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Iraq and the "Gulf Cooperation Council: Facts and Figures for oil and geopolitical challenges 2-2
Posted 21/02/2012 12:36 PM
Manama (Bahrain) - flame Atta Abdul Wahab
Yesterday, we published a study of the first part of the Iraqi researcher specialized oil and energy economics, and today we publish the second part and the last.
Axis III: Dimensions geopolitical and international spring Arab
Perhaps the most possible outcome "for the spring of the Arab" for the Gulf Cooperation Council is to re-positioning, so to speak in the global economy, which has become inclined towards the east significantly as evidenced by the relationship widening with both China and India In addition to Russia. Although the United States is still the main supporter and strategic direction of the GCC states, including ensuring the flow of safe supplies from the Gulf states, but there is a shift towards the East economically and commercially expressed in the significant expansion in energy projects, both on the investments of the GCC countries to build several refineries in China and India and South Korea, offset by the expansion projects in the petrochemical and refining industries undertaken by several Asian companies in the Gulf region. The historic visit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of both China and India in late January 2006, which resulted in the signing of multiple, including the protocol energy to promote trade between the two countries, evidence of the importance attached by the Kingdom to develop its relations with China. Has followed the visit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques to visit them less importance to the Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in May / May of 2009, especially since Kuwait is one of the leading investors in the projects, the refining industry in China.
The importance of the geopolitical to the Middle East is not the subject of controversy because of its reserves of large firm of natural resources, particularly crude oil and natural gas, but there are some studies that have been stressing that the flame of sparkle to the Middle East as a major player on the stage of World Energy, will take in the "decline" phase through the next two decades, to calculate the countries in West Africa, Asia and South America, which has reserves large in its waters deep, which became accessible thanks to modern techniques used reality as engineers, for example, drilling in depths of up to more than 3000 feet off the coast of Brazil in the Atlantic Ocean.
Theme IV: Hidden secret oil
Oil is not always an impediment to access and democracy. And until the early seventies of the last century, the oil-producing countries were less fortunate to reach democracy, like other developing countries. This was due, that even that period, the so-called "seven sisters", a giant oil companies that were to dominate the oil industry for the period from the mid-forties until the early seventies of the last century, and reap the lion's share of revenue.
This group has included the following companies:
1. Standard Oil of New Jersey.
2. Standard Oil Company of New York (now ExxonMobil).
three. Standard Oil of California.
four. Gulf Oil
five. Texaco (now Chevron).
six. Royal Dutch Shell.
seven. Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP).
Even in 1973, the seven sisters had controlled more than 85% of global proven oil reserves. That the dominance of large foreign companies on the campus of the oil market, oil-producing countries to benefit from the returns, they did not enter the government budget, but very little. However, this situation began to change radically in the early seventies of the last century for the convergence of a number of reasons, including: (1) The absolute control "of the Sisters of the seven" on the oil industry began declining with the advent of oil companies, independent companies such as Getty Oil Co., the Italian government ENI.
Site of international oil companies for oil companies, national
Recently announced quarterly earnings for some companies the world's oil giant Supermajors The announced BP for quarterly profit for the year 2011, amounting to about $ 5 billion, and reported that both Shell and Exxon Mobil quarterly profit amounted to $ 7 billion and 10 billion respectively. This comes as a natural result of what oil prices witnessed in the global market of unprecedented rises, as Hafiz London Brent crude benchmark on average more than $ 100 a barrel for most months of the year.
However, these profits astronomical must be viewed from another perspective, as the international oil companies, which were dominated by the oil industry as a whole because of its high technology, and large amounts of capital and management capacity developed, which was lacking in the oil-producing countries. This photo was taken the progressive change with the creation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the early sixties of the last century. A period which saw the launch of a powerful national oil companies (government) at the expense of international oil companies (private). The figure shows the above Satwa large national oil companies in the oil industry the world as it occupies all of the National Iranian Oil Company and Saudi Aramco has taken the lead in terms of oil and gas reserves confirmed that over 300 billion barrels of oil equivalent, while the giant companies as Exxon Mobil , which is the world's largest of the companies listed on stock exchanges by market capitalization market capitalization, estimated at more than $ 380 billion at the end of 2010, occupies not only the largest of the 11 standard is owned by the reserves, as shown in Fig. While each of the two occupies Doich Royal British Shell and BP ranked well for 19 20, respectively.
However, this characterization of the international oil companies is not that degree of "melancholy" as they are still national oil companies in need of technological expertise, as reflected in the contracts given to it by oil companies and large national companies such as Kuwait Oil Company and Petroleum Abu Dhabi National (ADNOC). The Brazilian national oil company, Petropars, although Maatmlleke of accumulated experience, but it is inevitable to use Atjd Baltqana developed for these companies to extract oil from deep waters.
(2) the announcement of the formation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad in September of 9601 strengthened the position of the oil-producing countries, especially in their bargaining power against foreign oil companies that were operating in accordance with the franchise system.
(3) Declaration of the Arab oil embargo during the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that led to the so-called "oil boom", where the rising oil prices of $ 2.50 per barrel in 1972 to about $ 12 a barrel in 1974. To take advantage of the surge in prices, most oil-producing countries began to "nationalize" foreign oil companies operating in their territory to be replaced by national oil companies which Okhaddt it upon themselves to manage the oil industry.
Axis V: failure of successive American administrations to reduce dependence on imported oil
What has been the successive American administrations starting from the Nixon administration and through the administration of President Carter and ending managing Obama's current announcement of the near end U.S. dependence on imported oil, especially oil Arab Gulf, as previously President Nixon declared in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo that The United States will become self-sufficient, starting in 1980. However, the historical record to the contrary, rising U.S. imports from 3.2 million barrels per day in 1973 to 5.3 million barrels per day in 1980.
1. Bush and mirage dispense with the Arab oil
filled energy is of significant interest to the administration of George Bush Jr., is not surprising in that, especially since President Bush like George HW Bush enjoyed a close relationship with the oil cartels in the state of Texas, the hometown of the president. It is no coincidence that occupy the Middle East oil a large portion of Bush's speech about » State of the Union« The State of The Union for the years 2006 and 2007 respectively, especially after the events of atheist th of September / September, and the subsequent implications . The Bush stressed that the United States became » addict« on oil, which came from unstable parts of the world , called to dispense with 75 in percent of its oil imports from the Middle East ( or equivalent 1.500 million barrels per day) by 2025 by employing technology to develop alternatives for clean energy and cheap reliable, as President Bush announced the determination of his administration to work on reducing the consumption of gasoline ( gasoline) the equivalent of three quarters of imports U.S. oil from the Middle East, 20 any in the percent of U.S. consumption by the year
it called the U.S. president to work on legislation needed to ensure the application of his plan relies heavily on increasing the supply of renewable and alternative fuels, especially ethanol from corn to 35 billion barrels by the year 2017, compared to 7 billion barrels currently. It also counts the plan to reduce gasoline consumption, including up to 8.5 billion gallons per year) or equivalent 200 million barrels (by reducing fuel consumption of cars for which set by Congress with 27.5 miles per gallon
2. Obama's current management
Since the election of Barack Obama as U.S. president in 2009 and he does not spare no effort in the search for measures to reduce U.S. dependence on imports from abroad through the implementation of a package of measures to limit imports about a third of its current level by 2025, including: • encourage local production through opened for prospecting and exploration in areas that had been banned in the past, especially in deep waters off the coast of the Atlantic Ocean and adjacent areas of Alaska. • encourage the use of biofuels, especially ethanol made from corn and soybeans as a substitute for gasoline in the auto industry. • increase the efficiency of vehicles to reach 39 miles / gallon by next decade. • encourage automakers to produce hybrid vehicles, including vehicles that run on electricity so that up to one million cars by 2015.
3. Inevitable dependence on oil from the Middle East
that seek United States to reduce its dependence on Middle East oil limited by several considerations, especially if we know that prospective studies of U.S. trade of oil) net imports ( will reach to about 70 in cent of the total consumption in 2025, despite the efforts being made to reduce its dependence on the outside of them 5.8 million barrels a day, or equivalent 27,1 percent in imports from the Gulf states. Add Furthermore, the proven oil reserves in countries in the Middle East, amounting to 754 billion barrels, equivalent to 57% of the world's proven reserves, and with its cost of production reduced, let alone the safety of geologic formation of their lands, and the lack of deep wells, Most production of the region flows in the self-propelled while 90 percent in the wells of the United States and 60 percent of the wells are pumping industrial Venezuela, what means that the cost of investment in the region less fields and produced a higher What makes oil more attractive to invest in it. These factors addition to geopolitical considerations, where is the many countries of the region, a strategic ally and close to the United States, will make the countries of the Middle East, the main player to meet the requirements of energy for many decades
Theme VI: Iranian threats to close "the Strait of Hormuz" ... Between truth and reality
The announcement states of the European Union at the end of January 2012 to impose new economic sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program controversial, including the prohibition of imports Iranian oil, raised the Iranian reaction angry threat to respond to these penalties to close the Strait of Hormuz is vital to international navigation, a threat in if implemented, will have repercussions and consequences as it would mean depriving the world of 17 million barrels per day of crude oil that pass through it on the back of supertankers, not to mention the severe damage that will befall exports Gulf, through which more than 80% of Gulf oil, and the implementation of the closure amounts to a declaration of war on the world in accordance with international law.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
1. The general features
is the Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, which connects the Persian Gulf Arabian Sea, one of the most important waterways strategy in the world, and the width of the strait 60 kilometers crossed by daily tanker oil giant that weigh more than 150 thousand tons, and that arrive in peak hours to one tanker every 6 minutes on an average of 30 tankers. The latest available data to flow more than 17 million barrels per day across the Straits at the end of 2011 compared to 15.5 million barrels per day to 16 million barrels per day for the years 2009 and 2010.
Map No. (1) Strait of Hormuz: a strategic waterway for oil transportation.
The volume of oil through the Strait in 2011 is equivalent to approximately 35% of the marine oil trade, which is also equivalent to 20% of the total trade of petroleum in the world. The continent of Asia, the geographical destination of the main oil transit through the Strait as it accounted for more than 85% of oil exports, which had the lion's share of the oil markets in Japan, China, India and South Korea.
2 - closure of the Straits and the alternatives available
map number (2)
There are fears that Iran close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, which made the countries of Persian Gulf oil exporters are seriously considering the use of pipelines as an alternative.
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:
that a free alternative in the event of closure of the Straits is a line Petroline also known as a network of pipes the Middle West , and a length of 757 miles and connecting the Abqaiq in the east port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a capacity of 5 million barrels a day.
United Arab Emirates announced in the UAE for near run a pipeline to transport the UAE's oil fields Habshan in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, located to the west of the Gulf, to the port Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman in the east without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is hoped to start work in the tube in the months of May or June and the next card up to 1.4 million barrels a day, can be increased to 1.8 million barrels per day maximum, which will allow export of 70% of the production of oil through the Fujairah UAE without passing the Strait of Hormuz risky.
Iraq:
Iraq will bear the brunt of significantly closing the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, especially since more than 90% of its oil exports are through the Persian Gulf. In contrast, exports from the ports north (Kirkuk) through the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean do not represent only 10% of the total oil exports.
and there are attempts to revive the number of lines broken from the line of Banias on the Mediterranean coast, but that seen in Syria today unrest turning without realizing it at the moment.
and the revival of the line extended to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and the capacity of up to 1.65 million barrels per day and has been closed since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, is also out of reach now what is going on relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia from cooling too .
and uses Iraq to a limited extent his fleet of tankers to transport oil to Jordan, which can increase its numbers as one of the available alternatives in the event of closure of the Straits to international navigation.
oil pipeline Gulf to the ports of Yemen: re-Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, returned to the forefront of a new idea pipeline oil from Saudi territory and the Gulf states to the ports of Yemen in the south to secure the Gulf's oil exports. The proposed project aims at building a pipeline for a distance of between 350 and 400 km in the Empty Quarter in southern Saudi Arabia to the port of Mukalla in Hadramout governorate.
Iran and brinkmanship
that Maishdh the world today of polarization between the poles of molar Iran and Western powers (the forces of global arrogance) us back in memory to "brinkmanship" Policy of brinkmanship that prevailed in the sixties of the last century, during the missile crisis in Cuba, while the leader of the Communist Party Khrushchev (in the fall of 1962) on the deployment of nuclear missiles off the coast of Florida, Mahadda U.S. President (John F. Kennedy) to issue a strongly worded statement eventually led to defuse the crisis after the world held its breath for days for fear of outbreak of nuclear war comes to everything and everybody.
The Iranian threat to close the strait seen some observers as not prepare for "fanfare" Sabre Rattling intended to win the support of the Iranian masses to the government of President Ahmadinejad, especially if the legislative elections (the Board) has become the corner (March / March next).
In practice , the Iran has the military capability to create a great deal of turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and in the short term through the recruitment and use of frigates and Alzorac military small high-speed and equipped with missiles in addition to its ability to mine the passages which impedes the flow smooth to passing ships, bringing back to mind the "war carriers, "which broke out in the mid-eighties of the last century at the height of the Iraq war - Iran. However, Iran's ability to close the Strait of long periods of time will not be successful for several reasons, despite the possession of three Russian submarines, including the heavy presence of the Armada the U.S. in the Gulf as it takes the U.S. Fifth Fleet is known as the Bahrain-based, not to mention the military bases support the region's air base in Qatar Aideed (the headquarters of Central Command of the U.S. CENTCOM).
to, the closure of the Straits would raise the ire of Iran's allies, particularly China, Asian permanent member of the Security Council, which rely heavily on Iranian oil imports. Worse of all, will result in closure of the Straits to deprive Iran from exporting its oil to the outside as well as to deprive it of its imports strategy, particularly its imports of food and capital goods.
concluding remarks
with tougher European Union from its economic sanctions on Iran to affect the import of crude oil and petrochemical products, the I hope Traua Iran in its confrontation with major powers, including the response to the wishes of the inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency IEA with Iran's insistence that its nuclear program is geared entirely for peaceful purposes, what will Iran to look for alternatives other geographical, noting that Iran's exports to Europe to not more than 450 thousand barrels per day or equivalent to slightly less than 20% of total exports, a quantity that can be compensated by giving price discounts to new potential customers, knowing that the European oil embargo would not enter into force before the month of July next. And the destination's natural alternative to the European is a continent of Asia, which is witnessing a steady growth in consumption of oil, and class basis to China and India, to a lesser extent toward South Korea and Japan (without losing sight of that practiced by the U.S. administration pressure to bend the two countries stop buying Iranian oil.)
and excludes many specialists in military affairs and strategy that Iran turned to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered a "declaration of suicidal" for the Islamic Republic of Iran in contrast to the claim of military leaders that it would be "easier to drink a glass of water!"
and waiting to settle things peacefully, including a face-saving for all parties concerned , with the increasing momentum of the remarkable activity of diplomacy adopted by the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany (Group 5 +1), the factor of uncertainty will remain the dominant factor in oil markets Masadf prices (Brent blend crude reference), which currently range between 100 to $ 110 a barrel, it will pay for the increase towards the top for fear of supply disruptions, which will negatively impact on global economic growth, the main driver of demand for oil, just outside of Khanfah crisis recession.
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Posted 21/02/2012 12:36 PM
Manama (Bahrain) - flame Atta Abdul Wahab
Yesterday, we published a study of the first part of the Iraqi researcher specialized oil and energy economics, and today we publish the second part and the last.
Axis III: Dimensions geopolitical and international spring Arab
Perhaps the most possible outcome "for the spring of the Arab" for the Gulf Cooperation Council is to re-positioning, so to speak in the global economy, which has become inclined towards the east significantly as evidenced by the relationship widening with both China and India In addition to Russia. Although the United States is still the main supporter and strategic direction of the GCC states, including ensuring the flow of safe supplies from the Gulf states, but there is a shift towards the East economically and commercially expressed in the significant expansion in energy projects, both on the investments of the GCC countries to build several refineries in China and India and South Korea, offset by the expansion projects in the petrochemical and refining industries undertaken by several Asian companies in the Gulf region. The historic visit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of both China and India in late January 2006, which resulted in the signing of multiple, including the protocol energy to promote trade between the two countries, evidence of the importance attached by the Kingdom to develop its relations with China. Has followed the visit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques to visit them less importance to the Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in May / May of 2009, especially since Kuwait is one of the leading investors in the projects, the refining industry in China.
The importance of the geopolitical to the Middle East is not the subject of controversy because of its reserves of large firm of natural resources, particularly crude oil and natural gas, but there are some studies that have been stressing that the flame of sparkle to the Middle East as a major player on the stage of World Energy, will take in the "decline" phase through the next two decades, to calculate the countries in West Africa, Asia and South America, which has reserves large in its waters deep, which became accessible thanks to modern techniques used reality as engineers, for example, drilling in depths of up to more than 3000 feet off the coast of Brazil in the Atlantic Ocean.
Theme IV: Hidden secret oil
Oil is not always an impediment to access and democracy. And until the early seventies of the last century, the oil-producing countries were less fortunate to reach democracy, like other developing countries. This was due, that even that period, the so-called "seven sisters", a giant oil companies that were to dominate the oil industry for the period from the mid-forties until the early seventies of the last century, and reap the lion's share of revenue.
This group has included the following companies:
1. Standard Oil of New Jersey.
2. Standard Oil Company of New York (now ExxonMobil).
three. Standard Oil of California.
four. Gulf Oil
five. Texaco (now Chevron).
six. Royal Dutch Shell.
seven. Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP).
Even in 1973, the seven sisters had controlled more than 85% of global proven oil reserves. That the dominance of large foreign companies on the campus of the oil market, oil-producing countries to benefit from the returns, they did not enter the government budget, but very little. However, this situation began to change radically in the early seventies of the last century for the convergence of a number of reasons, including: (1) The absolute control "of the Sisters of the seven" on the oil industry began declining with the advent of oil companies, independent companies such as Getty Oil Co., the Italian government ENI.
Site of international oil companies for oil companies, national
Recently announced quarterly earnings for some companies the world's oil giant Supermajors The announced BP for quarterly profit for the year 2011, amounting to about $ 5 billion, and reported that both Shell and Exxon Mobil quarterly profit amounted to $ 7 billion and 10 billion respectively. This comes as a natural result of what oil prices witnessed in the global market of unprecedented rises, as Hafiz London Brent crude benchmark on average more than $ 100 a barrel for most months of the year.
However, these profits astronomical must be viewed from another perspective, as the international oil companies, which were dominated by the oil industry as a whole because of its high technology, and large amounts of capital and management capacity developed, which was lacking in the oil-producing countries. This photo was taken the progressive change with the creation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the early sixties of the last century. A period which saw the launch of a powerful national oil companies (government) at the expense of international oil companies (private). The figure shows the above Satwa large national oil companies in the oil industry the world as it occupies all of the National Iranian Oil Company and Saudi Aramco has taken the lead in terms of oil and gas reserves confirmed that over 300 billion barrels of oil equivalent, while the giant companies as Exxon Mobil , which is the world's largest of the companies listed on stock exchanges by market capitalization market capitalization, estimated at more than $ 380 billion at the end of 2010, occupies not only the largest of the 11 standard is owned by the reserves, as shown in Fig. While each of the two occupies Doich Royal British Shell and BP ranked well for 19 20, respectively.
However, this characterization of the international oil companies is not that degree of "melancholy" as they are still national oil companies in need of technological expertise, as reflected in the contracts given to it by oil companies and large national companies such as Kuwait Oil Company and Petroleum Abu Dhabi National (ADNOC). The Brazilian national oil company, Petropars, although Maatmlleke of accumulated experience, but it is inevitable to use Atjd Baltqana developed for these companies to extract oil from deep waters.
(2) the announcement of the formation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad in September of 9601 strengthened the position of the oil-producing countries, especially in their bargaining power against foreign oil companies that were operating in accordance with the franchise system.
(3) Declaration of the Arab oil embargo during the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that led to the so-called "oil boom", where the rising oil prices of $ 2.50 per barrel in 1972 to about $ 12 a barrel in 1974. To take advantage of the surge in prices, most oil-producing countries began to "nationalize" foreign oil companies operating in their territory to be replaced by national oil companies which Okhaddt it upon themselves to manage the oil industry.
Axis V: failure of successive American administrations to reduce dependence on imported oil
What has been the successive American administrations starting from the Nixon administration and through the administration of President Carter and ending managing Obama's current announcement of the near end U.S. dependence on imported oil, especially oil Arab Gulf, as previously President Nixon declared in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo that The United States will become self-sufficient, starting in 1980. However, the historical record to the contrary, rising U.S. imports from 3.2 million barrels per day in 1973 to 5.3 million barrels per day in 1980.
1. Bush and mirage dispense with the Arab oil
filled energy is of significant interest to the administration of George Bush Jr., is not surprising in that, especially since President Bush like George HW Bush enjoyed a close relationship with the oil cartels in the state of Texas, the hometown of the president. It is no coincidence that occupy the Middle East oil a large portion of Bush's speech about » State of the Union« The State of The Union for the years 2006 and 2007 respectively, especially after the events of atheist th of September / September, and the subsequent implications . The Bush stressed that the United States became » addict« on oil, which came from unstable parts of the world , called to dispense with 75 in percent of its oil imports from the Middle East ( or equivalent 1.500 million barrels per day) by 2025 by employing technology to develop alternatives for clean energy and cheap reliable, as President Bush announced the determination of his administration to work on reducing the consumption of gasoline ( gasoline) the equivalent of three quarters of imports U.S. oil from the Middle East, 20 any in the percent of U.S. consumption by the year
it called the U.S. president to work on legislation needed to ensure the application of his plan relies heavily on increasing the supply of renewable and alternative fuels, especially ethanol from corn to 35 billion barrels by the year 2017, compared to 7 billion barrels currently. It also counts the plan to reduce gasoline consumption, including up to 8.5 billion gallons per year) or equivalent 200 million barrels (by reducing fuel consumption of cars for which set by Congress with 27.5 miles per gallon
2. Obama's current management
Since the election of Barack Obama as U.S. president in 2009 and he does not spare no effort in the search for measures to reduce U.S. dependence on imports from abroad through the implementation of a package of measures to limit imports about a third of its current level by 2025, including: • encourage local production through opened for prospecting and exploration in areas that had been banned in the past, especially in deep waters off the coast of the Atlantic Ocean and adjacent areas of Alaska. • encourage the use of biofuels, especially ethanol made from corn and soybeans as a substitute for gasoline in the auto industry. • increase the efficiency of vehicles to reach 39 miles / gallon by next decade. • encourage automakers to produce hybrid vehicles, including vehicles that run on electricity so that up to one million cars by 2015.
3. Inevitable dependence on oil from the Middle East
that seek United States to reduce its dependence on Middle East oil limited by several considerations, especially if we know that prospective studies of U.S. trade of oil) net imports ( will reach to about 70 in cent of the total consumption in 2025, despite the efforts being made to reduce its dependence on the outside of them 5.8 million barrels a day, or equivalent 27,1 percent in imports from the Gulf states. Add Furthermore, the proven oil reserves in countries in the Middle East, amounting to 754 billion barrels, equivalent to 57% of the world's proven reserves, and with its cost of production reduced, let alone the safety of geologic formation of their lands, and the lack of deep wells, Most production of the region flows in the self-propelled while 90 percent in the wells of the United States and 60 percent of the wells are pumping industrial Venezuela, what means that the cost of investment in the region less fields and produced a higher What makes oil more attractive to invest in it. These factors addition to geopolitical considerations, where is the many countries of the region, a strategic ally and close to the United States, will make the countries of the Middle East, the main player to meet the requirements of energy for many decades
Theme VI: Iranian threats to close "the Strait of Hormuz" ... Between truth and reality
The announcement states of the European Union at the end of January 2012 to impose new economic sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program controversial, including the prohibition of imports Iranian oil, raised the Iranian reaction angry threat to respond to these penalties to close the Strait of Hormuz is vital to international navigation, a threat in if implemented, will have repercussions and consequences as it would mean depriving the world of 17 million barrels per day of crude oil that pass through it on the back of supertankers, not to mention the severe damage that will befall exports Gulf, through which more than 80% of Gulf oil, and the implementation of the closure amounts to a declaration of war on the world in accordance with international law.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
1. The general features
is the Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, which connects the Persian Gulf Arabian Sea, one of the most important waterways strategy in the world, and the width of the strait 60 kilometers crossed by daily tanker oil giant that weigh more than 150 thousand tons, and that arrive in peak hours to one tanker every 6 minutes on an average of 30 tankers. The latest available data to flow more than 17 million barrels per day across the Straits at the end of 2011 compared to 15.5 million barrels per day to 16 million barrels per day for the years 2009 and 2010.
Map No. (1) Strait of Hormuz: a strategic waterway for oil transportation.
The volume of oil through the Strait in 2011 is equivalent to approximately 35% of the marine oil trade, which is also equivalent to 20% of the total trade of petroleum in the world. The continent of Asia, the geographical destination of the main oil transit through the Strait as it accounted for more than 85% of oil exports, which had the lion's share of the oil markets in Japan, China, India and South Korea.
2 - closure of the Straits and the alternatives available
map number (2)
There are fears that Iran close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, which made the countries of Persian Gulf oil exporters are seriously considering the use of pipelines as an alternative.
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:
that a free alternative in the event of closure of the Straits is a line Petroline also known as a network of pipes the Middle West , and a length of 757 miles and connecting the Abqaiq in the east port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a capacity of 5 million barrels a day.
United Arab Emirates announced in the UAE for near run a pipeline to transport the UAE's oil fields Habshan in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, located to the west of the Gulf, to the port Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman in the east without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is hoped to start work in the tube in the months of May or June and the next card up to 1.4 million barrels a day, can be increased to 1.8 million barrels per day maximum, which will allow export of 70% of the production of oil through the Fujairah UAE without passing the Strait of Hormuz risky.
Iraq:
Iraq will bear the brunt of significantly closing the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, especially since more than 90% of its oil exports are through the Persian Gulf. In contrast, exports from the ports north (Kirkuk) through the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean do not represent only 10% of the total oil exports.
and there are attempts to revive the number of lines broken from the line of Banias on the Mediterranean coast, but that seen in Syria today unrest turning without realizing it at the moment.
and the revival of the line extended to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and the capacity of up to 1.65 million barrels per day and has been closed since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, is also out of reach now what is going on relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia from cooling too .
and uses Iraq to a limited extent his fleet of tankers to transport oil to Jordan, which can increase its numbers as one of the available alternatives in the event of closure of the Straits to international navigation.
oil pipeline Gulf to the ports of Yemen: re-Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, returned to the forefront of a new idea pipeline oil from Saudi territory and the Gulf states to the ports of Yemen in the south to secure the Gulf's oil exports. The proposed project aims at building a pipeline for a distance of between 350 and 400 km in the Empty Quarter in southern Saudi Arabia to the port of Mukalla in Hadramout governorate.
Iran and brinkmanship
that Maishdh the world today of polarization between the poles of molar Iran and Western powers (the forces of global arrogance) us back in memory to "brinkmanship" Policy of brinkmanship that prevailed in the sixties of the last century, during the missile crisis in Cuba, while the leader of the Communist Party Khrushchev (in the fall of 1962) on the deployment of nuclear missiles off the coast of Florida, Mahadda U.S. President (John F. Kennedy) to issue a strongly worded statement eventually led to defuse the crisis after the world held its breath for days for fear of outbreak of nuclear war comes to everything and everybody.
The Iranian threat to close the strait seen some observers as not prepare for "fanfare" Sabre Rattling intended to win the support of the Iranian masses to the government of President Ahmadinejad, especially if the legislative elections (the Board) has become the corner (March / March next).
In practice , the Iran has the military capability to create a great deal of turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and in the short term through the recruitment and use of frigates and Alzorac military small high-speed and equipped with missiles in addition to its ability to mine the passages which impedes the flow smooth to passing ships, bringing back to mind the "war carriers, "which broke out in the mid-eighties of the last century at the height of the Iraq war - Iran. However, Iran's ability to close the Strait of long periods of time will not be successful for several reasons, despite the possession of three Russian submarines, including the heavy presence of the Armada the U.S. in the Gulf as it takes the U.S. Fifth Fleet is known as the Bahrain-based, not to mention the military bases support the region's air base in Qatar Aideed (the headquarters of Central Command of the U.S. CENTCOM).
to, the closure of the Straits would raise the ire of Iran's allies, particularly China, Asian permanent member of the Security Council, which rely heavily on Iranian oil imports. Worse of all, will result in closure of the Straits to deprive Iran from exporting its oil to the outside as well as to deprive it of its imports strategy, particularly its imports of food and capital goods.
concluding remarks
with tougher European Union from its economic sanctions on Iran to affect the import of crude oil and petrochemical products, the I hope Traua Iran in its confrontation with major powers, including the response to the wishes of the inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency IEA with Iran's insistence that its nuclear program is geared entirely for peaceful purposes, what will Iran to look for alternatives other geographical, noting that Iran's exports to Europe to not more than 450 thousand barrels per day or equivalent to slightly less than 20% of total exports, a quantity that can be compensated by giving price discounts to new potential customers, knowing that the European oil embargo would not enter into force before the month of July next. And the destination's natural alternative to the European is a continent of Asia, which is witnessing a steady growth in consumption of oil, and class basis to China and India, to a lesser extent toward South Korea and Japan (without losing sight of that practiced by the U.S. administration pressure to bend the two countries stop buying Iranian oil.)
and excludes many specialists in military affairs and strategy that Iran turned to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered a "declaration of suicidal" for the Islamic Republic of Iran in contrast to the claim of military leaders that it would be "easier to drink a glass of water!"
and waiting to settle things peacefully, including a face-saving for all parties concerned , with the increasing momentum of the remarkable activity of diplomacy adopted by the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany (Group 5 +1), the factor of uncertainty will remain the dominant factor in oil markets Masadf prices (Brent blend crude reference), which currently range between 100 to $ 110 a barrel, it will pay for the increase towards the top for fear of supply disruptions, which will negatively impact on global economic growth, the main driver of demand for oil, just outside of Khanfah crisis recession.
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