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Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih *: The Oil Assets Course - The War Game.
06/04/20230
What (OPEC +) decided to cut the voluntary production of the member countries throughout the year 2023 by about 1.5 million barrels per day and with different shares for the member countries (as Iraq was among the OPEC countries by reducing 220 thousand barrels per day) undoubtedly comes as a result of the fluctuations in the geopolitical situation and its direct and indirect effects on the battlefields in Ukraine and in two directions,
First: Russia, which is the second largest oil producer in the world after the United States (both of which currently account for 25% of global production of crude oil), are in great contradiction, as
NATO decided earlier that Russian oil should not be sold with a ceiling of more than 60%. Dollars per barrel, which made Russia commit to reducing production also in (OPEC +) in order for the global price to rise and cover the loss of its revenues from selling its oil to China, India and Central Asian countries at prices that are still about $20 less than the global average of world oil prices.
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Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih - Oil Assets Course - War Game
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Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih *: The Oil Assets Course - The War Game.
~~~~~
[Partial and incomplete translation of
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] – ]
Papers in oil policies
Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih: * The Oil Assets Course - The War Game.
1- The decision taken by (OPEC +) to reduce the voluntary production of the member countries throughout the year 2023 by about 1.5 million barrels per day and with different shares for the member countries (as Iraq was among the OPEC countries by reducing 220 thousand barrels per day) undoubtedly comes as a result of the fluctuations in the situation Geopolitics and its direct and indirect effects on the battlefields in Ukraine and in two directions,
First: Russia, which is the second largest oil producer in the world after the United States (both of which currently possess 25% of global production of crude oil), are in great contradiction, as NATO decided earlier that Russian oil should not be sold with a ceiling of more than 60%. Dollars per barrel, which made Russia commit to reducing production also in (OPEC) + in order for the global price to rise and cover the loss of its revenues from selling its oil to China, India and Central Asian countries at prices that are still about $20 less than the global average of world oil prices.
The second is that the shortage of inventories in the United States, and the announcement of their imminent depletion, makes it preserve energy security in the United States in an accelerated manner, by providing maximum production capacities that compensate either for the lack of supplies or for compensating for the oil embargo on Russia and achieving an average American daily production of about 17 percent. million barrels of its high-cost shale oil
. Selling US crude oil at less than $75 per barrel constitutes a loss and a significant decline in production, which threatens the economic interests of the United States.
Therefore, in view of the contradiction in the rules of the game of oil production between Russia and the United States and the voluntary reduction of OPEC production, as we mentioned, the predictions of (OPEC) + may be believed that the average oil prices in the year 2023 may not be less than 80 dollars per barrel.
The decision of (OPEC) + came in line with the geopolitics of controlling energy flows in the world, which is dominated by preparations for the ongoing field war between East and West.
Petroleum papers
2- In addition to the foregoing, the Rystad Energy Energy Consultative Company expects that the continuation of the voluntary reduction by Iraq, Russia and the Gulf countries in oil production, at least one million barrels per day, will pay crude oil prices this summer to 110 dollars per barrel at the very least. It is expected that the sharp rise in energy/ oil prices will increase the inflationary pressure on the global economy and will push central banks to tighten monetary policies more.
3- In conclusion, the matter was attached to the virtual price to calculate the oil revenues in the federal general budget project in Iraq, which is 70 dollars per barrel, so the expectation of the annual average prices of crude oil is between 90-80 dollars per barrel in the year 2023, may be a doubt about the virtual deficit gap In the estimated budget of about 63 trillion dinars, according to the following two assumptions:
A-The use of financial savings accumulated for the year 2022, which may be estimated between 25-23 trillion dinars in reducing the deficit.
B-compensation for the decrease in Iraq’s share of 220 thousand barrels of oil per day of production comes through the crude oil lost in the internal liquidation operations, in order to maintain the maximum return on the public budget with the least of the planned deficit.
**(Academic researcher and economic writer. Financial advisor to the Prime Minister in Iraq
06/04/20230
What (OPEC +) decided to cut the voluntary production of the member countries throughout the year 2023 by about 1.5 million barrels per day and with different shares for the member countries (as Iraq was among the OPEC countries by reducing 220 thousand barrels per day) undoubtedly comes as a result of the fluctuations in the geopolitical situation and its direct and indirect effects on the battlefields in Ukraine and in two directions,
First: Russia, which is the second largest oil producer in the world after the United States (both of which currently account for 25% of global production of crude oil), are in great contradiction, as
NATO decided earlier that Russian oil should not be sold with a ceiling of more than 60%. Dollars per barrel, which made Russia commit to reducing production also in (OPEC +) in order for the global price to rise and cover the loss of its revenues from selling its oil to China, India and Central Asian countries at prices that are still about $20 less than the global average of world oil prices.
To continue reading, click on the following link
Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih - Oil Assets Course - War Game
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Appearance-Mohamed-Saleh-the-cycle-of-oil-assets-the-war-game
Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih *: The Oil Assets Course - The War Game.
~~~~~
[Partial and incomplete translation of
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] – ]
Papers in oil policies
Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih: * The Oil Assets Course - The War Game.
1- The decision taken by (OPEC +) to reduce the voluntary production of the member countries throughout the year 2023 by about 1.5 million barrels per day and with different shares for the member countries (as Iraq was among the OPEC countries by reducing 220 thousand barrels per day) undoubtedly comes as a result of the fluctuations in the situation Geopolitics and its direct and indirect effects on the battlefields in Ukraine and in two directions,
First: Russia, which is the second largest oil producer in the world after the United States (both of which currently possess 25% of global production of crude oil), are in great contradiction, as NATO decided earlier that Russian oil should not be sold with a ceiling of more than 60%. Dollars per barrel, which made Russia commit to reducing production also in (OPEC) + in order for the global price to rise and cover the loss of its revenues from selling its oil to China, India and Central Asian countries at prices that are still about $20 less than the global average of world oil prices.
The second is that the shortage of inventories in the United States, and the announcement of their imminent depletion, makes it preserve energy security in the United States in an accelerated manner, by providing maximum production capacities that compensate either for the lack of supplies or for compensating for the oil embargo on Russia and achieving an average American daily production of about 17 percent. million barrels of its high-cost shale oil
. Selling US crude oil at less than $75 per barrel constitutes a loss and a significant decline in production, which threatens the economic interests of the United States.
Therefore, in view of the contradiction in the rules of the game of oil production between Russia and the United States and the voluntary reduction of OPEC production, as we mentioned, the predictions of (OPEC) + may be believed that the average oil prices in the year 2023 may not be less than 80 dollars per barrel.
The decision of (OPEC) + came in line with the geopolitics of controlling energy flows in the world, which is dominated by preparations for the ongoing field war between East and West.
Petroleum papers
2- In addition to the foregoing, the Rystad Energy Energy Consultative Company expects that the continuation of the voluntary reduction by Iraq, Russia and the Gulf countries in oil production, at least one million barrels per day, will pay crude oil prices this summer to 110 dollars per barrel at the very least. It is expected that the sharp rise in energy/ oil prices will increase the inflationary pressure on the global economy and will push central banks to tighten monetary policies more.
3- In conclusion, the matter was attached to the virtual price to calculate the oil revenues in the federal general budget project in Iraq, which is 70 dollars per barrel, so the expectation of the annual average prices of crude oil is between 90-80 dollars per barrel in the year 2023, may be a doubt about the virtual deficit gap In the estimated budget of about 63 trillion dinars, according to the following two assumptions:
A-The use of financial savings accumulated for the year 2022, which may be estimated between 25-23 trillion dinars in reducing the deficit.
B-compensation for the decrease in Iraq’s share of 220 thousand barrels of oil per day of production comes through the crude oil lost in the internal liquidation operations, in order to maintain the maximum return on the public budget with the least of the planned deficit.
**(Academic researcher and economic writer. Financial advisor to the Prime Minister in Iraq
