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A researcher reviews the possibility of changing the price of the dollar and its consequences for the economy and international relations
484 Economie 10/20/2022 21:51
Baghdad today - Baghdad
Today, Thursday, economic researcher Manar Al-Obaidi reviewed the political, international and economic effects in the event of a change in the dollar exchange rate, while
indicating that all these indicators oppose manipulating the price of the dollar again, in exchange for public pressure that wants to restore the old price, which may make the next government in puzzled.
Al-Obaidi said in a clarification that I saw (Baghdad Today), that
“with the political changes, the theory of restoring the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar came to mind, and is there a possibility of restoring the exchange rate ,” noting that
“economically, any process of a quick change of the exchange rate will lead to weak confidence in the economy.”
And the rise in oil prices cannot be considered a permanent factor on which economic foundations can be built.
The rise in oil prices came as a result of a conflict between one of the major producing countries and the OPEC Plus agreements that limited the increase in demand over supply. He added:
"However, this rise has been warned by international bodies, including the World Bank, that there is a forthcoming inflation crisis and global economic stagnation that could lead to a significant decline in demand for oil, which may lead to a reduction in the price and therefore it is not possible to rely on high oil revenues to build a policy. long-term cash.
In addition, Al-Obaidi clarifies a very important factor, which is
"the continuation of the operational consumption pattern of the budget and the rise in the salary bill was one of the main reasons that led to the change of the exchange rate, and
any operation to restore the exchange rate in return for the continued rise in the government salary bill and operational expenses will lead to the disruption of the Iraqi economy and return to square
It is not possible to adopt the theory of changing the exchange rate now or in the future unless the issue of the salary bill is resolved and the productivity of the public sector is increased in a way through which it can finance part of its expenditures without the need for total dependence on oil.”
As for politically , Al-Obaidi explains that
“as a result of the political conflicts that have passed and as a result of the issuance of a certain political party on the entire political scene, this party may try to achieve a quick economic victory to strengthen its pillars at the expense of the other political party, regardless of its economic results.
Therefore, these parties may work by passing a process of change exchange rate regardless of its current and future economic impact.”
On the international level , Al-Obaidi indicates that
“all international financial bodies will not support the process of changing the exchange rate and may lead to the lifting of the support of some international bodies provided to Iraq, which no political party would like,
which also does not want to send a picture to those parties that it does not She understands a lot about monetary policy and works against the recommendations of international financial bodies, as international relations are important for these political bodies.
As for the public,
“despite the fact that the issue of raising the price of the dinar against the dollar is a popular demand as a result of its connection to the rise in inflation rates, although the price change was not the only factor in increasing inflation,
now the public will press strongly on the political parties that have long called for the necessity of raising the price of the dinar against the dollar.” dollar and return to the old price," says Al-Obaidi.
In light of the above data, Al-Obaidi concluded,
“It is not expected that the next government will make a radical change in the exchange rate, and
the most important factor in pressing for the return of the exchange rate will remain the public pressure that may be reflected on Parliament to work on changing the exchange rate, and
political parties may carry out long parliamentary maneuvers to prolong He extended the lack of change until the period before the next elections in order to count for it a great victory and use it as a successful electoral card through which it can win over the electoral public.
And he concluded:
"In the end, when monetary policy is linked to public policy and the parties compete without a fixed financial and economic vision agreed upon by all, the economy of Iraq will remain contingent on the parties' desire to win over the public, regardless of the economic effects of changing policies."
A researcher reviews the possibility of changing the price of the dollar and its consequences for the economy and international relations
484 Economie 10/20/2022 21:51
Baghdad today - Baghdad
Today, Thursday, economic researcher Manar Al-Obaidi reviewed the political, international and economic effects in the event of a change in the dollar exchange rate, while
indicating that all these indicators oppose manipulating the price of the dollar again, in exchange for public pressure that wants to restore the old price, which may make the next government in puzzled.
Al-Obaidi said in a clarification that I saw (Baghdad Today), that
“with the political changes, the theory of restoring the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar came to mind, and is there a possibility of restoring the exchange rate ,” noting that
“economically, any process of a quick change of the exchange rate will lead to weak confidence in the economy.”
And the rise in oil prices cannot be considered a permanent factor on which economic foundations can be built.
The rise in oil prices came as a result of a conflict between one of the major producing countries and the OPEC Plus agreements that limited the increase in demand over supply. He added:
"However, this rise has been warned by international bodies, including the World Bank, that there is a forthcoming inflation crisis and global economic stagnation that could lead to a significant decline in demand for oil, which may lead to a reduction in the price and therefore it is not possible to rely on high oil revenues to build a policy. long-term cash.
In addition, Al-Obaidi clarifies a very important factor, which is
"the continuation of the operational consumption pattern of the budget and the rise in the salary bill was one of the main reasons that led to the change of the exchange rate, and
any operation to restore the exchange rate in return for the continued rise in the government salary bill and operational expenses will lead to the disruption of the Iraqi economy and return to square
It is not possible to adopt the theory of changing the exchange rate now or in the future unless the issue of the salary bill is resolved and the productivity of the public sector is increased in a way through which it can finance part of its expenditures without the need for total dependence on oil.”
As for politically , Al-Obaidi explains that
“as a result of the political conflicts that have passed and as a result of the issuance of a certain political party on the entire political scene, this party may try to achieve a quick economic victory to strengthen its pillars at the expense of the other political party, regardless of its economic results.
Therefore, these parties may work by passing a process of change exchange rate regardless of its current and future economic impact.”
On the international level , Al-Obaidi indicates that
“all international financial bodies will not support the process of changing the exchange rate and may lead to the lifting of the support of some international bodies provided to Iraq, which no political party would like,
which also does not want to send a picture to those parties that it does not She understands a lot about monetary policy and works against the recommendations of international financial bodies, as international relations are important for these political bodies.
As for the public,
“despite the fact that the issue of raising the price of the dinar against the dollar is a popular demand as a result of its connection to the rise in inflation rates, although the price change was not the only factor in increasing inflation,
now the public will press strongly on the political parties that have long called for the necessity of raising the price of the dinar against the dollar.” dollar and return to the old price," says Al-Obaidi.
In light of the above data, Al-Obaidi concluded,
“It is not expected that the next government will make a radical change in the exchange rate, and
the most important factor in pressing for the return of the exchange rate will remain the public pressure that may be reflected on Parliament to work on changing the exchange rate, and
political parties may carry out long parliamentary maneuvers to prolong He extended the lack of change until the period before the next elections in order to count for it a great victory and use it as a successful electoral card through which it can win over the electoral public.
And he concluded:
"In the end, when monetary policy is linked to public policy and the parties compete without a fixed financial and economic vision agreed upon by all, the economy of Iraq will remain contingent on the parties' desire to win over the public, regardless of the economic effects of changing policies."
