October 18th, 2015
At a seminar of the Institute for the progress of development policies masters of realism and candor
BAGHDAD - New Morning:
at a symposium marked by realism and candor and attended by a large gathering of senior financiers, economists and businessmen. Guest «Institute progress of development policies« Dr. Ali Mohsen Keywords Governor of the Central Bank who gave a detailed explanation on the subject and then after the economic expert, Dr. Ahmed Ali Alabreha.
Began MP d. Mehdi al-Hafez Prime «progress Institute for Development Policy« who ran the seminar by talking about the difference of opinion on the subject: there are those who believe that the national need not require the continuation of the so-called auctions, but must be handled and it is free restrictions. The anti sees the opposite opinion and calls to stick to auctions and to provide the necessary facilities for the conduct of the process. And we have to stop at the experiences of neighboring countries and operations.
He asked Hafiz for the exchange rate, which raises several problematic. How can we describe the process required to determine the exchange rate? Will has to do with the economic and financial situation of the state?
he said Hafiz should explain the different aspects of this process so that it can maintain a cash track in the state of non-questioning or hearsay is intact.
Then accept it, Mr. Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Dr. Ali Mohsen Keywords current situation and future tasks carried out by the central bank and that the entire aimed at finding a fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq is consistent with the economic trends of the state.
He went Keywords saying that the job of the central bank of achieving exchange rate stability and to maintain the general level of prices and curb inflation, and the nature of the Reclining Iraqi economy on oil resources and therefore TTM dollar makes the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, including an interactive relationship necessitated by the nature of the revenue and expenditure of the monetization of the dollar. Therefore, the central bank exercised important roles in the process of financing of the current expenditure of the general budget of the state where the central bank buys dollars from the Ministry of Finance to cover the needs of the Iraqi dinar by allocations required in the general budget. And the financing of imports of the commercial sector, where the dollar selling process means other hand pull the dinar from the local market and this process helps the central bank to curb money supply and reduce the resort to printing more currency.
He Keywords that such activity is not a key central banks in the world and it is very rare that The central bank is selling the window but the form of the Iraqi economy dictated this task. As the central bank's job is to intervene when there is an imbalance in the exchange rate as in the European Union.
He Keywords to the issue of the cash reserve, which is the path of controversy and debate where stressed that the reserve is the difference between what buys the central bank and what sells excess and the difference goes to the international reserves of the Central Bank and the function of the reserve is the funding and coverage of imports and remittances other either foreign currency reserves is the difference between the dollar sales of the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank and the central bank sales to the private sector. He stressed that the presence of the adequacy of the reserve criteria, such as coverage of imports for a period of 6 months and cover the local currency and coverage of external debt (annual).
He pointed Keywords to grandparents important rules are that govern the process of selling the dollar to cover imports of personal and transfers of the private sector as the law of the Central Bank Article (28) and guidance International Monetary economic system fund in accordance with the Constitution and the law to combat money laundering (the investigation of money) sources.
He said relationships to real solutions such as a purchase or a simple sale is conditional (cash and futures) and to require banks to apply the principle «know your customer« The application of anti-money laundering and terrorism financing law.
Keywords Turning to the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar options such as:
• raise the exchange rate of the dollar by 10% (1,300 dinars) provides the general budget of 5 trillion dinars.
• raise the exchange rate of the dollar by 20% (1,400 dinars) provides the general budget of 9 trillion dinars.
• option reduction option easy but it does not help to repair structural problems.
• reduction of the local currency is good for exporting countries to stimulate exports.
• Iraq importing country, and the reduction harm the purchasing power of citizens with limited income.
(especially since the effect is doubly on prices)
• in light of the economic downturn increases devaluation of deflation and unemployment.
• can taxes can play an important role in the funding and nature of the check of justice and balance without compromising the low-income segments, and achieve economic goals, social and financial.
Then after Dr. Ahmed Ali Alabreha on the main indicators for the development of the Iraqi economy and its course is expected in the near future and to identify the factors affecting the demand for foreign currency, and the role of the exchange rate and other variables to select.
and between Abrihi difficult to reduce private sector demand for foreign in the current scope of the exchange rate and income levels currency. And that the lack of the national economy to the productive base and diverse that can supplement the national market alternatives to imports of goods and services adds other restrictions and weakens the effectiveness of policies aiming to tackle the problem.
He Abrihi the other side of the private sector was unable to contribute to the display of foreign currency, as well as government non-oil sector, and the policy of foreign investment also did not succeed in adding a tributary albeit to a limited extent, and faced Iraq interest on the loans in the international market prices unbearable.
As a result, crude oil remains the only source of foreign currency, and must move serious and responsible about real economic development to pay a danger for Iraq.
Discussion :
d. Abdul Latif Rashid, Senior Advisor to the President. He questioned the independence of the Central Bank. He stressed that in several meetings of the Council of Ministers made a request to the Central Bank to support the budget but was rejected. He asked how that is where the measurement currency, the real price?
Economic expert contrary goldsmith confirmed the existence of problematic purchasing power and production process in Iraq do not exist in all sectors and stressed that based on the exchange rate to the productivity base.
He asked the jeweler Is it possible through the coordination of monetary policy and Finance in determining the funding of exchange operations for 4) or 3) a year projects through state institutions projects are working and productive?
Sabah al-Jubouri of Bank Al-Mansour stressed that the customs tariff has not been applied so far from north to south.
economic expert on behalf of Antoine said there were contradictions in all state departments. And the central bank supervision is weak and should be referred to the death of beneficiaries for people from the process of selling the dollar and went full punishment of the Bank.
Mr. Chairman men willing Blibl Iraqi Business Federation. He stressed that the money smuggled out of Iraq under the pretext of investing is the way illegal. He blessed step launched by the central bank launched a 5 trillion dinars to revitalize the Iraqi economy. But this step you need to follow up and monitor very careful about. He stressed that there is no information confirming where they are negotiating with the applicant on the loan to get a percentage of the loan.
D. Ahmed Ali . He said the Iraqi Central Bank interest rate of exchange and currency auction did not give full attention to unemployment. He questioned the developmental side Is his presence in the role of the central bank?
Professor Ismail Zayer, editor of the new morning newspaper. He noted that the basic functions of the Central Bank is not money laundering, but is the smuggling of money in Iraq in particular.
He noted that the customs at border crossing points does not allow passengers to bring the maximum amount of 10 000 dollars but while you go to any banking shop that converts the amount of $ 50 million. The question is what the central bank's position on this process? Do we need a law to amend the amount of $ 10 000 at border crossing points?
Professor Najib Mohiuddin. He pointed to several questions, including what are the reasons that made the fixed foreign currency in ancient times? And he asked how the forecast increase in oil prices in the future and on what grounds it was based on? Why dropped? He noted that the situation is normal when dodged a lot of foreign currency out of the country.
D. Ikram Aqeel raised several questions, including: What about the statements in connection with the existence of fictitious companies is not registered? What about the various import that can be met at home for some commodities, which provides currency conversion in coordination with the Ministry of Commerce? What about the Iraqi Central Bank was distributed to banks and European reserves while he was a depositor in the US Federal Reserve? I've mentioned the rule of the governor that there is exaggeration in the presence of international reserves in Iraq, according to the IMF report. The question is why not flowing alongside them in the incorporation of local projects are diverse and international?
Businessman Abbas Shamara stressed on the necessity of the development of important study on the $ 5 trillion dinars unleashed by the Iraqi Central Bank to stimulate the Iraqi economy and stand on how to use and distribution of this amount. And wondered whether Iraq has completed the subject of the relationship with ASEAN Bank?
Banking expert Samir Alnasiri pointed to the development of a five-year plan or decimal includes ideas put forward by Dr. Ahmed Alabreha with a serious mechanisms of monetary policy so that the economy is the foundation, not the exchange rate.
Legal expert Adel al-Lamy stressed that the The real problem is corruption and corruption are the biggest operations through government outlets.
Banking expert Mahmoud conciliator. He stressed that the central bank under a lot of pressure and pointed to the possibility of return to work and documentary credits wondered about the problem by making price the exchange rate freely determined by factors of supply and demand?
Expert economic Behnam Elias Boutros said that the main problem is at the macro level. Domestic output real total (constant prices) declined in 2015 for the year 2014 by -2.4%, while the corresponding oil fell by -44% note of the other activities that the response rate (non-oil) to oil output is very small so it must be here College strategy to accommodate all the problems of the economy are complementary. Professor Abdul Amir morning. He noted that the central bank is one of the most important state institutions in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policy, and that is the duty of the Central Bank review of its monetary policy and finance.
He pointed out that the exchange rate and auction currency of the work of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank to monitor and work policies of the country's strong economy policy depends on agriculture , industry and trade.
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