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Dr.. Ali Mirza*: Perspectives on consumption and production of energy in the world until 2040 - with reference to prospects for absorption of Iraqi oil production/exports
by Dr. Ali Merza
- Posted on 07/04/2019
First: Introduction
Many governmental, international, commercial and oil companies are reporting on the potential evolution of energy consumption and production in the world over a quarter of a century or more in the future.
Perhaps the most famous and most influential of these reports, prepared by the International Energy Agency, International Energy Agency, IEA.
The 2019-2017 reports are particularly important given the arrival of energy policies in the replacement and planned replacement of various forms of energy, away from fossil fuels, including oil, in other forms.
Some of these reports can be listed as follows: IEA, OPEC, EIA, BP, Exxon/Mobil, CNPC, Bloomberg, etc.
Most of these reports did not all foresee developments in the same direction of slowing growth and then declining oil consumption in developed countries and growing consumption in India and other developing countries, and continued development in China, etc.
Thus, the Asian market will be a relatively growing center for oil consumption and attractive and competitive for oil imports from exporting countries.
Therefore, it is necessary to deal with these reports and to present the tracks they are facing, especially for the future of oil production and consumption (and gas).
This is of great importance to the oil exporting countries, including Iraq.
In this paper we will focus on four binocular reports, three of which were issued in 2018 and one in early 2019, with a time span of 2040.
These reports represent different producers and consumers of energy in their various forms.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents the consumer / developed countries (OECD) in general.
And the second OPEC, which represents the most important oil exporting countries.
And the third and fourth (for the early 2018 and 2019) of BP, which may be considered as representing global oil / energy companies. See figure 1 below.
On the other hand, although this paper focuses on these four reports / perspectives, other reports / perspectives will be quickly referred to for comparison or clarification.
The presentation in this paper is not limited to the results of these perspectives, the assumed policies and the expected technologies and their impact on the production and consumption of the various forms of energy and the relative importance (s) of these forms, including crude oil and natural gas.
The presentation will also describe the guidelines for the preparation of these perspectives with their different scenarios, including the most important variables and factors used in the process of drawing these scenarios.
Figure (1) Reports of four perspectives
Merza figure 1
To continue reading please download the BDF file for easy reading and printing at the following link :
Merza_2_World_Energy_Outlooks_2018_2019__
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* Economist and writer.
Copyright © Iraqi Economists Network. Reproduction is permitted provided that reference is made to the source. 7 April 2019.
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