Friday , July 3, 2015
Obviously in the financial and commercial market, Baghdad, in recent weeks, the phenomenon of soft loose in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar value. There is no doubt that such a chaos even though it was only partly because it affects in different ways on the commercial market, and the prices of consumer goods, and at the local savings accounts, and the national and foreign investment, as they strain the low-lying earners and the poor, too.
Look at this phenomenon from various angles synthetic means, in one way or another, the risks to the national economy revealed, in terms of their impact on the economic structure of Iraq, originally infected large disorder after the drop in oil prices in the global market, especially in the case that the diagnosis of our national economy for a long time - before and after 2003 - the economy importing ones to suffer greatly from the continuous deficit in the trade balance, despite the presence of rentier economy feature of Iraq as a source of oil countries.
This situation needs to be realistic analysis, not from the standpoint of purely commercial as he did and said senior officials in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, but needs a deep analysis of the economic point of view sink into the deep roots, from the point of the main nature of the capitalist system point of view, and the nature of the financial Anqlabath , as a result of its crises successive periodic, according to the fact that the inevitable crises starting point for interpretation of the role and relationships (the US dollar) as a global account to assess the strength of the national currency, in most countries of the world, up or down.
In the 2003 case of the fall of the totalitarian regime of Iraq joined immediately, fully, to the ranks of global capitalism camp, controlled by not managers or ministers (the public sector) as was the case in Saddam Hussein's regime, but became men (the private sector) of political Islam parties owners , who took control of the ruling power ever since. The first thing you have to do your next sector mostly from outside Iraq is to transform the Iraqi economy to the (privatization). The first copies of this conversion are taken from the brutal methods of capitalism, where the elimination of the national industrial sector as a whole, and the looting of equipment and machines military industry, which bases its rules and built by the former regime, and sell some of their allies to countries neighboring Iraq. As they left the Iraqi Agriculture received by desertification and neglect the adoption of the new capitalists on the import of miscellaneous consumer goods, in the forefront of food goods from outside the country.
From the point of this realism of view and if we exclude the export of oil, the Iraqi economy we see on the intractable deficit in the trade balance, in the sense that import trade has been since 2003 until today grow faster than export trade, which means that our country spends a high percentage of oil exports on goods and services revenue imported. This form of spending is the most dangerous in every national economy, whether in Iraq or elsewhere, because it makes the national wealth less than their real value, especially if we take into account the fact that domestic savings in the central bank's dollar reserves is not a design blueprint stable condition and there is fear among the capital Export of foreign investments to the country is not safe in most of its parts, which in turn stifles the necessary investments to sustain economic growth.
In fact, the relationship between the US dollar between national currencies and in various countries around the world affected by various capitalist - political and economic conditions. Many political factors affecting this relationship. Its example, a senior Russian ruble devaluation during the past two years after the emergence of Russian - Ukrainian crisis and the secession of Crimea as a result of the first and the subsequent punitive measures against Western economic-political Russia. Also, the growth of US exports during the current year and reduced the proportion of Japanese exports created a molecularly rise in value of the dollar to the Japanese yen.
As well as the internal and regional wars or even cases of armament ready for those wars directly or indirectly affect the relationship between the US dollar and the values of national currencies. For example, we see the devaluation of the Syrian pound Egyptian and Lebanese pound and the lira currency and the Tunisian concrete as results of the new reality is economically stable - investment - tourism. We also note the devaluation of the Iranian Altoman because of US and international economic sanctions measures.
In our country the relationship between the dollar and the dinar to the interpretation of a different kind is needed in terms of investment and savings do not exist for them as the real power in the Iraqi economy because the real value outside the scope of the oil accounts, is, however, Iraqi capitalists who appeared during the later years of 2003 as elements of capitalism, parasitic, Savage to collect profits various illegal means on the overall gross national product, which has not altered features so far account has remained outstanding, including the following:
(1) national investment accounts are not yet concrete, making the phenomenon of spending on import of goods is always helpful for the dollar-oil leaking from the inside out, for the benefit of the Iraqi parasitic capitalist class.
(2) the national industry in the public and private sectors reached quickly to the case of full recession has stopped all designs and experiences of revival. For example, stop, fat and tissue, batteries, and dozens of other self-financing coefficient of the Ministry of Industry cement plants.
(3) the emergence of a very clear and influential negative indicators, such as the increase in virtual senior officials and their advisers and armed Hamayatem salaries, the Council of Ministers and the House of Representatives and in the Council of State, which burdened the state budget.
(4) has existed trade deficit unchanged, that any movement (international capital) are driven (domestic capital). In this case the Iraqi dinar remains subordinate to the US dollar, as is the case in Japan, South Korea and Andenossia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong, despite the presence of relatively positive growth rates in the majority of the economies of these countries.
(5) that in general (large fractures) in Iraqi society, resulting from many of the occupiers, the Americans and their mistakes and then the resulting policy for terrorists and their crimes, are still not healed yet. Add to that the successive Iraqi governments have not been able to stop the proceedings continued (general crisis) in our country and so-called government reforms are not progressing forward but backward.
During Saddam Hussein's wars, internal and external, and down to the United Nations and the US decision to impose condition (the blockade), it had claimed the Iraqi dinar to the gutter, while the dollar value per amounted to three thousand dinars, after it was one dinar equivalent of three dollars and a half for more than 60 years. It has become everything in the nineties of the last century is not a reasonable .asubh only sensible thing is a flight of people and funds to the outside world after a succession of government measures on the degree of extremely dangerous not save the Iraqi people from hunger and destitution and economic oppression and down to the US-led invasion in April 9, 2003 .
After the demolition and destruction of 12 years and hit the Iraqi infrastructure and the loss of billions of dollars from the Iraqi treasury did not work with all the efforts of governments, which was formed according footsteps and visions of the occupiers, the Americans, and far parliamentary elections, the successive Iraqi governments, the whole, it is planning a strategy to develop the capitalist spirit in commercial structures , to support the commercial development of import and individual consumption, which led to the survival of the value of 1160 dinars per one dollar a type of assessment has become an important source of investment in politics and in the export and import policy.
Did not take successive governments to hegemony over the past 12 years the prospects or expectations vibration value between the dollar and the dinar, has earned such a transformation during the month of June 2015 presumptuously structural shift in this value while risen soft dollar exchange rate of 1170 dinars to 1,400 dinars and then returned It is soft to nearly 1,200 dinars. One has not been studied, so far, the volume of capital losses for the Iraqi state, and did not study the size of the financial benefits for the Iraqi capitalists and their subsequent negative effects of the Iraqi dinar assets resident. Also it did not include the central bank signals and the Ministry of Finance to the effect of these (vibration warning) on economic growth and the potential spiral of deflation on the economy of Iraq, which is based financially on the basis of the US dollar base and not on the basis of the Iraqi dinar.
The truth that I want to alert them that summed up (vibration Alhuzeirani) in the value of the dinar against the dollar value is an initial warning bell for many possibilities that may result from the current economic situation, and the current political situation, and the current military situation. No doubt that the dollar smuggling to Syria and Iran and was a means of agents of the Government of Malta to help the former Mahasrtin two countries (Iran and Syria). The continued sale of large amounts of US dollar will lead to a reduction of the Iraqi reserves, leading to weakening of the national currency against the US dollar.
Everyone knows that major confrontations stands in front of the Iraqi state since June 2014 after the occupation of the organization of the Islamic state, the province of Mosul and then Salahuddin province, and in the post-Anbar province. Maybe this whole situation leads to further Iraq's foreign debt, the first of the results of the drop in oil prices in the global market as a result and as a result of the outcome of the need of the Iraqi state to weapons and equipment loans, which need its armed forces - while Tkdh Znadha war to liberate the provinces of Nineveh and Anbar, from the hands of Daash forces armed in military battles - is difficult to predict the duration of time or geographic range, despite the ability to predict the possibility of further smuggling of public money and private while racing Iraqis capitalists Alotfelln especially since the doors of corruption are open to corrupt its power 12 years ago terrified, which threatens the possibility of vibration is thoughtful , unexpectedly, of the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the case of any retreat or hesitation US support supposed when the Iraqi armed forces engaged in the upcoming war against the occupiers Aldoaash, especially since Iraq is now suffering a new problem related to three million people displaced from their towns and villages, dreamers to retrieve their homes and properties, After Iraq's victory in the war on Daash, which will be the real cost trillions of uncalculated of dinars, while the financial resources themselves suffer from the speed of its decline, especially in light of the economic recession, caused by the complete stagnation in industrial and agricultural economy, which unite a negative against the trade balance and the decline in favor of external debt.
There is no doubt that the war, every war, be painful in the habit, even in the event of victory over the enemies of the homeland, it is painful for the population which is painful for the economy, and the results tend to the recession and the economic downturn. As I draw attention, here, to these negative aspects for he wanted to continue (chime) in front of the government and in front of economists and finance officials, all, that the subject, since now, and before the war on Daash, to precise calculations every likelihood of the money, paid and flowing, and be as estimated and financial organizations, well-planned and scrutiny, and be under the supervision and control firm and strict. All the wars in the world learned of the existence of peoples and governments filled with bags and bags emptied, financial bonds and financial bonds rises goes down, and the national currency depreciates and other currencies rise worth.
The most important feature is characterized by the government during the war, whatever the internal or external is Administrative feature committed to wisdom, and the ability to evaluate every step of the financial and economic measures, whether in the long war perspective or in the long invisible after the end of the war and the liberation of the occupied, which should not be an element Elements of threat status and the price of the dinar against the status and price of the US dollar and the euro and sterling. The future financial imperatives necessitate the government should not lose sight of the need to continue structural economic reforms seriously in the provinces, which are not directly engaged in war with Aldoaash, because the economic merit is required in the event of war, too. There is no doubt that the economic merit need economic and scientific leadership are based features to the same institutional, technological and scientific features experiences, Such distinctive leadership alone could in difficult circumstances put rational economic policy to ensure the budget is able to meet the urgent needs, and provide part of the financial liquidity, and achieve internal and external balance between the national currency and foreign currency. This alone is able to stop the negative possibilities under military cases and trade openness with the neighboring countries and the two workers from dangerous devaluation of national currency factors, a decline that can not be for any government to stop Balomnaat naked or naked emotion or abstract slogans.
Issue, here, is not about optimism and pessimism, but that the real opportunity on the capabilities to address the imbalance in the value of the Iraqi dinar, and submit them requires an effective economic leadership able to avoid serious dangers that loom in the coming prospects, through the development of a new policy consistent with the status quo and the face of war Interior satisfy the needs of the population and at the same time. As it required of all Iraqi economic efficiencies inside and outside Iraq, such as Gentlemen: Mehdi al-Hafez, Jaafar Abdul Ghani, Sabri Zayer, Mohammad Ali Zinni, Kazem Habib, Shabibi, the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, Fadel Abbas Mehdi, full dentex, Saleh Yasser, Mohammed Saeed Alaill Tariq Alheims, Ali Mirza, Kazem inch, Isam Chalabi, Basil gardener and many others, hard and full cooperation in helping the Iraqi government and institutions to protect the national economy and our currency from collapse.
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