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Iraq’s insurgents are in the midst of their summer offensive. June 2012 saw a string of deadly attacks as a result. Despite all the press that generated, two out of three groups that recorded casualties in Iraq last month noted a decrease showing that there is not always a correlation between security incidents and fatalities. More importantly, recent events highlight the current deadlock in the country’s security situation. On the one hand, Al Qaeda in Iraq is trying to re-assert itself. On the other, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have returned to being a reactive, and often times repressive force. Neither side has the ability to win this struggle meaning that Iraq will continue to witness this level of violence.
The Iraqi government said June was the deadliest month in two years, but that’s only because it has been underreporting casualties in the country. Baghdad said 324 people died last month, up from 131 in June. July had the highest official death count since August 2010’s 426. That compared to 436 by Iraq Body Count for July, which was down from 472 seen the month before. The United Nations had no new figures available, because its security webpage is down. Agence France Presse however, had 278 killed in July, a decrease from 282 in June. During July, it seemed like those last two groups would have coincided with the government’s numbers, because of a series of attacks. First, On July 3, there was a truck bombing in Diwaniya, Qadisiyah province that killed 40. With the usual fare of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and shootings, Iraq Body Count recorded an additional 20 deaths, for a total of 60 in just one day. That was overshadowed by July 23, when insurgents carried out at least 37 separate incidents across Baghdad, Salahaddin, Diyala, Ninewa, and Tamim governorates, which cost the lives of 115 people. Despite those two deadly days, Iraq Body Count and Agence France Presse’s death counts went down. While they cannot fully capture all of the security incidents in Iraq they have proven to be more reliable than the government’s. Since the end of 2010, Baghdad’s casualty statistics have been far below any others. That coincided with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki putting together a new ruling coalition after parliamentary elections that made him the acting Defense, Interior, and National Security Ministers. Officials have likely been keeping down the figures since then to make it seem like the premier has been securing the country. June 2012 was the first time since October 2010 that the government’s numbers have been in line with independent groups, which was why they claimed it was the most fatal in two years.
Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012
Month
Iraq Body Count
Iraqi Ministries
United Nations
Avg. Monthly Deaths
Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2011
387
259
265
303
9.7
Feb.
250
167
267
228
8.1
Mar.
307
247
268
274
8.8
Apr.
285
211
279
258
8.6
May
378
177
319
291
9.3
Jun.
385
271
424
360
12.0
Jul.
305
259
381
315
10.1
Aug.
398
239
455
364
11.7
Sep.
394
185
405
328
10.9
Oct.
355
258
416
343
11.0
Nov.
272
187
264
241
8.0
Dec.
371
155
313
279
9.0
TOTALS
4,125
1,591
4,056
-
-
2011 Mo. Avg.
343
217
338
298
9.7
Jan. 2012
464
151
500
371
11.9
Feb.
293
150
254
232
8.0
Mar.
320
112
294
242
7.8
Apr.
309
126
320
251
8.3
May
220
132
332
228
7.3
Jun.
472
131
401
334
11.1
Jul.
436
325
N/A
380
12.2
The uptick by Iraq’s ministries accounted for the rise in monthly averages. In July, there was an average of 380 killed, up from June’s 334. Likewise, the number of daily deaths went from 11.1 in June to 12.2 in July. Again, those increases were due to Baghdad finally recording realistic figures.
Iraq’s on-going summer offensive is a sign of the stalemate between Iraq’s security forces and militants. First, Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is trying to regain its former position. In July, the emir of Al Qaeda’s umbrella organization the Islamic State of Iraq announced a new campaign called “Breaking The Walls.” He said that his forces would target the government, seek to rebuild its ties with tribes, and return to its former strongholds. The insurgency overall has gotten a boost in manpower with the withdrawal of American forces in December 2011. They released thousands of prisoners, many of which went back to being militants, because they were committed to the cause or could not find a normal life. At the same time, the Iraqi Security Forces have returned to their traditional culture. Rather than conducting counterinsurgency operations like they learned from the Americans, they are now more of a reactive force, carrying out mass arrests after attacks, and sometimes acting like armies of occupation in Sunni areas; tactics very much like those used in Saddam’s time. The on-going political crisis has also played its role as it has increased sectarian tensions and resentments, which militants have exploited for their own gain. All together, that means that the Iraqi army and police will be unable to prevent any major attacks even though they know the summer months bring them about. At the same time, Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups do not have ability to really challenge the government.
After the summer is over, attacks and deaths will go down in Iraq. The problem is that the routine will repeat itself next year, and the year after that until there is a change in the status quo. That will not come from the security forces that are set in their ways. Only the political class can bring about a real transformation. In 2009 and 2010, large numbers of Sunnis participated in elections after largely boycotting them in 2005. That led to a drop in casualties. Now, things are going in the other direction, as the ruling parties are moving farther and farther apart in their feud over the distribution of power, increasing ethnosectarian tensions. That growing resentment within the country, gives some the reason to fight rather than reconcile adding life to the insurgency. The problem for Iraq is that nothing looks to be changing the political deadlock, and in turn the security situation will not improve either.
*With an MA in International Relations, Joel Wing has been researching and writing about Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Guardian and the Washington Independent.
RY/AKnews
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The Iraqi government said June was the deadliest month in two years, but that’s only because it has been underreporting casualties in the country. Baghdad said 324 people died last month, up from 131 in June. July had the highest official death count since August 2010’s 426. That compared to 436 by Iraq Body Count for July, which was down from 472 seen the month before. The United Nations had no new figures available, because its security webpage is down. Agence France Presse however, had 278 killed in July, a decrease from 282 in June. During July, it seemed like those last two groups would have coincided with the government’s numbers, because of a series of attacks. First, On July 3, there was a truck bombing in Diwaniya, Qadisiyah province that killed 40. With the usual fare of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and shootings, Iraq Body Count recorded an additional 20 deaths, for a total of 60 in just one day. That was overshadowed by July 23, when insurgents carried out at least 37 separate incidents across Baghdad, Salahaddin, Diyala, Ninewa, and Tamim governorates, which cost the lives of 115 people. Despite those two deadly days, Iraq Body Count and Agence France Presse’s death counts went down. While they cannot fully capture all of the security incidents in Iraq they have proven to be more reliable than the government’s. Since the end of 2010, Baghdad’s casualty statistics have been far below any others. That coincided with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki putting together a new ruling coalition after parliamentary elections that made him the acting Defense, Interior, and National Security Ministers. Officials have likely been keeping down the figures since then to make it seem like the premier has been securing the country. June 2012 was the first time since October 2010 that the government’s numbers have been in line with independent groups, which was why they claimed it was the most fatal in two years.
Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012
Month
Iraq Body Count
Iraqi Ministries
United Nations
Avg. Monthly Deaths
Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2011
387
259
265
303
9.7
Feb.
250
167
267
228
8.1
Mar.
307
247
268
274
8.8
Apr.
285
211
279
258
8.6
May
378
177
319
291
9.3
Jun.
385
271
424
360
12.0
Jul.
305
259
381
315
10.1
Aug.
398
239
455
364
11.7
Sep.
394
185
405
328
10.9
Oct.
355
258
416
343
11.0
Nov.
272
187
264
241
8.0
Dec.
371
155
313
279
9.0
TOTALS
4,125
1,591
4,056
-
-
2011 Mo. Avg.
343
217
338
298
9.7
Jan. 2012
464
151
500
371
11.9
Feb.
293
150
254
232
8.0
Mar.
320
112
294
242
7.8
Apr.
309
126
320
251
8.3
May
220
132
332
228
7.3
Jun.
472
131
401
334
11.1
Jul.
436
325
N/A
380
12.2
The uptick by Iraq’s ministries accounted for the rise in monthly averages. In July, there was an average of 380 killed, up from June’s 334. Likewise, the number of daily deaths went from 11.1 in June to 12.2 in July. Again, those increases were due to Baghdad finally recording realistic figures.
Iraq’s on-going summer offensive is a sign of the stalemate between Iraq’s security forces and militants. First, Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is trying to regain its former position. In July, the emir of Al Qaeda’s umbrella organization the Islamic State of Iraq announced a new campaign called “Breaking The Walls.” He said that his forces would target the government, seek to rebuild its ties with tribes, and return to its former strongholds. The insurgency overall has gotten a boost in manpower with the withdrawal of American forces in December 2011. They released thousands of prisoners, many of which went back to being militants, because they were committed to the cause or could not find a normal life. At the same time, the Iraqi Security Forces have returned to their traditional culture. Rather than conducting counterinsurgency operations like they learned from the Americans, they are now more of a reactive force, carrying out mass arrests after attacks, and sometimes acting like armies of occupation in Sunni areas; tactics very much like those used in Saddam’s time. The on-going political crisis has also played its role as it has increased sectarian tensions and resentments, which militants have exploited for their own gain. All together, that means that the Iraqi army and police will be unable to prevent any major attacks even though they know the summer months bring them about. At the same time, Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups do not have ability to really challenge the government.
After the summer is over, attacks and deaths will go down in Iraq. The problem is that the routine will repeat itself next year, and the year after that until there is a change in the status quo. That will not come from the security forces that are set in their ways. Only the political class can bring about a real transformation. In 2009 and 2010, large numbers of Sunnis participated in elections after largely boycotting them in 2005. That led to a drop in casualties. Now, things are going in the other direction, as the ruling parties are moving farther and farther apart in their feud over the distribution of power, increasing ethnosectarian tensions. That growing resentment within the country, gives some the reason to fight rather than reconcile adding life to the insurgency. The problem for Iraq is that nothing looks to be changing the political deadlock, and in turn the security situation will not improve either.
*With an MA in International Relations, Joel Wing has been researching and writing about Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Guardian and the Washington Independent.
RY/AKnews
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
