((1200 dinars to the dollar. In this case, may not be the conduct of currency price preferential Depending on the lists does not know the validity and can be manipulated as is the case at present, but are approved preferential price in the open only bank credits, and in this way ensures that the theft of money depending on the difference between the rates of discharge.
Give preferential price for travelers from outside the country for treatment, in this case gives the traveler a specified amount and then pay the difference after bringing User hospital certified by the Iraqi embassy in that country.
Give preferential price for all imported machinery and supplies for laboratories and industrial enterprises and raw materials, as well as all the machines, agricultural supplies and to assist in the industrial and agricultural renaissance required for the development of the country.
The price of the new drainage must be pricier one and steady may not be taking the high commission by the banks and money changers.
If the devaluation of the exchange rate at this level any by about 30%, this could provide a surplus of up to 25% of the budget, if the budget was up to the 70 billion dollars for this year, the surplus will be up to the 17 billion dollars and this amount over b (5) billion dollars which Iraq is seeking to obtain from the loan, depending on the treasury bonds amounting to 12 billion dollars.
You must use this surplus effectively in the important projects of the country without commissions or robberies, but which feared him greatly that the political parties that formed the economic committees to get the commission through its ministries projects, but I was shocked because of the shrinking budget due to lower oil prices eyes will open dramatically to pounce on this surplus, so if Brother Haydar al-Abadi take a clear policy as will be described in the following paragraphs to stop corruption, this increase in funds will dock again in the pockets of the corrupt.
2. Retrieval of stolen funds from the state by the former and current officials.
Number lagging projects since 2003 until today has reached more than eight thousand project and cost more than 270 billion dollars, and more than 99% of these projects are lagging behind because of corruption, which have not been government contracts transparency instructions application and open the way for all companies to provide even agreement was reached with specific companies in advance and is solid was agreed with them to pay large commissions, When are payments in advance for these companies by the state, it is recovered these amounts as commission by the government agency that gave them the contract, then the company demanding another push, but they find themselves able to do the project because it is efficient and fear of loss, seizes what you received from the funds and leave the project without completion, turning what you received from the funds out of the country, and fears the government agency that contracted with in the beginning of the prosecution of this company lagging in completion of the project because it is the Hospt Vcetkhv commissions paid to the government agency, Vskt all about them and go each Party of funds earned it, but perhaps these two are relatives or friends, and Mtlkia project remains unfinished.
The government has and the provinces and all state institutions to contract more than nine thousand project since 2003 until today, although the number of projects lagging has reached more than eight thousand project, that is done is up to 10% of the projects, the total cost of these projects have exceeded the (270) billion dollars, while the payment of the amount shared by the government agency with the company's lagging usually amounting to 30% of the contract value, ie the total amount stolen is about the (80) billion dollars.
What can you do, Dr. Haider Abadi Faced with this situation ???
One may say must be held accountable and punish those responsible and booking their money, but this solution is not realistic, there is no basis for the demand to punish the corrupt, but the base requirement is returned largest amount of these (80) billion dollars, how way to do that ?????
Starting must bring a global consulting firm in the field of accounting, and the company holds this review lagging projects and to identify the reasons for the delay, then the meeting is lagging companies and dialoguing to get to know them on Tlkahm reasons, and to identify them on the amount of commission they paid to the government agency.
Assesses starting work done and expensive, and ask the company complete the project, it was unable and incompetent requesting them to pay the amounts received with discount the cost of the work done, and calculating the benefit to them by no more than 10% of the work done value, it claimed that it paid kickbacks to government hand asks codifying words highlighting all the evidence proving that they have paid kickbacks. then ask the government agency returns the remainder of the amounts taken tribes have an amnesty where no benefit claim the full amount returns which do not Tsttiah, it is not required to punish people but required returns the largest amount to the Treasury Iraqi, and the remainder remains we have on this government agency to return it when the offer. The problem that may arise that a large amount of this money has been paid to political parties, in this case ask the political party returned these amounts, it was incapable of the full amount is returned requesting them to submit lists of third-party exchange, and then conducted a final settlement with the political parties, and is at the same time accelerate the enactment of the law of parties and allocation of funds within the budget for all represented in the parliament and political parties. As for those who do not cooperate and remain outside the country can deal with the basis of UN Convention United to fight corruption, which was signed by Iraq under Law No. (35) for the year (2007) publication of the Iraqi facts numbered (4047) for the year (2007) in addition to the text of the Convention published Iraqi facts numbered (4093) for the year (2008) has commented on the Convention as the legal adviser in Iraqi Foreign Ministry Mr. Hussein Khalisi in the network of Iraqi economists on 12/18/2014 where imposes on all participating countries the return of stolen funds and raise the person bank secrecy of the accused and confiscated real estate that Sharett this money and the decision of the Iraqi courts also apply to persons dual nationality. I can not to predict the amounts that will be retrieved in this way, but it certainly will not be less than fifteen billion dollars, and perhaps will be much more, and Iraq in desperate need of these funds which the right of every Iraqi citizen and legitimate duty imposes such action was narrated that Ali (AS) who should be public money without the right to said (and if God and his grandmother had married by women and the king of his slaves to the argument raised by the the Justice capacity and of narrowed it justice Valjor it narrower.) The brother Haider al-Abadi must take firm and bold and courageous decision, this is his mission as head of the Council of Ministers has accepted this position, he should bear the responsibility before God and the first in front of his people and his homeland Secondly, I am sure that I take this decision will play attribution of all the Iraqi people and on top of reference of Great Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
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Thursday July 30, 2015
(Proposed solutions to Dr. Haidar al-Abadi out of the economic crisis suffocating)
Iraq is not the most countries only corrupt in the world, it is the state's number one in corruption in the world in terms of the amounts stolen from the citizen for the benefit of spoilers, Vemoazinh Iraq, which amounted to about 140 billion dollars, we can say with confidence that a large proportion of this budget go thefts in the pockets of corrupt politicians who are primarily and their passengers from walking down the spoilers of the general public, and can not be compared to this budget Somalia budget, which is the first country in corruption, while not amounting to five billion dollars a year budget.
One of the distinctive ways corruption is resulting from the currency conversion of the Iraqi dinar to the dollar and this corruption of the core functions of the Central Bank of Iraq.
The Central Bank of Iraq sells a day more than 200 million US dollars and takes contrast Iraqi dinars at a conversion price (one dollar = 1166 dinars) and added to this price commission of the Central Bank, which amount to 24 dinars for each dollar which becomes the final conversion rate (Dollar per = 1190 dinars), but for the sale of Iraqi dinar in the market (parallel price) was Mzbzba price in the recent period and amounted to sharply higher (one dollar = 1370 dinars) and the Near sharply (one dollar = 1220 dinars) during the previous period, nor of materials imported food and goods by traders who remit the amounts officially to buy real goods half that amount, or that the amounts purchased from the dollar by false lists of more than 100 million dollars a day, and if we took holidays (Friday and Saturday) and holidays sporadic and other that do not exceed ten days a whole month, we find that the central bank sells during the twenty days in the month, more than two billion dollars to speculators from the corrupt politicians and their followers layer per month, even if we assume that they are selling the dollar at a rate of (dollar per = 1250 dinars) in the market, That is, they are making a profit by 5 cents for every dollar, that is, they are making a profit per month up to a hundred million dollars, and reflected this difference on the increase in the prices of food and other goods purchased by traders who do not have (and Asitat) with the Central Bank where they buy Dollar parallel price any market price of any amount (one dollar = 1250 dinars) reflected this difference is not an increase in prices only increase in the amounts withdrawn from the market and from the general budget of the country is reflected shortages across the board, Kolmbalg allocated to the reconstruction and the provision of services of electricity, water and other well the shortfall against the displaced families and fighters of the army, police, and other popular crowd. The total amount of the shortfall of more than one billion and two hundred million dollars a year, and a simple calculation we discover that every Iraqi family paid a sum between the (250 to 350 dollars) per year of the daily power to corrupt politicians and their followers.
The descent value of the currency is a normal in a lot of countries in the region, and the descent of the currency impact in the first place a negative impact on the increase in the prices of imported goods and materials, but in the long term provides a ground to achieve the renaissance of industrial, agricultural and even general renaissance for all sectors of productivity if taken the right economic policies, This has been achieved in many countries such as Turkey and Iran, the region, where the currency going down so dramatically in these two countries during the past three decades, but the industrial renaissance in these two countries was too great not only because of the currency decline, but due to make informed economic policies as well as the agricultural and tourism in the two countries renaissance, while in Iraq, the descent of the currency was primarily for the domain of a group of politicians to get rich open on the suffering of the people account so there was two prices for the currency big difference with the adoption of counterfeit menus as it turns out this is to everyone through the media, I have This fact is revealed to the government which was headed by al-Maliki, and instead of finding solutions that corruption stops taken the solution that deepen corruption and makes this potential to benefit non-legitimate under Maliki's control through the imposition of the appointment of Mr. Ali Keywords governor of the Central Bank, a center must be filled by someone efficiently with extensive experience and long in the financial and banking sector and be independent is calculated on the political side, unfortunately Mr. Ali Keywords not entitled to these specifications, this does not mean I accuse Mr. Ali Keywords or al-Maliki of corruption in this area, but such an appointment raises the range of possibilities and questions, and I leave for the reader to reach logical conclusions and possibilities that can respond to the mind from the insistence of Mr. al-Maliki to impose on the Keywords to be the central bank governor with his lack of the required qualifications.
Sabotage the Iraqi economy process
The biggest sabotage the Iraqi economy process occurred during the previous years was due to the lack of a clearly defined economic policy, where the decisions are arbitrary without planning or study and what it could have on those decisions of the subversive effects of the Iraqi economy.
For example, we find that the value of the Iraqi dinar was nearly three thousand Iraqi dinars before 2003 have been raising the value of the Iraqi dinar to one thousand five hundred dinars to the dollar and remained that is adopted for subsequent years the price.
But without study and familiar consequences decision was made arbitrarily during the first ministry period for the owners raised the value of the Iraqi dinar than one thousand and five hundred dinars to the dollar to less than a thousand and two hundred dinars to the dollar, that this decision to lift the value of the Iraqi dinar up to thirty percent resulted in the destruction of the Iraqi industry at the sector level the public and the private sector, as a result of this decision to increase the cost of goods produced in Iraq up to thirty percent, making them uncompetitive and similar imported from outside the borders of goods, stopped on the impact of government laboratories as well as private sector plants because of the inability to market Iraqi products in the Iraqi market, As a result of this sitting this factory workers in their homes and pay monthly salaries to them without any productivity, Iraqi worker productivity has declined in many industrial sectors to zero, and at a time when Iraq is one of the more advanced countries in the Middle East in industrial production, we find that a lot of industries have stopped and became the laboratory after a period of time is not valid due to suspension of the machines for production for several years, it was the previous period an ideal time to develop industries is unrivaled because of the increased financial resources and lift the siege on the country to develop factories to the production in the developed countries level as well as the establishment of new plants cover other industrial sectors.
The rise in the conduct of the Iraqi dinar rate by thirty percent led to an increase the cost of agricultural production by asymptotic to thirty percent, thus becoming the agricultural products imported from neighboring countries cheaper than those planted inside Iraq, and the impact I told Iraqi farm productivity, and turned a lot of agricultural land to neglected land , and the government has to patch the situation by buying some of the Iraqi agricultural products at a price more than the price of imported, and has a lot of Iraqi farmers to buy a lot of these products from outside the country and sold to the government at a higher price, has helped to this rampant corruption on a massive level in state institutions, have This led to a lot of waste of state funds as well as losses starting a result of rampant corruption on a large scale.
The high rate of the dinar has some of the effects of positive and very cheap imported goods, and achieve Iraqi traveler from surplus when traveling outside of Iraq, as well as improve the reputation of the country's economic to pay investors from outside the country to invest in Iraq, but the last feature had lost its role due to exacerbate corruption and demanding investor External bribes humbling before initiating a project, and with these positive effects, but the losses and the collapse of the industrial sector and stop the decline of the agricultural sector far outweigh those positive effects.
China has realized the positive role that could be caused by falling local currency to stimulate exports and the promotion of the industrial sector, so she periodically to reduce its currency to promote their goods on the global level, the industrial sector got up it is unprecedented in China since the eighties of the last century, the United States and became aware of this while turning the balance of trade in favor of China during the past two decades the policy, so the United States threatened to China to reduce other currency visits by imposing economic sanctions on China if she returned to the adoption of this policy, so China can not now cut its currency, if these policies for the development of the industrial sector did not come Out of the blue, but as a result of extensive studies and thoughtful planning, but we are in Iraq is arbitrary economic policies are studied that led to the destruction of the industrial sector and the deterioration of the agricultural sector.
How to get out of the current crisis due to the decline in world oil prices and previous economic policies is studied
There are elements of fixed and variable elements play a key role in determining the global price of oil, the most important fixed the basic elements is the ability to extract
Shale oil (Shale Oil)
At a cost of about 70 dollars per barrel, which is much less than the world price of oil until mid-2014, the variable elements Vohmha global political conditions, particularly the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic in Iran. The decline in oil prices had been expected for some time because of production
Shale oil (Shale Oil)
By the United States and Canada increased more than eight million barrels per day as well as China and Argentina, which led to the increase in oil supply for the required amount where world oil production in 2013 was around 90 million barrels per day and global consumption by the same amount any limits (90) million barrels Day The expected 2017 production is will be up to 102 million barrels per day due to increased shale oil production primarily as we mentioned will be consumption up to 96 million barrels per day any surplus up to 6 million barrels per day, but that helps to rising oil prices by relative is a high cost for the extraction of shale oil, which amounts up to the 70 dollars a barrel for that price quoted is expected in the near future between 50 dollars a barrel to 80 dollars a barrel if the shale oil production up to a reasonable where shale oil production has fallen significantly because of decline in global oil prices.
The variable elements nuclear Kalatvaq with the Islamic Republic in Iran, the continued agreement will play a role in the increase Iranian production, export and this will negatively affect the global price of oil.
What is the policy that must be followed by Dr. Haider al-Abadi to reform the economic situation
The shortfall in the budget requires make up the shortfall, and there are directions by the government to issue treasury bonds to take loans from international banks to pay for the shortfall in the operating budget of the Pension and others, that this decision is the most serious decision can be taken by the government, a crime against the Iraqi people and their future and that of the difficulty of this pay Loan of oil resources because of what we have said from the expectations of the difficulty of the rise of oil prices to previous levels, and this will open the door for the coming years to increase borrowing to meet the shortfall in the budget, this will lead naturally to the accumulation of debt on the state and accrue benefits, depend upon the country to lenders who impose austerity policies on the country to pay off the debt and this will increase and compounded the suffering of the citizens, with what is currently experienced by the citizen .......
What is the solution which can be taken in this case ???
Dr. Haider Abadi must take six big and bold steps are:
1.tkhvad Iraqi currency rate.
2.astrjaa stolen funds from the state by the former and current officials.
3.aalan a state of emergency against corruption.
4.akd political agreement with all the political blocs to stop the corruption process Almusharanh.
5.okhz loans from international banks for the establishment of the oil production infrastructure and other productive projects projects projects.
6.oda economic policy in order to develop the productive sectors and the trend towards privatization and creating job opportunities for the elimination of unemployment.
1. Reduction of the Iraqi currency rate
There are two solutions only two at the present time to make a quick decision to cover the shortfall in the budget, either by borrowing or reduce the currency exchange rate ......
But both resolutions negative effects and positive effects, but for loan positive The effects are to postpone the problem and not the solution to the problem, but the negative effects we are in the end we will have to reduce the currency after several years after that drowned in the deep swamp of debt, and as we mentioned earlier, the borrowing now to cover budget Operating primarily will open the door for the coming years to increase borrowing to meet the shortfall in operating particular budget, this will lead naturally to the accumulation of debt on the state and accrue benefits, depend upon the country to lenders who impose austerity policies on the country to pay off the debt and this will increase and compounded the suffering of the citizens, with what currently suffering citizens.
As for the reduction in the discharge of the currency rate, we proceed from the principle that exchange by income, if we spent the money is not our money, but borrowed money and benefits accumulated it must soak in the end, it will be Quana much more severe than the occurrence of Greece, for example, Greece state infrastructure incomplete electricity, water, hospitals, schools and housing, while we lack electricity net and water and sewage networks and we have a great weakness in the health and education system Vnaftqr for hospitals and good schools and dwell a lot of people in tin houses in the slums, and a lot of roads and public utilities subversive, and Snstlm cities subversive after Daash eliminate them and get them out the will of God.
The devaluation could have a negative effects can not lose sight of them, but must also adopt a set of solutions that reduce these negative effects, and the first of these drawbacks is what may come to mind from the loss of confidence in Iraqi currency and invest in Iraq, if confidence Iraqi currency is now weak because of volatility during the recent period and the absence of a clear monetary policy pursued by the State, as the currency's slide over the past period the state did not earn him any profit, but went profits into the pockets of thieves of their followers politicians, but in the case of a government decision to reduce currency for once and make the dollar equivalent of ((1500 dinars as the price was up to the year (2006), and is explain and clarify this procedure because of its positive effects on the development of the industrial and agricultural sector in this case it will strengthen confidence in the government, which take clear procedures and planned and not an arbitrary order the advancement and development of the country, but this procedure must be correlated with the following:
Keep the exchange preferentially to import the necessary materials such as some essential food items such as wheat, sugar and oils, meat, milk and other medicines and medical supplies and all materials and supplies that are necessary price, and preferential price is the exchange rate present any limits ((1200 dinars to the dollar. In this case, may not be the conduct of currency price preferential Depending on the lists does not know the validity and can be manipulated as is the case at present, but are approved preferential price in the open only bank credits, and in this way ensures that the theft of money depending on the difference between the rates of discharge.
Give preferential price for travelers from outside the country for treatment, in this case gives the traveler a specified amount and then pay the difference after bringing User hospital certified by the Iraqi embassy in that country.
Give preferential price for all imported machinery and supplies for laboratories and industrial enterprises and raw materials, as well as all the machines, agricultural supplies and to assist in the industrial and agricultural renaissance required for the development of the country.
The price of the new drainage must be pricier one and steady may not be taking the high commission by the banks and money changers.
If the devaluation of the exchange rate at this level any by about 30%, this could provide a surplus of up to 25% of the budget, if the budget was up to the 70 billion dollars for this year, the surplus will be up to the 17 billion dollars and this amount over b (5) billion dollars which Iraq is seeking to obtain from the loan, depending on the treasury bonds amounting to 12 billion dollars.
You must use this surplus effectively in the important projects of the country without commissions or robberies, but which feared him greatly that the political parties that formed the economic committees to get the commission through its ministries projects, but I was shocked because of the shrinking budget due to lower oil prices eyes will open dramatically to pounce on this surplus, so if Brother Haydar al-Abadi take a clear policy as will be described in the following paragraphs to stop corruption, this increase in funds will dock again in the pockets of the corrupt.
2. Retrieval of stolen funds from the state by the former and current officials.
Number lagging projects since 2003 until today has reached more than eight thousand project and cost more than 270 billion dollars, and more than 99% of these projects are lagging behind because of corruption, which have not been government contracts transparency instructions application and open the way for all companies to provide even agreement was reached with specific companies in advance and is solid was agreed with them to pay large commissions, When are payments in advance for these companies by the state, it is recovered these amounts as commission by the government agency that gave them the contract, then the company demanding another push, but they find themselves able to do the project because it is efficient and fear of loss, seizes what you received from the funds and leave the project without completion, turning what you received from the funds out of the country, and fears the government agency that contracted with in the beginning of the prosecution of this company lagging in completion of the project because it is the Hospt Vcetkhv commissions paid to the government agency, Vskt all about them and go each Party of funds earned it, but perhaps these two are relatives or friends, and Mtlkia project remains unfinished.
The government has and the provinces and all state institutions to contract more than nine thousand project since 2003 until today, although the number of projects lagging has reached more than eight thousand project, that is done is up to 10% of the projects, the total cost of these projects have exceeded the (270) billion dollars, while the payment of the amount shared by the government agency with the company's lagging usually amounting to 30% of the contract value, ie the total amount stolen is about the (80) billion dollars.
What can you do, Dr. Haider Abadi Faced with this situation ???
One may say must be held accountable and punish those responsible and booking their money, but this solution is not realistic, there is no basis for the demand to punish the corrupt, but the base requirement is returned largest amount of these (80) billion dollars, how way to do that ?????
Starting must bring a global consulting firm in the field of accounting, and the company holds this review lagging projects and to identify the reasons for the delay, then the meeting is lagging companies and dialoguing to get to know them on Tlkahm reasons, and to identify them on the amount of commission they paid to the government agency.
Assesses starting work done and expensive, and ask the company complete the project, it was unable and incompetent requesting them to pay the amounts received with discount the cost of the work done, and calculating the benefit to them by no more than 10% of the work done value, it claimed that it paid kickbacks to government hand asks codifying words highlighting all the evidence proving that they have paid kickbacks. then ask the government agency returns the remainder of the amounts taken tribes have an amnesty where no benefit claim the full amount returns which do not Tsttiah, it is not required to punish people but required returns the largest amount to the Treasury Iraqi, and the remainder remains we have on this government agency to return it when the offer. The problem that may arise that a large amount of this money has been paid to political parties, in this case ask the political party returned these amounts, it was incapable of the full amount is returned requesting them to submit lists of third-party exchange, and then conducted a final settlement with the political parties, and is at the same time accelerate the enactment of the law of parties and allocation of funds within the budget for all represented in the parliament and political parties. As for those who do not cooperate and remain outside the country can deal with the basis of UN Convention United to fight corruption, which was signed by Iraq under Law No. (35) for the year (2007) publication of the Iraqi facts numbered (4047) for the year (2007) in addition to the text of the Convention published Iraqi facts numbered (4093) for the year (2008) has commented on the Convention as the legal adviser in Iraqi Foreign Ministry Mr. Hussein Khalisi in the network of Iraqi economists on 12/18/2014 where imposes on all participating countries the return of stolen funds and raise the person bank secrecy of the accused and confiscated real estate that Sharett this money and the decision of the Iraqi courts also apply to persons dual nationality. I can not to predict the amounts that will be retrieved in this way, but it certainly will not be less than fifteen billion dollars, and perhaps will be much more, and Iraq in desperate need of these funds which the right of every Iraqi citizen and legitimate duty imposes such action was narrated that Ali (AS) who should be public money without the right to said (and if God and his grandmother had married by women and the king of his slaves to the argument raised by the the Justice capacity and of narrowed it justice Valjor it narrower.) The brother Haider al-Abadi must take firm and bold and courageous decision, this is his mission as head of the Council of Ministers has accepted this position, he should bear the responsibility before God and the first in front of his people and his homeland Secondly, I am sure that I take this decision will play attribution of all the Iraqi people and on top of reference of Great Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
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