Home
Stratfor": Is the Russian campaign stretch in Syria to Iraq?
10/14/15
First, the current site of Russia in Syria, and marine assets in the Caspian Sea, and long-range bombers in the south of Russia could carry out operations against al «Islamic state» in Iraq. But you can blows more effective and more abundant use of bases in Iraq itself.
Second: the establishment of bases in Iraq cost Russia more money, time and effort as they run the risk of alienating the United States.
Third, through its operations in Syria, Russia tested their ability to lead an air campaigns. This is the first time that Russia, during which Chen air campaign since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Analysis
Gave the beginning of the Russian air strikes in Syria, new hope for the pro-government forces in their battle against a group of rebel factions, including the «Islamic State». Comments that are now out of Baghdad and Moscow indicate that Russia may expand the scope of these operations to include Iraq if requested formally by Baghdad. In fact, from its location in Latakia, Russia has the ability to hit a series of targets «Islamic state» in Iraq despite being the need to deploy more resources to do so effectively.
Expand these operations to Iraq would, however, put the Russian troops in the same land battle with US forces. Russia's goal of its operations in Syria and possibly interfering in Iraq is the pressure on the US position and force Washington to engage in high-level negotiations. This puts Baghdad, as well as Iran, the most prominent players active in the Iraqi theater, in a difficult position. To Baghdad in the end a difficult decision to be taken by either Moscow's refusal to aid and continued reliance on US military support or welcome in Moscow in its territory with the risk of nuisance Western ally.
Logistical barriers
Strictly speaking, the goals are located in Iraq are already within range of Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea and Mqtalat Su Su -24 -34 with long-range guns stationed in the Basil al-Assad air base in Syria. Although these aircraft will need more time for practical implementation in Iraq compared to the situation in Syria, Russia can play provide aerial refueling operations to deal with it.
However, the supply of this fuel operations, as well as the times of long-haul flights, will raise the aircraft maintenance requirements and makes accidents more likely. Will be on the Russian aircraft to carry less weight loads and the conversion of aircraft in Iraq will also mean decline in Syria. Over the past week, Russia had maintained an average of about 20 sorties a day using 32 aircraft stationed at the Basil al-Assad air base in Syria, specifically in Latakia.
The re-allocation of resources for strikes over long distances in Iraq will slow the pace of relatively moderate operations in Syria.
To date, Russia has already shown it is capable of hitting targets in all parts of the Syrian and Iraqi entire territory if necessary.
Russian aircraft deployed long-range bombers in the southern air bases in Russia can fly south to hit targets in the Middle East, despite the fact that Moscow has so far refrained from use in Syria. Cruz Navy missile launchers that Russia had already used it in Syria could also be useful in Iraq.
Russian ships fired 26 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea, targeting Syrian targets after that passed the Iranian and Iraqi Balvdhaean. Four of these missiles crashed in Iran near the city of Tekab witness to it is likely that the experience of Russia in fact limited in the use of this type of weapon in an operational environment. But the strikes are still prove that the Russian Navy assets have the ability to hit targets in Aera s.
su-34-russian-plane-range_0
Square crowded battle
There are more effective for long-range missions aviation alternative, which is to establish air bases in Iraq. There are already many runways unused available to the Russians there. Recent experience in Syria showed that Russia fully able to create effective air base in about a month. This includes the Russians bring in to run the air base and the deployment of logistical support and the provision of force protection systems.
However, this option raises logistical cost, because of the economic sanctions and the prices of the low-power they already impose a significant burden on Russia could make the Kremlin hesitate long before investing in security operations in Iraq. In addition, the deployment of Russian air assets in Iraq will make the Russians are very close to the sites of American assets and operations, raising the likelihood of accidents, or at least it would impose on Russia and the United States coordinate and cooperate closely.
The presence of US troops in Iraq is likely that it will deter Russia from sending its own ground forces. Without troops on the ground are working side-by-side with the Iraqis, Russia will face a big tactical difficulties in coordination with the Iraqi army and that can make air strikes less effective.
In Syria, Russian ground forces deployed Limited between pro-government units act as channels of communication between Russian troops and aircraft, it is also working to provide intelligence information. syria-iraq-us-air-bases-graphic
In Iraq, this interaction with the Iraqi security forces will be very tough, and the development of Russian troops on the ground in the theater, where US troops are already could create a conflict. While Russia is cooperating closely with the Iranian forces, in fact, there is no large numbers of them in Iraq.
In addition to the costs that countless that will be the case in the face of Russia has decided to expand its operations to Iraq, the Iraq itself has to decide in the end whether to seek assistance from Moscow is worthy of tension in his relationship with the United States.
The United States has devoted its efforts in Iraq much more than Syria. To risk losing this support, Iraq is bound to see enormous benefits of Russian military intervention.
Unlike the US military, which uses a wide range of assets in the intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance to hit targets with precision-guided munitions, the Russians were using unguided to hit a wider range of targets without distinction weapons. Russia is also not governed by the same rules of engagement that limit the United States. Under the law, the operations of the United States is committed to reducing the risk of civilian casualties and limit collateral damage.
Iraq may decide that the threat of «Islamic State» justify heavy-handed approach used by Moscow in spite of the risks posed to civilians
Source: Stratfor
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
10/14/15
First, the current site of Russia in Syria, and marine assets in the Caspian Sea, and long-range bombers in the south of Russia could carry out operations against al «Islamic state» in Iraq. But you can blows more effective and more abundant use of bases in Iraq itself.
Second: the establishment of bases in Iraq cost Russia more money, time and effort as they run the risk of alienating the United States.
Third, through its operations in Syria, Russia tested their ability to lead an air campaigns. This is the first time that Russia, during which Chen air campaign since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Analysis
Gave the beginning of the Russian air strikes in Syria, new hope for the pro-government forces in their battle against a group of rebel factions, including the «Islamic State». Comments that are now out of Baghdad and Moscow indicate that Russia may expand the scope of these operations to include Iraq if requested formally by Baghdad. In fact, from its location in Latakia, Russia has the ability to hit a series of targets «Islamic state» in Iraq despite being the need to deploy more resources to do so effectively.
Expand these operations to Iraq would, however, put the Russian troops in the same land battle with US forces. Russia's goal of its operations in Syria and possibly interfering in Iraq is the pressure on the US position and force Washington to engage in high-level negotiations. This puts Baghdad, as well as Iran, the most prominent players active in the Iraqi theater, in a difficult position. To Baghdad in the end a difficult decision to be taken by either Moscow's refusal to aid and continued reliance on US military support or welcome in Moscow in its territory with the risk of nuisance Western ally.
Logistical barriers
Strictly speaking, the goals are located in Iraq are already within range of Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea and Mqtalat Su Su -24 -34 with long-range guns stationed in the Basil al-Assad air base in Syria. Although these aircraft will need more time for practical implementation in Iraq compared to the situation in Syria, Russia can play provide aerial refueling operations to deal with it.
However, the supply of this fuel operations, as well as the times of long-haul flights, will raise the aircraft maintenance requirements and makes accidents more likely. Will be on the Russian aircraft to carry less weight loads and the conversion of aircraft in Iraq will also mean decline in Syria. Over the past week, Russia had maintained an average of about 20 sorties a day using 32 aircraft stationed at the Basil al-Assad air base in Syria, specifically in Latakia.
The re-allocation of resources for strikes over long distances in Iraq will slow the pace of relatively moderate operations in Syria.
To date, Russia has already shown it is capable of hitting targets in all parts of the Syrian and Iraqi entire territory if necessary.
Russian aircraft deployed long-range bombers in the southern air bases in Russia can fly south to hit targets in the Middle East, despite the fact that Moscow has so far refrained from use in Syria. Cruz Navy missile launchers that Russia had already used it in Syria could also be useful in Iraq.
Russian ships fired 26 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea, targeting Syrian targets after that passed the Iranian and Iraqi Balvdhaean. Four of these missiles crashed in Iran near the city of Tekab witness to it is likely that the experience of Russia in fact limited in the use of this type of weapon in an operational environment. But the strikes are still prove that the Russian Navy assets have the ability to hit targets in Aera s.
su-34-russian-plane-range_0
Square crowded battle
There are more effective for long-range missions aviation alternative, which is to establish air bases in Iraq. There are already many runways unused available to the Russians there. Recent experience in Syria showed that Russia fully able to create effective air base in about a month. This includes the Russians bring in to run the air base and the deployment of logistical support and the provision of force protection systems.
However, this option raises logistical cost, because of the economic sanctions and the prices of the low-power they already impose a significant burden on Russia could make the Kremlin hesitate long before investing in security operations in Iraq. In addition, the deployment of Russian air assets in Iraq will make the Russians are very close to the sites of American assets and operations, raising the likelihood of accidents, or at least it would impose on Russia and the United States coordinate and cooperate closely.
The presence of US troops in Iraq is likely that it will deter Russia from sending its own ground forces. Without troops on the ground are working side-by-side with the Iraqis, Russia will face a big tactical difficulties in coordination with the Iraqi army and that can make air strikes less effective.
In Syria, Russian ground forces deployed Limited between pro-government units act as channels of communication between Russian troops and aircraft, it is also working to provide intelligence information. syria-iraq-us-air-bases-graphic
In Iraq, this interaction with the Iraqi security forces will be very tough, and the development of Russian troops on the ground in the theater, where US troops are already could create a conflict. While Russia is cooperating closely with the Iranian forces, in fact, there is no large numbers of them in Iraq.
In addition to the costs that countless that will be the case in the face of Russia has decided to expand its operations to Iraq, the Iraq itself has to decide in the end whether to seek assistance from Moscow is worthy of tension in his relationship with the United States.
The United States has devoted its efforts in Iraq much more than Syria. To risk losing this support, Iraq is bound to see enormous benefits of Russian military intervention.
Unlike the US military, which uses a wide range of assets in the intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance to hit targets with precision-guided munitions, the Russians were using unguided to hit a wider range of targets without distinction weapons. Russia is also not governed by the same rules of engagement that limit the United States. Under the law, the operations of the United States is committed to reducing the risk of civilian casualties and limit collateral damage.
Iraq may decide that the threat of «Islamic State» justify heavy-handed approach used by Moscow in spite of the risks posed to civilians
Source: Stratfor
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
