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Between Barzani and al-Abadi
8/21/15
BAGHDAD / Obelisk: While the eyes of the world are on the enormous developments in the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the war in Yemen and the new Turkey clashes with all of the organization Daash and the PKK, there have been several important developments on the Iraqi arena. If these developments met together, they can change the face of Iraqi politics that affect - either positively or negatively - in the priority accorded by the international community to combat what is known as organized Daash.
In Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi-year-old faces angry opinion, supported by the religious authority, Ali al-Sistani, where all of us are demanding to carry out reforms in the provision of services and the fight against corruption. At the same time, just a few hundred miles to the north, Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani, is facing the biggest challenge him since assuming the presidency of the Kurdistan Regional Government before more than ten years, like any dictator, seeking to eternal power.
Abadi has responded to public protests bold steps refer to the new determination to take over the reins.
This includes pumping new life in institutions and anti-corruption policies and to call for the abolition of some government positions that seem exotic: including several deputy prime ministers and the president of the republic in Iraq.
As Abadi also suggested ending the quota system in government positions (which until now allowed for parties and individual politicians perpetuating cronyism rampant in the government) and the abolition of the armies of guards, especially those that surround all of the main actors figures.
Some of these will require to take parliamentary action or even the introduction of some constitutional amendments, both of which are very difficult having provided in Iraq. But, with the support of Mr. Sistani intense program Abadi, however express a strong political support at least outwardly, the prime minister may be able to achieve at least a partial victory.However, if it will not put an end to corruption or the lack of government efficiency, of course, but it might Akhvdahma to a large extent, Bray, James Jeffrey, is a Fellow of "Philip Solondz" at the Washington Institute and former US ambassador in Iraq and Turkey in a report published by "The Washington Institute."
Such a success, even though it was partly to strengthen the grip of al-Abadi poles against parties who dominate the parliament. However, if the legislature hampered the work of al-Abadi, the blame public opinion on the government's failure. Thus, while the current crisis offers to the Prime Minister had the best opportunity that has yet to show the leader's popular and powerful, but the government's political weakness makes his position more precarious than that faced by his colleague in the north, President Barzani.
Barzani, the problems stem from the absence of a legitimate constitution for the Kurdish region. P "Kurdistan Regional Government" subject to national Iraqi Constitution, but that the latter is constantly working allowed a lot of Kurdish governance mechanisms that were in effect before 2005 de facto.
As a result, the ruling in this self-region governance and political environment, consisting of three levels: presidential republic headed by Barzani (the leader of the Peshmerga forces); and factions Kurdish Altkulaidian - Democratic Party (KDP) led by Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, and each of them Peshmerga its own forces and controls the government bureaucracy in transactions both in his stronghold of Arbil or Sulaymaniyah in a row, as well as the de facto partition of the easy positions in each of the two areas in the region; and a democratically elected parliament is trying to impose his will.
The immediate cause of the current crisis in the Kurdistan Regional Government is that it is supposed to step down Barzani actually from his post within two weeks due to the expiration of the extension of the second presidential mandate, which affected two years and which is supposed to be the last, an agreement had been reached by the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
By this time, usually it had been reached another deal behind the scenes to resolve this unfortunate event. Fbarzana wants to stay in office, and his clan well represented in the regional office and to occupy positions in Baghdad.
The question that arises here, did not reach a deal this time? Blame the progressive weakness of "Patriotic Union of Kurdistan" and stemming in turn from the many health problems suffered by the head of the "Union" Jalal Talabani since 2012, poor election results, and split the reformist wing, "Goran Party", before half a decade . These developments did not leave the whole front of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, headed by Barzani necessary partner in the negotiations that take place behind the scenes to re-extend his term. Instead, the parliament - which is dominated by "Goran Party" and several Islamist parties and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan weak - the right to decide who will be the next president insisted. Barzani has refused this request and called for a presidential election on the twentieth of August, surpassing the Parliament.
In spite of the pressure from the Barzani for the elections enjoys legal legitimacy of less than Abadi anti-corruption campaign, but Barzani currently possess military, financial and popular greater authority to make it as a dictator, unlike Abadi, who is seeking in fact to be repaired in accordance with the democratic approach.
Thus, it is far less likely to stumble in the parliamentary battle of al-Abadi - with that in this period dominated by the character of uncertainty, can not even be sure that Barzani. Can both leaders should support each other in principle, but such cooperation may hinder due to the ongoing bickering between Baghdad and Erbil, on military, regional and oil issues.
The main interest of the United States in the midst of this crisis in Abadi stay in power, and earned him the fruit of reform efforts led by, if possible. Washington also depends on the restoration of stability in Kurdistan, and this means helping Barzani to find a way to stay in power without throttle parliamentary democracy. It is ironic that both Turkey and Iran seem to see things the same way and are practicing pressure on the political leaders in the Kurdistan Regional Government to continue to support Barzani.
The United States is one way or another, to find solutions to both of these Iraqi allies, given that the struggle against al-Daash will take a bad turn if you missed stability in Baghdad and Erbil. However, even in the best cases, the frequency of political crises in recent times will distract attention - at least temporarily - from the fight against al-Daash campaign - which shows once again that the US administration headed by Obama does not grant - ignorance of them - the goal of "destruction "organization Daash highest priority. In the Middle East the dynamic and unstable and uncertain, it may not remain current America's allies beside it tomorrow, but the organization will inevitably Daash if the schedule followed by the US administration has not changed.
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8/21/15
BAGHDAD / Obelisk: While the eyes of the world are on the enormous developments in the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the war in Yemen and the new Turkey clashes with all of the organization Daash and the PKK, there have been several important developments on the Iraqi arena. If these developments met together, they can change the face of Iraqi politics that affect - either positively or negatively - in the priority accorded by the international community to combat what is known as organized Daash.
In Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi-year-old faces angry opinion, supported by the religious authority, Ali al-Sistani, where all of us are demanding to carry out reforms in the provision of services and the fight against corruption. At the same time, just a few hundred miles to the north, Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani, is facing the biggest challenge him since assuming the presidency of the Kurdistan Regional Government before more than ten years, like any dictator, seeking to eternal power.
Abadi has responded to public protests bold steps refer to the new determination to take over the reins.
This includes pumping new life in institutions and anti-corruption policies and to call for the abolition of some government positions that seem exotic: including several deputy prime ministers and the president of the republic in Iraq.
As Abadi also suggested ending the quota system in government positions (which until now allowed for parties and individual politicians perpetuating cronyism rampant in the government) and the abolition of the armies of guards, especially those that surround all of the main actors figures.
Some of these will require to take parliamentary action or even the introduction of some constitutional amendments, both of which are very difficult having provided in Iraq. But, with the support of Mr. Sistani intense program Abadi, however express a strong political support at least outwardly, the prime minister may be able to achieve at least a partial victory.However, if it will not put an end to corruption or the lack of government efficiency, of course, but it might Akhvdahma to a large extent, Bray, James Jeffrey, is a Fellow of "Philip Solondz" at the Washington Institute and former US ambassador in Iraq and Turkey in a report published by "The Washington Institute."
Such a success, even though it was partly to strengthen the grip of al-Abadi poles against parties who dominate the parliament. However, if the legislature hampered the work of al-Abadi, the blame public opinion on the government's failure. Thus, while the current crisis offers to the Prime Minister had the best opportunity that has yet to show the leader's popular and powerful, but the government's political weakness makes his position more precarious than that faced by his colleague in the north, President Barzani.
Barzani, the problems stem from the absence of a legitimate constitution for the Kurdish region. P "Kurdistan Regional Government" subject to national Iraqi Constitution, but that the latter is constantly working allowed a lot of Kurdish governance mechanisms that were in effect before 2005 de facto.
As a result, the ruling in this self-region governance and political environment, consisting of three levels: presidential republic headed by Barzani (the leader of the Peshmerga forces); and factions Kurdish Altkulaidian - Democratic Party (KDP) led by Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, and each of them Peshmerga its own forces and controls the government bureaucracy in transactions both in his stronghold of Arbil or Sulaymaniyah in a row, as well as the de facto partition of the easy positions in each of the two areas in the region; and a democratically elected parliament is trying to impose his will.
The immediate cause of the current crisis in the Kurdistan Regional Government is that it is supposed to step down Barzani actually from his post within two weeks due to the expiration of the extension of the second presidential mandate, which affected two years and which is supposed to be the last, an agreement had been reached by the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
By this time, usually it had been reached another deal behind the scenes to resolve this unfortunate event. Fbarzana wants to stay in office, and his clan well represented in the regional office and to occupy positions in Baghdad.
The question that arises here, did not reach a deal this time? Blame the progressive weakness of "Patriotic Union of Kurdistan" and stemming in turn from the many health problems suffered by the head of the "Union" Jalal Talabani since 2012, poor election results, and split the reformist wing, "Goran Party", before half a decade . These developments did not leave the whole front of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, headed by Barzani necessary partner in the negotiations that take place behind the scenes to re-extend his term. Instead, the parliament - which is dominated by "Goran Party" and several Islamist parties and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan weak - the right to decide who will be the next president insisted. Barzani has refused this request and called for a presidential election on the twentieth of August, surpassing the Parliament.
In spite of the pressure from the Barzani for the elections enjoys legal legitimacy of less than Abadi anti-corruption campaign, but Barzani currently possess military, financial and popular greater authority to make it as a dictator, unlike Abadi, who is seeking in fact to be repaired in accordance with the democratic approach.
Thus, it is far less likely to stumble in the parliamentary battle of al-Abadi - with that in this period dominated by the character of uncertainty, can not even be sure that Barzani. Can both leaders should support each other in principle, but such cooperation may hinder due to the ongoing bickering between Baghdad and Erbil, on military, regional and oil issues.
The main interest of the United States in the midst of this crisis in Abadi stay in power, and earned him the fruit of reform efforts led by, if possible. Washington also depends on the restoration of stability in Kurdistan, and this means helping Barzani to find a way to stay in power without throttle parliamentary democracy. It is ironic that both Turkey and Iran seem to see things the same way and are practicing pressure on the political leaders in the Kurdistan Regional Government to continue to support Barzani.
The United States is one way or another, to find solutions to both of these Iraqi allies, given that the struggle against al-Daash will take a bad turn if you missed stability in Baghdad and Erbil. However, even in the best cases, the frequency of political crises in recent times will distract attention - at least temporarily - from the fight against al-Daash campaign - which shows once again that the US administration headed by Obama does not grant - ignorance of them - the goal of "destruction "organization Daash highest priority. In the Middle East the dynamic and unstable and uncertain, it may not remain current America's allies beside it tomorrow, but the organization will inevitably Daash if the schedule followed by the US administration has not changed.
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