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The current economic plight in Iraq and the looming catastrophe
05/17/2015 | (Voice of Iraq) |
became clear that Iraq stands now on the brink of a deadly pit is the possibility of a storm economic disaster, an earthquake and tsunami of bankruptcy and the loss of financial liquidity, which will put the future of the whole country on tipping , and all because of lower crude oil prices. We had warned before more than five years on what is going on now, and we said in our article is marked (what you hinder the application of free market economy in Iraq) that the time in which the state will be unable to pay salaries has to come if it continues to follow the same economic policies because oil prices will not stay high forever and that prices should will go in one day toward decline. Any familiar with the conditions of the oil industry in the world knows that the crude oil will not stay (in gold) Lions on the length of the term, and it will become one day an ordinary commodity and that the world is towards exceeded this item by finding alternative sources of energy for many reasons, not the area to enter into here .
Indeed, we find that once the shift toward shale in some countries, as well as the occurrence of large oil fields in the hands of armed groups began to sell its production at low prices in order to provide income for their operations, the situation went quickly crude oil prices downward. These factors are not a candidate for the demise rapidly and may last a long time, has added to it a new influential reasons in the future of oil could push towards further decline.
The men governments that came to rule Iraq never listen to tips and not the views warned of access to the current situation, They continued to go wrong in their policies and to move forward in the wondrous and strange economic system that includes central in everything, but at the same time trying to get the well-being of the free Alaguetsadr non-objective grounds. Over more than a decade, and although there are resources reached following hundreds of billions of dollars from the export of oil did not get any improvement of the Iraqi economy and the continued inflation unchanged and did not get any noticeable improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar. Were it not for the Iraqi Central Bank to sell the dollar in the domestic market at a fixed price to maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar value continued to deteriorate and decline, and perhaps he had arrived at the degree of their level of bad times what it was the days of the economic blockade Baltsainat years.
The most important reason why inflation is to continue to print local currency to meet demand, which remained the state resorted to him until it reached the size of the cash rolling into the hundreds, and perhaps thousands of trillions of dinars. The motive behind the back continue to issue currency to the lack of state resources under the dinar, which paid for more copyright to pay salaries and wages. So there has been no improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar has remained relatively low value, also remained shaky currency. Although the value of the Iraqi dinar has remained almost constant because of the corresponding export of crude oil resources in hard currency, but the dinar remained capable of being easily influenced by any emergency developments in the economic arena as we have seen how quickly its value began to drop once due to lower imports of foreign currency.
Also, its value is prone to drop larger if continued economic conditions moving towards deterioration, especially after the Iraqi Central Bank stopped selling the dollar in the local market. The economic future of the country has become bleak because of the suffering of the government of an unprecedented financial and economic major crisis and put it on the brink of bankruptcy due to lower Export of crude oil resources, and what is available from cash became did not meet the required wages and salaries, which make them linger in this matter and became salaries are delayed for a few days disbursement dates, and even weeks.
Therefore, the government has become in front of two roads only two, either issue more currency, but this time from the non-financial cover offset and this will drive towards continuous collapse of the value of the Iraqi dinar, or trend towards a reduction in salaries. In both cases, you must know that this is the simple process of downloading the price of the failure of successive governments and the failures of the citizen to survive so things led to this gendarmerie away with it.
Even if the application of this process succeeds, it will be a jump on the causes of the crisis, which made economists Duds their policies wrong, and will be with one another, just to relieve the symptoms without addressing the causes of the disease process. He also will become the other hand, like a reward for being the gendarmerie of thieves and failures, which will push them to continue to flood the country in more peril for allegedly not an alternative to what they make it.
The official's comments are showing that the most likely procedure in Recombination is a trend towards a reduction salaries. The seriousness of this harsh measure is that it has become will not succeed in saving the country from its crisis, even though before applying it to the general level command, because the incision that took place in the economic march widened larger than any patch can be blocked by and became of no use with any attempt to tinkering. As the government if what she did on the salaries of its employees and its citizens reduction will prove that nothing is interested in more of the search is futile for any way to get the money, even if it is from the pockets of the poor citizens to provide accessible from one currency to meet what can be filled from the wide budget deficit.
On the other hand, such a move would befall the mobility of the economy itself in the killing of what does not make for the future for the Treasury to receive financial resources from non-export of crude oil to the recession, the commercial sector and economic activities deactivated sector. We have repeatedly been the government warning of the risk of increased salaries by relying only on crude oil resources because it is not true in a country like Iraq, especially the hearts of the country and the number is constantly moving upward at a high rate.
The economic recovery that happened to the individual because of the increase in wages that took place several years ago was a tentative recovery, in addition to being a recovery looks like a swelling bubble because he was not sober and solid. As inflation remained absorbed most of the increase, which kept those gains in a state of constant threat. That it is natural that citizens demanding higher salaries because in their view the best solution to their problems and their suffering. That is down to these requests is a sound basis is a big mistake should have been the last governments do not fall in it.
Instead of increasing salaries had to be that the government is seeking to strengthen the Iraqi dinar and seek to raise its value constantly to return it to its previous status against foreign currencies, then find himself the citizen receives the same salary, which was received by yesterday, but purchasing power is growing steadily can provide him all what he wishes . That not to proceed in this way is the one who brought the case to the current situation, it is not to overlook that the previous governments have been forced at times to conduct this the wrong way because of the large by the pressure from the street because it basically ignorant and unqualified to solve the economic problems plaguing the country.
We have shown In our previous article that follow the market economy is the only way the sponsor solving the country's problems, and Pena also that the follow this road requires great courage and sacrifices must have offered from the government and the people at the same time in order to be passing the gap that lies between the failed central system and the successful free economy without that would leave a significant impact on the conditions of the citizen. That all socialist countries which turned to a market economy beginning of the nineties of the past decade passed a big difficulties have accompanied this shift, is that the peoples of those countries patient on those problems and made the sacrifices required of suffering and patience of even managed a period not exceeding five years to overcome adversity and start racing to reap the fruits of This shift has become a luxury and that brings new system taking it.
That people can be patient with the difficulties if they may go and raise awareness among their midst and I knew the results expected from such an economic transformation, but they will not forgive those who go out into the abyss of economic and destruction, even if it came down to their requests in order to decode tragic situations on a temporary basis to provide some detente deceptive in their positions. lies Iraq's economic state currently problems which catastrophic and imminent following factors:
1. severe decrease in the state's resources of foreign currency due to lower crude oil prices.
2. sharp decline in the internal state that comes from taxes and customs and other resources.
3. rampant corruption in the body of the state, and the spread of embezzlement, bribery and commissions in all activities.
4. hyperinflation in employment that operate in the State between military and civilian size, and the lack of any opportunities for making money is the appointment in the state.
5. high level of wages and salaries for sliced wide of state employees without being offset by a reasonable degree of productivity, as well as disguised unemployment spectacularly.
6. Most of the private sector institutions ceased to function and the migration of capital abroad.
7. weak performance and poor experience and knowledge, and the migration of most of the competencies abroad.
8. not the right man rule in the right place application, and has held losers sites mission affects the lack of success in the performance of its duties on the conditions of the citizens and the circumstances of their lives.
9. proliferation of counterfeit and non-real certificates, or those obtained from non-academic, pushing to more failure in renderings -governmental organizations.
10. disintegration sober education system, and continue to pump the armies of degrees to the body of the state of non-existence experience real and rehabilitation have to increase the Alobeie placed on the state to provide for large segments unproductive.
11. large number of public holidays dramatically, even become a half-day almost a year of non-action.
The natural conditions that going any country in the world in this situation towards the abyss unless a miracle to save the country and its people from this determination are available. And that's where there is no Start miracles of our time must permission to walk in the right way in order to take the ship ridden wind their way around the woods, and who is not is central to leave and move towards a free economy.
As stated above, the transition from a centralized economy to a market economy will create great difficulties because the citizens' living for decades under a centralized system provides them privileges regardless of the level and size of the performance will not make them receptive to easily shift the state to adopt an economic system based on competition and innovation. It also will increase the burden on ordinary citizens who are already are under the poverty line because of failed economic policies that have not been able to improve their situation despite the hundreds of billions that have entered the state.
Therefore, the task of the state in alleviating the burdens that fall on the shoulders of these layers will be tough and not be glad, but it can be possible if the availability of sincerity and root out corruption. Also, the government's role in educating people to make them believe that this is the only path possible for the country out of its crisis must be strong and big, which can contribute to the acceptance of such a transformation is difficult. The steps and procedures that must be adopted by the government to resolve the current economic crisis and gradually move toward free economy can be summarized as follows:
1. The salary freeze is now a no-brainer upwards or never reduced.
2. quest to find resources of the state in local currency by all means possible and restore the flow of money to the Central Bank of Iraq.
3. The establishment of a sound and sober tax system (and unjust) and the fight against corruption in this important sector.
4. establishment of custom solid system that takes into account the national interests, and increase duties on goods that can be produced in Iraq to protect the national product, and to encourage the export of local products abroad.
5. encourage investment and attract capital to set up economic projects.
6. Go governmental functions to follow the sober ways and fundamentalist increase, and upgrade and review all the certificates carried by the staff and the sacking of carrying forged certificates, and put strict controls in the scientific equivalence of diplomas.
7. encourage civil projects and start-up companies and providing the means to support her through the provision of privileges and tax exemptions for fixed periods.
8. enactment of laws that guarantee to individuals working in the private sector rights and guarantees such as salaries pensions and social security, health insurance and others.
9. establishment of trade unions and enact appropriate laws have to be able to defend its members.
10. development of the banking system, and create systems for programs private pension guaranteed State.
11. establishment of employment offices and the provision of financial grants for unemployed people.
12. gradual transformation of state institutions to private institutions, and sale of the stalled work and the failed institutions to the private sector.
13. provide all possible facilities that allow individuals and private institutions from setting up small enterprises and large in all sectors.
14. encourage workers in the state to go about establishing their own businesses by giving each person willing to leave work in state loans and facilities to enable it to do so.
15. prevent duplication of work, and the separation of each employee proves the existence of Activity-profit special to him.
16. Establish a tax system fair to all events in order to achieve the state internal financial resources.
17. encourage the private associations to build housing guaranteed by the state through appropriate regulations.
18. establish a governmental role, especially for the care of the elderly and the coverage of social welfare programs.
19. application of laws for everyone equally, rigorous, and expansion in the style of the imposition of financial penalties on all kinds of offenses as a way to teach people the principle of respect for the law and the creation of new resources for the state.
20. In the fight against corruption and bribery, extortion and gain non-venture between state officials strongly sever the relationship completely between the employee and the citizen through the establishment of e-government, and the establishment of effective monitoring devices for this purpose.
21. deprive companies offering kickbacks for state employees of any future jobs and the creation of a black list of such companies.
22. addressing all aspects of the imbalance in the education sector and to encourage the trend towards private all levels of education and of course, the most important of all that came above is spreading peace and security and harmony VII of the country by solving the political problems and ensure the rights of everyone and make the principle of citizenship above all other factional considerations.
It was not certain that the convergence of the above actions popularity at start racing until their application has been grumbling them prevail, but must be understood that the necessary require all came in, and otherwise the economy will face a major disaster no one can imagine. But after a period of application of these measures and the effects are perpetuated clearly will appear on all aspects of life and prosperity will prevail on all strata of society and its members.
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05/17/2015 | (Voice of Iraq) |
became clear that Iraq stands now on the brink of a deadly pit is the possibility of a storm economic disaster, an earthquake and tsunami of bankruptcy and the loss of financial liquidity, which will put the future of the whole country on tipping , and all because of lower crude oil prices. We had warned before more than five years on what is going on now, and we said in our article is marked (what you hinder the application of free market economy in Iraq) that the time in which the state will be unable to pay salaries has to come if it continues to follow the same economic policies because oil prices will not stay high forever and that prices should will go in one day toward decline. Any familiar with the conditions of the oil industry in the world knows that the crude oil will not stay (in gold) Lions on the length of the term, and it will become one day an ordinary commodity and that the world is towards exceeded this item by finding alternative sources of energy for many reasons, not the area to enter into here .
Indeed, we find that once the shift toward shale in some countries, as well as the occurrence of large oil fields in the hands of armed groups began to sell its production at low prices in order to provide income for their operations, the situation went quickly crude oil prices downward. These factors are not a candidate for the demise rapidly and may last a long time, has added to it a new influential reasons in the future of oil could push towards further decline.
The men governments that came to rule Iraq never listen to tips and not the views warned of access to the current situation, They continued to go wrong in their policies and to move forward in the wondrous and strange economic system that includes central in everything, but at the same time trying to get the well-being of the free Alaguetsadr non-objective grounds. Over more than a decade, and although there are resources reached following hundreds of billions of dollars from the export of oil did not get any improvement of the Iraqi economy and the continued inflation unchanged and did not get any noticeable improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar. Were it not for the Iraqi Central Bank to sell the dollar in the domestic market at a fixed price to maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar value continued to deteriorate and decline, and perhaps he had arrived at the degree of their level of bad times what it was the days of the economic blockade Baltsainat years.
The most important reason why inflation is to continue to print local currency to meet demand, which remained the state resorted to him until it reached the size of the cash rolling into the hundreds, and perhaps thousands of trillions of dinars. The motive behind the back continue to issue currency to the lack of state resources under the dinar, which paid for more copyright to pay salaries and wages. So there has been no improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar has remained relatively low value, also remained shaky currency. Although the value of the Iraqi dinar has remained almost constant because of the corresponding export of crude oil resources in hard currency, but the dinar remained capable of being easily influenced by any emergency developments in the economic arena as we have seen how quickly its value began to drop once due to lower imports of foreign currency.
Also, its value is prone to drop larger if continued economic conditions moving towards deterioration, especially after the Iraqi Central Bank stopped selling the dollar in the local market. The economic future of the country has become bleak because of the suffering of the government of an unprecedented financial and economic major crisis and put it on the brink of bankruptcy due to lower Export of crude oil resources, and what is available from cash became did not meet the required wages and salaries, which make them linger in this matter and became salaries are delayed for a few days disbursement dates, and even weeks.
Therefore, the government has become in front of two roads only two, either issue more currency, but this time from the non-financial cover offset and this will drive towards continuous collapse of the value of the Iraqi dinar, or trend towards a reduction in salaries. In both cases, you must know that this is the simple process of downloading the price of the failure of successive governments and the failures of the citizen to survive so things led to this gendarmerie away with it.
Even if the application of this process succeeds, it will be a jump on the causes of the crisis, which made economists Duds their policies wrong, and will be with one another, just to relieve the symptoms without addressing the causes of the disease process. He also will become the other hand, like a reward for being the gendarmerie of thieves and failures, which will push them to continue to flood the country in more peril for allegedly not an alternative to what they make it.
The official's comments are showing that the most likely procedure in Recombination is a trend towards a reduction salaries. The seriousness of this harsh measure is that it has become will not succeed in saving the country from its crisis, even though before applying it to the general level command, because the incision that took place in the economic march widened larger than any patch can be blocked by and became of no use with any attempt to tinkering. As the government if what she did on the salaries of its employees and its citizens reduction will prove that nothing is interested in more of the search is futile for any way to get the money, even if it is from the pockets of the poor citizens to provide accessible from one currency to meet what can be filled from the wide budget deficit.
On the other hand, such a move would befall the mobility of the economy itself in the killing of what does not make for the future for the Treasury to receive financial resources from non-export of crude oil to the recession, the commercial sector and economic activities deactivated sector. We have repeatedly been the government warning of the risk of increased salaries by relying only on crude oil resources because it is not true in a country like Iraq, especially the hearts of the country and the number is constantly moving upward at a high rate.
The economic recovery that happened to the individual because of the increase in wages that took place several years ago was a tentative recovery, in addition to being a recovery looks like a swelling bubble because he was not sober and solid. As inflation remained absorbed most of the increase, which kept those gains in a state of constant threat. That it is natural that citizens demanding higher salaries because in their view the best solution to their problems and their suffering. That is down to these requests is a sound basis is a big mistake should have been the last governments do not fall in it.
Instead of increasing salaries had to be that the government is seeking to strengthen the Iraqi dinar and seek to raise its value constantly to return it to its previous status against foreign currencies, then find himself the citizen receives the same salary, which was received by yesterday, but purchasing power is growing steadily can provide him all what he wishes . That not to proceed in this way is the one who brought the case to the current situation, it is not to overlook that the previous governments have been forced at times to conduct this the wrong way because of the large by the pressure from the street because it basically ignorant and unqualified to solve the economic problems plaguing the country.
We have shown In our previous article that follow the market economy is the only way the sponsor solving the country's problems, and Pena also that the follow this road requires great courage and sacrifices must have offered from the government and the people at the same time in order to be passing the gap that lies between the failed central system and the successful free economy without that would leave a significant impact on the conditions of the citizen. That all socialist countries which turned to a market economy beginning of the nineties of the past decade passed a big difficulties have accompanied this shift, is that the peoples of those countries patient on those problems and made the sacrifices required of suffering and patience of even managed a period not exceeding five years to overcome adversity and start racing to reap the fruits of This shift has become a luxury and that brings new system taking it.
That people can be patient with the difficulties if they may go and raise awareness among their midst and I knew the results expected from such an economic transformation, but they will not forgive those who go out into the abyss of economic and destruction, even if it came down to their requests in order to decode tragic situations on a temporary basis to provide some detente deceptive in their positions. lies Iraq's economic state currently problems which catastrophic and imminent following factors:
1. severe decrease in the state's resources of foreign currency due to lower crude oil prices.
2. sharp decline in the internal state that comes from taxes and customs and other resources.
3. rampant corruption in the body of the state, and the spread of embezzlement, bribery and commissions in all activities.
4. hyperinflation in employment that operate in the State between military and civilian size, and the lack of any opportunities for making money is the appointment in the state.
5. high level of wages and salaries for sliced wide of state employees without being offset by a reasonable degree of productivity, as well as disguised unemployment spectacularly.
6. Most of the private sector institutions ceased to function and the migration of capital abroad.
7. weak performance and poor experience and knowledge, and the migration of most of the competencies abroad.
8. not the right man rule in the right place application, and has held losers sites mission affects the lack of success in the performance of its duties on the conditions of the citizens and the circumstances of their lives.
9. proliferation of counterfeit and non-real certificates, or those obtained from non-academic, pushing to more failure in renderings -governmental organizations.
10. disintegration sober education system, and continue to pump the armies of degrees to the body of the state of non-existence experience real and rehabilitation have to increase the Alobeie placed on the state to provide for large segments unproductive.
11. large number of public holidays dramatically, even become a half-day almost a year of non-action.
The natural conditions that going any country in the world in this situation towards the abyss unless a miracle to save the country and its people from this determination are available. And that's where there is no Start miracles of our time must permission to walk in the right way in order to take the ship ridden wind their way around the woods, and who is not is central to leave and move towards a free economy.
As stated above, the transition from a centralized economy to a market economy will create great difficulties because the citizens' living for decades under a centralized system provides them privileges regardless of the level and size of the performance will not make them receptive to easily shift the state to adopt an economic system based on competition and innovation. It also will increase the burden on ordinary citizens who are already are under the poverty line because of failed economic policies that have not been able to improve their situation despite the hundreds of billions that have entered the state.
Therefore, the task of the state in alleviating the burdens that fall on the shoulders of these layers will be tough and not be glad, but it can be possible if the availability of sincerity and root out corruption. Also, the government's role in educating people to make them believe that this is the only path possible for the country out of its crisis must be strong and big, which can contribute to the acceptance of such a transformation is difficult. The steps and procedures that must be adopted by the government to resolve the current economic crisis and gradually move toward free economy can be summarized as follows:
1. The salary freeze is now a no-brainer upwards or never reduced.
2. quest to find resources of the state in local currency by all means possible and restore the flow of money to the Central Bank of Iraq.
3. The establishment of a sound and sober tax system (and unjust) and the fight against corruption in this important sector.
4. establishment of custom solid system that takes into account the national interests, and increase duties on goods that can be produced in Iraq to protect the national product, and to encourage the export of local products abroad.
5. encourage investment and attract capital to set up economic projects.
6. Go governmental functions to follow the sober ways and fundamentalist increase, and upgrade and review all the certificates carried by the staff and the sacking of carrying forged certificates, and put strict controls in the scientific equivalence of diplomas.
7. encourage civil projects and start-up companies and providing the means to support her through the provision of privileges and tax exemptions for fixed periods.
8. enactment of laws that guarantee to individuals working in the private sector rights and guarantees such as salaries pensions and social security, health insurance and others.
9. establishment of trade unions and enact appropriate laws have to be able to defend its members.
10. development of the banking system, and create systems for programs private pension guaranteed State.
11. establishment of employment offices and the provision of financial grants for unemployed people.
12. gradual transformation of state institutions to private institutions, and sale of the stalled work and the failed institutions to the private sector.
13. provide all possible facilities that allow individuals and private institutions from setting up small enterprises and large in all sectors.
14. encourage workers in the state to go about establishing their own businesses by giving each person willing to leave work in state loans and facilities to enable it to do so.
15. prevent duplication of work, and the separation of each employee proves the existence of Activity-profit special to him.
16. Establish a tax system fair to all events in order to achieve the state internal financial resources.
17. encourage the private associations to build housing guaranteed by the state through appropriate regulations.
18. establish a governmental role, especially for the care of the elderly and the coverage of social welfare programs.
19. application of laws for everyone equally, rigorous, and expansion in the style of the imposition of financial penalties on all kinds of offenses as a way to teach people the principle of respect for the law and the creation of new resources for the state.
20. In the fight against corruption and bribery, extortion and gain non-venture between state officials strongly sever the relationship completely between the employee and the citizen through the establishment of e-government, and the establishment of effective monitoring devices for this purpose.
21. deprive companies offering kickbacks for state employees of any future jobs and the creation of a black list of such companies.
22. addressing all aspects of the imbalance in the education sector and to encourage the trend towards private all levels of education and of course, the most important of all that came above is spreading peace and security and harmony VII of the country by solving the political problems and ensure the rights of everyone and make the principle of citizenship above all other factional considerations.
It was not certain that the convergence of the above actions popularity at start racing until their application has been grumbling them prevail, but must be understood that the necessary require all came in, and otherwise the economy will face a major disaster no one can imagine. But after a period of application of these measures and the effects are perpetuated clearly will appear on all aspects of life and prosperity will prevail on all strata of society and its members.
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