2015-10-06
Wrote: Hussein Fawzi across experts and specialists in the financial, economic and oil affairs expressed concern about the nature of the 2016 budget, as the budget calculation, not economic, as well as it contains the same problems that were in the previous budgets, those related to oil the relationship with the Kurdistan Regional final accounts that have not been particularly presented during the previous years as a major flaw in the implementation of the budget by about a year. the difficulty of achieving the price of oil Estimated In expanded seminar organized by the "Institute for the progress of policy development" in collaboration with the "Association of private banks" and "the Iraqi Businessmen Union" and "Iraqi Business Council" to discuss 2016 budget, participants at the seminar expressed their fear of lack of access to price and quantity of the specific production, what will cause new burdens on the budget. And participated in the symposium Iraqi Central Bank Governor d. On the Keywords and financial advisor to the Prime Minister Dr. appearance of Mohammed Saleh, as well as oil expert Fouad Qassem Prince and a group of experts in various fields. Budget reflects the dominance of the traditional bureaucratic thinking and in the intervention initiated by the Attorney d. Mehdi al-Hafez head of the Institute of progress for policies development seminar, pointed out that the public budget is an essential tool in the financial policy of the state and is gaining on added significance because of the deterioration of the financial situation and the continuation of rent-seeking economy dominant on the public finances of the state, noting that the preparation of the budget has always been is a complex problem for Iraq, His promise honest picture of the dominance of the traditional bureaucratic thinking on the financial affairs of the country. He called for the need for correction and bring the budget economic vision guiding the overall government and private events in a coherent and sober context at the same time. He said Hafiz to a group of gaps in next year's budget, including poor financial resources by about stark, as the oil is no longer able to meet the basic needs of the country Because of the collapse of prices, and an uncertain future for the oil markets in the world. He warned the former Minister of Planning to determine the price of a barrel to balance next year by 45 dollars is not realistic, as prices are expected to fall to less than $ 40. He noted another problem facing the budget is the nature of the relationship with the province of Kurdistan, a political and economic aspects of the relationship, calling for the provision of the conditions for the resolution of all the problems with the region and the development of a fair formula for the distribution of resources. The absence of the final Almoisanat criticized Hafiz surprising lack of commitment to the principles of the Constitution on the submission of the final accounts of what constitutes an imbalance significant in terms of business practices, and called on the government to clarify its position with regard to loans contained in the budget, and whether there are guarantees for these loans accept reasonable financial terms. There are also many details related to the assignments for the various economic sectors, including what is the basis of respect of people's lives and well-being, and provide the necessary services to the community, but the budget was exceptional and discounted because of the financial crisis and the conflict with Daash and its consequences Aalmtaddh. Two prices for the disbursement of the dollar and suggested Hafiz that they can be two prices for disbursement in Iraq to take into account national need which is characterized by the presence of more than a social and economic category, which justifies idea to have there special exchange needs basic such as grain, meat and medicine price, the price of a more general covers goods remaining non-core. Hafiz promised Parliament a major obstacle because it is governed by consensus, and this is can not be achieved and the guide inability to pass important laws, including the oil and gas law, which is an important anchor of the pillars of the general budget. The appearance of Mohammed Saleh: budget without speech sets out goals and spoke financial advisor to Prime Minister Dr. appearance of Mohammed Saleh, describing the budget as devoid of rhetoric set the desired objectives, surrounded by circumstances unusual rate of growth in the Iraqi economy fell to less than 2%, and inflation rates are rates not to exceed 2% as well, and that the price speculative for a barrel of oil is $ 45 and a ceiling export up to 3.6 Mlaynen barrels per day with total production of 4.2 million barrels per day. Saleh said This negative budget to address the economic situation of the country, and this negative will turn into a positive aspect through retrenchment and reduce the deficit, they have been reduced by 6 trillion dinars from the previous year's budget, as it was 119 trillion, becoming a 113 trillion dinars in 2016, and by the inability of up to 26 percent, after it identified the budget deficit to 29 trillion dinars size, which is identical to the size of the investment budget ratio, and the region's share of 17 per cent deducted, including sovereign expenses and receive the province monthly 1.2 trillion dinars per month. public debt is worrying Saleh pointed out the public debt rate rose to 14 %, down from 8% per cent in the previous budget, and he said that the external debt is not great because of (15.5) billion dollars, including debts for 52 countries outside the Paris Club, including Jordan, Turkey, and the Gulf states of the four, and Egypt, and the Netherlands , Brazil, and confirmed that it if we take the debt of Gulf states, which announced that it Atefitha within the Paris Club agreement. But on the ground, something that did not happen it would be the size of the debt (22.5) billion dollars which is to Aadao to worry as some talking, because the global standard of public debt is up to 60 per cent of GDP volume is normal. If we calculated the size of Iraq's debt will constitute 36 per cent of the gross domestic product, a proportion that is very natural and this ratio represents the external and internal debt in sizes up to 37 billion dollars .. There are no state oil companies late entitlements and Saleh revealed that there was no state of their financial benefits for companies oil after it has been paying these dues, amounting to $ 33 billion .. pointing out the inability to stop dealing with these companies because the country needs to develop oil fields .. praising the policy of the Central Bank of Iraq in the management of monetary policy in the country and describing it policy adaptive correct and realistic to control the economic downturn and provide the liquidity required by the adoption of what is known as the School of Banking .. expressing optimism that the next budget, which came in the framework of the constitutional timings will be able to cope with the financial crisis, although they are free of the economic discourse is clear. prices are going down to 2020 from his part, the oil expert Fouad Qasim Prince expressed concern about the nature of the oil relationship with the Kurdistan region after the proven experience that the region has not and will not abide by the agreements with Baghdad, and said the sale of Iraqi oil prices are not fixed in the months of May and June the past the sale price is $ 55 a barrel, while decreased in the month of August to $ 40.60. He said the projections show a surplus by 3.5 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to the Iraqi export is estimated to balance the 2016 size, pointing out that Iran's entry to next year, the oil market after the lifting of sanctions would contribute to increase of one million barrels per day to the world market and therefore, this market will not be able to absorb the oil increases in the display market until the end of 2019 or early 2020, and the meaning of this that prices will continue to fall. He said the prince that under the oil market data world we have to put a price very speculative and realistic is that has been developed to balance in 2016 of $ 45 a barrel .. Indicating that we will be lucky if a situation the price of $ 40 a barrel and we were able to sell oil at that price for the possibility that prices fall to below this figure .. warning from Saudi Arabia's oil policy which is trying through flooding the global market process by raising production rates to more than 10 million barrels a day, trying to sabotage the Iraqi economy and the Iranian and Russian, as well as Venezuelan .. calling on the Iraqi government not to be dragged into this destructive policy, but the Oil Ministry to take a strong position, especially after the Venezuelan position announced in which the price war began and each State to protect its economy from collapse. Governor of the Central Bank: Showing Aahdja budget for evaluation, said Governor of the Central Bank d. On the Keywords number of points on the work of the bank and its relationship with the government and the role it should play in supporting development in the country with the need to preserve the independence guaranteed by the Constitution, noting that the display budget still Aahdja evaluation about flour and stand on the merits of things, and proposed the development of specific supplements in the budget to give a clear picture of reality, for example, public sector companies are all show and number more than 80 companies and one number only is the net profit or loss for these companies, and often have net profit because of including the Ministry of oil companies, while 80% of them lost, so he put Supplements will show us every company and achieved a profit or loss to stand on a national decision to address the situation of these companies that drain a large part of the state budget, and the transfer of funds granted to these companies to loans to defend these companies itself, but in the budget of 2016 the Ministry of Finance decided to consider these loans grants to the futility of loans. not to apply some of the items and said the central bank governor that there is a lot of material included in the budget without taking out, including settling accounts between the center and the region, we know that the general budget of the previous years did not accommodate all the allocations and there are 21 billion to the Centre on region Vtrbak economic and financial situation. and the relationships that the next budget is based on the inability of 29 trillion dinars, can not achieve about 19 trillion of it, if the budget were a deficit of more than 10 trillion will face a problem in covering this deficit or gets as happened in the current year budget by cutting Funding for the allocations made in the budget, and this represents a confusion of planning. He explained that the inability to finance the deficit is structured to get 7 trillion dinars from foreign bonds, it is difficult to market these bonds are a new experience, the aim of which are two things first is to enter the global market and achieve the second of Iraq's credit rating. There was a failure in this aspect over the past years .. but it is important that we put the base in this area .. indicating that the expected interest from these bonds is 10.5% which is a very high ratio of a bank does not allow it. He Keywords to the existence of a strange paragraph in the budget is to add 5.9 trillion dinars to finance projects on credit and this process distortionary Projects to Atndz one year .. indicating that the plug is to issue internal bonds at a cost of 7 trillion dinars by the central bank solutions .. explaining that this amount is too large in an environment not used to such actions and not to the existence of trading market such bonds and can therefore be marketed Trliunin only and not 7 trillion. to maximize revenues and cut spending and the central bank governor said that the solutions and treatments lies in the more pressure expenses except salaries, and to reconsider revenues, there is a deficiency in taxes and fees process need real reform and correction through the control of customs duties, and this is a big problem. Those who have access to resources they dedicated access to more resources than you get the government and called for Asnvad all options, including the Real Estate State which are not taken to invest about properly can be an important resource for the economy. change the exchange rate hurts the citizen He Keywords that the central bank is approaching the economic landscape and stimulate the economy, and there is direct coordination between the Bank and the government, pointing out that a review of the exchange rate must be accompanied by study and thoroughly to find out what are the effects of such a measure, which would be great his influence on the citizen through the loss of his ability purchasing, importing country because we Changing the exchange rate will be accompanied by rising prices and rising inflation and this is not an option to address the current situation is sufficient citizen suffering from problems. He noted the difficulty of controlling if we put two prices for the exchange which is opening up new doors for corruption. He complained Keywords from the case of indifference by specialized in dealing with the Central Bank initiative included lending to the private sector 6 trillion dinars banks, despite significant flexibility shown by the bank and lower interest imposed ratios which does not exceed the 2 per cent. Raed Fahmi: the need for the completion of real development and described the Minister of Science and Technology, former Raed Fahmi, General Coordinator of Civil stream democratic scene panel gloomy, and that the problem lies in the absence of sectors of the basic development of the real economy (agriculture - industry - tourism .. buildings and services - transport, etc. ..). He stressed the need to start from the economic long-term vision without focusing on political problems because they are the problems will be resolved and overcome, adding that the talk about reform without a real and radical solutions does not make sense, the real development is absent either in the center or the Kurdistan region are born serious repercussions, including the migration of young people, the solution is to bring the real economy, warning of the weight of the public debt and the debt under the circumstances through which Iraq is a disaster for the lack of guarantees in how to behave with money. lack of transparency and failure to approve the oil law weakens the budget and former Secretary of Water Resources and adviser to President Dr. Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid between in his speech that Iraq's budget is the budget accounts and not contain any economic feasibility of which must be for each paragraph of the budget, and carry the Governments of center and the region responsible for the weakness resulting from the failure to approve oil and gas law, which he will organize the relationship between the two parties instead of these oral agreements Budget and unconstitutional. He expressed Rashid surprise at the lack of a sufficient number of experts to develop and implement the appropriate decisions, stayed economic policy are subject to personal and party decisions, especially in the region, which suffers from a lack of transparency as is the case at the center as well and this is what held things up. decline in gross domestic product , he said economist Behnam Elias Boutros gross domestic product at current prices fell by 24 per cent as the decline in the same proportion at the price of the dollar either fixed prices of oil rose by 7.4 and other activities declined by 13.7 per cent .. Indicating that the gross domestic product at constant prices fell by 2.9 per cent .. wondering not deserve such indicators reconsider the price of the dollar in order to achieve a balance? He called that every article of the budget supplement materials containing details of the achievement of this article and the results and impact .. With regard to the budget and investment Peter calling on the government to take this aspect seriously by moving the 6088 investment projects and reconsider these projects and try to reduce the amount be can be implemented .. Lama state-owned enterprises can be converted to cooperative societies Fajs_khastha is difficult. the absence of the private sector and pointed head of Iraqi businessmen Union Reza Ragheb Blibl that all the previous budgets until the budget in 2016 was not without its shortcomings and gaps, most notably the absence of the production budget completely, which impacted negatively on industrial activity in the country and the deterioration of the domestic industry and crush domestic product importer .. Indicating that this imbalance resulting from the lack of consultation with the private sector in the process of preparing the budget and economic decision-making about the year that was born a lot of problems. He praised the economic expert, Dr. Ali al-Husseini of the private banks association and the Bank of Assyria initiative Iraqi Central Bank lending to the private sector included 6 trillion dinars to rotate the wheel of the economy and reduce unemployment rates .. calling them leading the initiative in light of the current circumstances in which the banking sector is suffering from a lack of credit bureaus and the absence of Loan Guarantee Act.
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