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Foreign Policy: Our Man in Baghdad, Maliki, but he threatens to "democracy"
5/12/12
Baghdad / Washington / Orr News
Drawing an American researcher who specializes in the Iraqi issue, multiple images of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, calling that has a remarkable ability to create enemies. James and demonstrates Turabo in Alforn Shi'ites complain to the health and described based on the analyzes of Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who believes that "the personal relations between Maliki and all awesome."
According Alforn Policy, has offered this talent is very clear in March, when the Arab summit conference in Baghdad. Although the event was the mean signal for the re-emergence of Iraq as saying after decades of tyranny and bloodshed, was rejected by the leaders of ten countries of the total 22, including virtually the Gulf states to attend, expressing their resentment of the anti-Maliki is noted for the year, whether within or outside of Iraq, Summit and turned to the rite boring. The only neighbor and friend who left for Iraq is Shi'ite Iran, which looks like it intends to reduce its neighbor to the client state.
While Iraq no longer poses a threat to its neighbors, as it was under Saddam Hussein's regime, has led the U.S. invasion of Iraq to transform the Middle East to the suffering, despite the human cost of that untold for Iraq and America. and see Turabo the hopes that the Bush administration was thinking in the once, after Saddam's Iraq, and led to the possibility of a secular symbol such as exhibitions, Ahmad Chalabi, Iraq would become unstable as a force loyal to the United States in the region, depicting absurd distinction. And confirms that it is not sufficient interest to the owners in order to be a friend of the United States, has allowed U.S. forces to leave for the owners to ignore all of that society.
And Obhsp Turabo, what looks like Iraq today, is an Iranian cat's paw. At a meeting of the Arab summit, close Iraqi diplomats any effort to decide strong action against Syria or even use the language of rough, which provided a boost to the agenda of Iran at the expense of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which a driver of armed fighters seeking to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Immediately after the summit meetings, al-Maliki went to Tehran to confer with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Most experts on Iraq, says Turabo, agree that al-Maliki is an Iraqi national writhing hands of the Iranians. And wonder: Where to find al-Maliki himself today and why?. Turabo believe that the most acceptable interpretation of the policy of foreign al-Maliki, is the so-called hypothesis (CUR), which was reinforced by Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Alterman argues that al-Maliki made enemies because he is following the national interests of Iraq, which is "not afraid to declare his hatred of people in the region." Alterman believes that Maliki actually pass the cautious path amid hostile and false friends.
And displays the Turabo Another theory, suggesting that the Maliki infected deeply paranoid, as one person other analysts who know him well and his circle, he is convinced that his rivals at home and abroad, they are not able to harm it. The American scholar and another point of view sees that "al-Maliki is a Shiite elements seen as the year of being enemies and may also be steeped in conspiracy theories", but can be a atheist for the motives of al-Maliki and still inferred that cause damage to the interests of Iraq itself. Would not want any Iraqi commander discreet adversarial with Turkey, as did al-Maliki. Going back to December, when he suggested that the Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan that there is no spark Maliki's war against the opponents of the Sunnis in Iraq, Maliki accused Turkey of being "involved are not justified in Iraq's internal affairs," adding that the same scale that Erdogan was seeking to re-dominate the Ottoman Turkish the region. And, in turn, has led to another round of escalation and exchange of accusations and mutual ambassadors call.
Iraq needs in fact to Turkey more than it needs to Iran. Turkey has twice the GDP of Iran, and the gap tends to increase rapidly with the continued expansion in Turkey and the continuation of Iran under Western sanctions. Turkey has sought to play the role of mediator between the components of Iraq, but al-Maliki insisted to see the neighbor as a Sunni seeking to bring the Sunnis, or Ottoman control over Iraq. And probably did not help the situation diplomats Turks in the 2010 elections, when rivals have supported al-Maliki, the Iraqi List, including the alleged promotion of Qatar to provide funding for that group of "Iraq" because they saw a mass non-sectarian alternative to the relatively State of Law coalition, led by al-Maliki. But the problem was a notable omission in the al-Maliki in a settlement with local rivals.
It is believed that the Turabo Iraqi internal tensions disturbing, and refrain Almenkadh Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds to accept the legitimacy of the aspirations of one another, stretching across the borders of Iraq and the worsening sectarian tensions that surround the province now. He cites the example of the issue of Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, questioning and evidence presented by the Maliki government.
The collapse of talks between Iraq and the Kurdish regional government, which is fighting for oil revenues and the border, also led to raise the temperature of the region. After Erdogan extended in 2007 to the Kurdish regional government, the Kurdish region have merged widely in the Turkish economy, and can serve as a model for the relations Turkish - Iraqi, but instead became something else interesting. The wounded Kurds frustrated by the lack of progress in the talks - and who are also officials by them are definite about it - has threatened to sell oil to Turkey without the consent of Baghdad and build a tube between the two regions. Turkey has become Alrhin in the conflict between Iraq and the Kurdish regional government.
Finally, the al-Maliki, his opponents severely marginalized the Sunnis, Shiites and also moderates such as former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who is president and founder of the Iraqi List, so that you can to Iran, which alone can eliminate between groups of Iraqi Shiites. It was Iran that ended a deadlock after the 2010 elections by insisting that the followers of Moqtada al-Sadr must accept Maliki as prime minister. And Maliki knows that he owes his job to Iran, and therefore, whenever faced with a problem, it is nothing more than to Tehran. And Iran's rivals in the Gulf looking at him this role of being an Iranian puppet, and inevitably even unfair.
And there is a picture and even more problematic than that. Vahaddy results for the disorder in the Arab countries during the last six months, he was in the escalation of sectarian differences to the surface, just as happened after the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As far as the continuation of the conflict in time, it is likely to deepen those divisions more.
And long-term U.S. interests in the Middle East are exactly the same to the Arab peoples: Replace the authoritarian regimes of distasteful regimes democratic, and the replacement of sectarian discourse letter non-sectarian - sectarian or less, and I imagined the Bush administration that Iraq will serve as a hub for regional transformation. Instead, it has become in a fragmented state-Maliki deeply superficial characteristics of democracy.
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