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Realistic approach towards economic problem
9/30/2015 0:00
Dr.. Abrihi Ahmed Ali
was the average daily crude oil exports except for Kurdistan 3.1 million barrels per day of July and August 2015. Data and Brent oil price of $ 49 and west of Texas $ 47 a barrel, almost in September 22. When the increase in exports to 3.35 million b / d, the price of Iraqi oil to $ 45, the value of exports for the year 2016 almost 55 billion dollars, the equivalent of 64 trillion dinars, and at a price of $ 50 a barrel estimate rises to $ 60 billion, equivalent to 71 trillion Iraqi dinars at the current official exchange . With the addition of revenue from non-oil and borrowing to finance the deficit between 20 to 25 trillion dinars becomes the roof top to spend 100 trillion dinars in Iraq except Kurdistan. But this ceiling involves a degree of risk and the best review and refine proposals allocations on 90 trillion dinars. And monitor the change of oil prices and non-oil revenues and opportunities for deficit financing and the facts demand for foreign currency during the year and adjust the budget accordingly whole.
There is no doubt that the foreign currency from oil supplier shortage (the balance of external payments), which is reflected in the drain more international reserves of the Central Bank deficit is variable crucial in the whole system. If the private sector demand for foreign currency and / or decreased increased the Ministry of Finance, including sales to the Central Bank widening expanse finance the deficit from home and brings the ceiling permitted to spend.
It is well known that restricting government spending leads to curtail aggregate demand on the total of goods and services, and this factor drives towards the reduction of economic activity, unemployment has increased more or less.
If payment of the investment activity of the private sector has a compensatory effect commensurate with the size of the possible increase in that activity. But may not be exaggerating too much from this angle because the private sector investments usually moving, towards distribution and service activities in most of them, including the transport, trade, housing, tourism and other services. And the expansion of those activities generate more income and demand for goods, mostly imported, Vidguet again on the balance of external payments, a weak point in the current situation.
The fragility of the economic situation logical to stumble or development stopped for decades as a result of ago, which led to the expansion of the economy on a small base of agricultural and industrial production. And if history repeats itself after the decline of the oil resource and the depletion of central bank reserves the end of 1983, the government relied on external borrowing, and the interior of the banks and the Central Bank, even foreign debt reached $ 82 billion at the end 1988 and provided years of siege, later, an accurate description of the economy Iraq when stripped from the oil supplier when people arrived in our country end the famine.
Since 2003 was promoted enthusiastically new direction is that private foreign investment and the business sector, in light of a market economy, will guarantee the economic prosperity and development and if this putative process being fully spontaneously !. And the status of the economy that the output of agriculture and mining of non-oil manufacturing industry in 2014 is estimated at less than 20 trillion dinars, the lowest half of the salaries and pension payments to employees of the State.
In other words, is not strong enough agriculture and industry now and for the next three years to increase production so as to help reduce imports or exports increasing amounts of importance because of the low primary situation. As they were on this case and is not expected to contribute to the financing of public spending even equivalent to the amount of the subsidy of loans and support for grain and other prices. And because the resources from all sources become limited austerity indisputable It is better to trim spending in the context of the reform of the state apparatus through the reconstruction job on the foundation and the principle of cost - effectiveness. In addition to this endeavor system radically reconsider how to set out the government's investment in them.
With the realization that the political noise and violence are incompatible elements to form a suitable environment for the development of the national economy on the right track, but insist on cope with this disability is the most rational position. To this end, and despite various pretexts and what might be said, the solution in direct from now laying the necessary introductions expanded for the growth and accelerated centered manufacturing remains.
In the short term it is useful not distracting resources and efforts in addressing poverty and sufficiency only to take the family foundation of the policies of the social economy. At the start we suggest space definition that contains poor families to those that do not enter salary from the state, not a member or retired policemen, to investigate the poor in this group after excluding the better off they are the majority, and this evidence very clearly commensurate with the administrative capabilities of the state in Rahenha. As for unemployment benefits and social security for all and attention to young people, women and children to talk about this is postponed to an appropriate time. This is because the clarity and operational focus and the intent of the utmost importance for economic policy.
Tackle unemployment, phenomenon and convincing,
require added productivity potential
to generate real jobs productivity allow sufficient income for a decent standard of living. It is impossible to establish a productive energies of capitalist accumulation without any investment in Iraq funded national savings. It is among the intended expanded and accelerated growth, which centered manufacturing. In the social-economic policy which is based in her family she cared for mainly unemployed in those poor families and not everyone because the potential is limited.
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9/30/2015 0:00
Dr.. Abrihi Ahmed Ali
was the average daily crude oil exports except for Kurdistan 3.1 million barrels per day of July and August 2015. Data and Brent oil price of $ 49 and west of Texas $ 47 a barrel, almost in September 22. When the increase in exports to 3.35 million b / d, the price of Iraqi oil to $ 45, the value of exports for the year 2016 almost 55 billion dollars, the equivalent of 64 trillion dinars, and at a price of $ 50 a barrel estimate rises to $ 60 billion, equivalent to 71 trillion Iraqi dinars at the current official exchange . With the addition of revenue from non-oil and borrowing to finance the deficit between 20 to 25 trillion dinars becomes the roof top to spend 100 trillion dinars in Iraq except Kurdistan. But this ceiling involves a degree of risk and the best review and refine proposals allocations on 90 trillion dinars. And monitor the change of oil prices and non-oil revenues and opportunities for deficit financing and the facts demand for foreign currency during the year and adjust the budget accordingly whole.
There is no doubt that the foreign currency from oil supplier shortage (the balance of external payments), which is reflected in the drain more international reserves of the Central Bank deficit is variable crucial in the whole system. If the private sector demand for foreign currency and / or decreased increased the Ministry of Finance, including sales to the Central Bank widening expanse finance the deficit from home and brings the ceiling permitted to spend.
It is well known that restricting government spending leads to curtail aggregate demand on the total of goods and services, and this factor drives towards the reduction of economic activity, unemployment has increased more or less.
If payment of the investment activity of the private sector has a compensatory effect commensurate with the size of the possible increase in that activity. But may not be exaggerating too much from this angle because the private sector investments usually moving, towards distribution and service activities in most of them, including the transport, trade, housing, tourism and other services. And the expansion of those activities generate more income and demand for goods, mostly imported, Vidguet again on the balance of external payments, a weak point in the current situation.
The fragility of the economic situation logical to stumble or development stopped for decades as a result of ago, which led to the expansion of the economy on a small base of agricultural and industrial production. And if history repeats itself after the decline of the oil resource and the depletion of central bank reserves the end of 1983, the government relied on external borrowing, and the interior of the banks and the Central Bank, even foreign debt reached $ 82 billion at the end 1988 and provided years of siege, later, an accurate description of the economy Iraq when stripped from the oil supplier when people arrived in our country end the famine.
Since 2003 was promoted enthusiastically new direction is that private foreign investment and the business sector, in light of a market economy, will guarantee the economic prosperity and development and if this putative process being fully spontaneously !. And the status of the economy that the output of agriculture and mining of non-oil manufacturing industry in 2014 is estimated at less than 20 trillion dinars, the lowest half of the salaries and pension payments to employees of the State.
In other words, is not strong enough agriculture and industry now and for the next three years to increase production so as to help reduce imports or exports increasing amounts of importance because of the low primary situation. As they were on this case and is not expected to contribute to the financing of public spending even equivalent to the amount of the subsidy of loans and support for grain and other prices. And because the resources from all sources become limited austerity indisputable It is better to trim spending in the context of the reform of the state apparatus through the reconstruction job on the foundation and the principle of cost - effectiveness. In addition to this endeavor system radically reconsider how to set out the government's investment in them.
With the realization that the political noise and violence are incompatible elements to form a suitable environment for the development of the national economy on the right track, but insist on cope with this disability is the most rational position. To this end, and despite various pretexts and what might be said, the solution in direct from now laying the necessary introductions expanded for the growth and accelerated centered manufacturing remains.
In the short term it is useful not distracting resources and efforts in addressing poverty and sufficiency only to take the family foundation of the policies of the social economy. At the start we suggest space definition that contains poor families to those that do not enter salary from the state, not a member or retired policemen, to investigate the poor in this group after excluding the better off they are the majority, and this evidence very clearly commensurate with the administrative capabilities of the state in Rahenha. As for unemployment benefits and social security for all and attention to young people, women and children to talk about this is postponed to an appropriate time. This is because the clarity and operational focus and the intent of the utmost importance for economic policy.
Tackle unemployment, phenomenon and convincing,
require added productivity potential
to generate real jobs productivity allow sufficient income for a decent standard of living. It is impossible to establish a productive energies of capitalist accumulation without any investment in Iraq funded national savings. It is among the intended expanded and accelerated growth, which centered manufacturing. In the social-economic policy which is based in her family she cared for mainly unemployed in those poor families and not everyone because the potential is limited.
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