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Is the new governor of the Central Bank of Egypt will be able to calm the currency crisis and stop the bleeding of foreign reserves?
OCTOBER 23, 2015
Cairo (Reuters) - soon resigned Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, Hisham Ramez, from office until the phones bells began ticking for exchanging bankers congratulations on the man's departure, which they say he refused to reverse course even after Egypt turned quickly from a cash crisis towards the crisis in the trade.
and revived the renewal of the blood of the highest banking authority in the country hopes to change imminent in monetary policy, which has failed to achieve the stability of the Egyptian pound, and angered importers, and became coupled with someone Ramiz, who led the restrictions imposed on the currency to the thirst of some business activities to the dollar.
seen as his successor, Tarek Amer , whose tenure begins four years in November 27, as an active and cooperative director is credited with transforming the fortunes of the largest bank in the country.
He welcomed the bankers and importers to declare President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as they feel more comfortable towards Amer friendly style , they say that taking office gives the central bank an opportunity to change the existing policies without loss of credibility.
He said one banker involved in the Treasury Department in a Egyptian banks «are not in the right direction, and we are in a difficult position needs to ideas from outside the box ... There is an atmosphere of optimism in the market that Amer will change some controversial policies pursued by Ramez.
»He took Ramez post of Governor of the Central Bank in February 2013, when the Muslim Brotherhood government is struggling to bring stability to the economy was severely affected due to the political turmoil that followed the popular uprising in 2011 overthrew the former Hosni Mubarak, President .
The foreign exchange reserves at the time $ 13.6 billion, less than half of the reserve that existed before the uprising in 2011, which is not enough to cover the import needs of the country from abroad for three months.
The army removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power three months after taking Ramez office, Soon, Egypt has received billions of dollars in aid from Gulf Arab states, which opposes the Islamic movement.
He made the money in the form of grants, loans, cash and deposits at the central bank, and products for the energy imported by Egypt from abroad.
However, the foreign exchange reserves recorded a simple than it was, up until took Ramez position, it reached $ 16.3 billion in September / September.
The reason for this is the decline in tourism and investment movement, and the allocation of the central bank a lot of money to keep the Egyptian pound at a level of strength, analysts say it is artificial.
faced Central Bank increased pressure for devaluation, While recovered the black market to broadcast life is capable of commercial activities to get the dollar through official channels.
The cut Ramez value of the Egyptian pound in January and February, before the local currency stable remain at 7.53 pounds to the dollar until July, when allowed her to get off again. The latest wave of reduction this month, where he became the dollar is currently 7.93 pounds.
But bankers say that moving the price of the currency is very limited, very late, and graded very well, and it seems he made reluctantly. One said «No one knows with thinking. It is hazy.
»Bankers say Ramiz is thinking focused on eliminating the black market, even if this is at the expense of the economy moving heavy pace in a bumpy road towards a return to economic growth.
It seemed supported in one day Ramez efforts to stabilize the pound , re-evaluate their positions in February, when the man introduced banking restrictions included the imposition of the ceiling on deposits dollar at 50 thousand dollars a month, which is spent on the black market, which is no longer in front of the commercial activities of a place to deposit dollars obtained unofficially.
These banks restrictions also forced to provide dollars to finance imports of strategic goods, including some food commodities, and provide it to provide dollars to buy goods is necessary, which raised the ire of importers of luxury goods.
He defended Ramiz strongly approach says is aimed at optimum utilization of available from dollars in Egypt. He said in an interview published in the newspaper (Al-Ahram Hebdo) this month «businessmen refuse to recognize that the country is facing a shortage of the dollar, although the priorities lay.» He added «foreign exchange reserves decline, and Egypt, like every country undergoing economic position similar to them to determine priorities .
»Egyptian exports fell 19 percent in the first nine months of 2015, at a time when some working in the manufacturing sector companies says that the restrictions on the currency has made the issue of opening of letters of credit to import some raw materials difficult.
said Tarek Abaza, CEO Company Naeem Holding brokerage «everyone has a problem with the dollar, and they make this problem the issue of a personal dispute with Ramiz.» He added «They say always Hisham Ramez eliminates a business, and he was trying to eliminate the black market judged on the economy ... would be (I have market) very much hope Tarek Amer.
»Bankers say Amer, who has worked with« Citibank »and» Bank of America », and previously served as deputy central bank governor, has team spirit and he was better able to build strong relationships with global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Some say that his thinking more liberal compared to Brahms, and at the very least, the bankers expect a relationship characterized by further cooperation.
banker said work with Aamir in the Egyptian-owned National Bank of state «Amer was always listening to those who work with him and examines the views of experts. It's a good listener is confident his men and not of the kind that just gives orders.
»The National Bank of Egypt lacks vitality, before taking Amer his presidency in 2008 in the midst of the global financial crisis. The Amer liquidate riskier assets, and the restructured bank raised the management level, according to the bank the bank was working at the time. And when he left Amer Bank in 2013 was Egypt's Al Ahly one of the largest banks that profit in the region.
The change Egypt's monetary policy as a measure to balance his political sensitivity will not be very direct.
And in front of Amer tough decisions have to be taken, as the Central Bank of Egypt faces pressure to reduce the value of the pound , especially since the sharp fall of the currencies of emerging markets this year. But many are opposed to such a move, fearing it - though it relaxes the Merchandise Trade activities raise inflation, in a country that depends on imports and the lives of millions of the population lives on subsistence level.
Repeatedly on this point and stressed Ramez, and received support for her from the top. And when he chose Sisi Amer to take over the mission stressed the need to give priority to simple, through the control of inflation, and to ensure the provision of food, medicine and fuel for them, which will be approved by many Egyptians in the street.
At the same time, invite some business to link the pound a basket of currencies weighted to trade, or float the currency, carries with it significant risks.
Changes bold may be unpalatable in Egypt, as the government seeks stability, and not wish to repeat the scene of street protests that helped topple two presidents in three years.
He said Angus Blair, head of Institute «Sagnt» - an economic research center based in Cairo, «The truth is that Aamir wants economic system more liberal in Egypt, which Egypt needs exactly, to push economic growth to higher levels.»
He added «predecessor ... was very cautious about what you need Egypt, and I think that Mr. Amer will take the most difficult decisions that you need Egypt, to inspire confidence in the hearts of the private sector and investors to support investment.
»The intervention Ramez in minute detail, including product pricing, has reduced his popularity in the banking sector.
Bankers say that he was giving orders, and did not welcome the other opinion, and it was sometimes chides bankers prominent in front of their peers, and creates an environment afraid Experts from speaking freely.
But others say that, regardless of the qualifications of Amer, the few people who know how he planned to address the crisis, they say that monetary policy is complex and larger than that carried out by one man.
He said one banker «anyone solves Hisham Ramez place when it takes office will not soon be facing the same criticism».
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
OCTOBER 23, 2015
Cairo (Reuters) - soon resigned Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, Hisham Ramez, from office until the phones bells began ticking for exchanging bankers congratulations on the man's departure, which they say he refused to reverse course even after Egypt turned quickly from a cash crisis towards the crisis in the trade.
and revived the renewal of the blood of the highest banking authority in the country hopes to change imminent in monetary policy, which has failed to achieve the stability of the Egyptian pound, and angered importers, and became coupled with someone Ramiz, who led the restrictions imposed on the currency to the thirst of some business activities to the dollar.
seen as his successor, Tarek Amer , whose tenure begins four years in November 27, as an active and cooperative director is credited with transforming the fortunes of the largest bank in the country.
He welcomed the bankers and importers to declare President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as they feel more comfortable towards Amer friendly style , they say that taking office gives the central bank an opportunity to change the existing policies without loss of credibility.
He said one banker involved in the Treasury Department in a Egyptian banks «are not in the right direction, and we are in a difficult position needs to ideas from outside the box ... There is an atmosphere of optimism in the market that Amer will change some controversial policies pursued by Ramez.
»He took Ramez post of Governor of the Central Bank in February 2013, when the Muslim Brotherhood government is struggling to bring stability to the economy was severely affected due to the political turmoil that followed the popular uprising in 2011 overthrew the former Hosni Mubarak, President .
The foreign exchange reserves at the time $ 13.6 billion, less than half of the reserve that existed before the uprising in 2011, which is not enough to cover the import needs of the country from abroad for three months.
The army removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power three months after taking Ramez office, Soon, Egypt has received billions of dollars in aid from Gulf Arab states, which opposes the Islamic movement.
He made the money in the form of grants, loans, cash and deposits at the central bank, and products for the energy imported by Egypt from abroad.
However, the foreign exchange reserves recorded a simple than it was, up until took Ramez position, it reached $ 16.3 billion in September / September.
The reason for this is the decline in tourism and investment movement, and the allocation of the central bank a lot of money to keep the Egyptian pound at a level of strength, analysts say it is artificial.
faced Central Bank increased pressure for devaluation, While recovered the black market to broadcast life is capable of commercial activities to get the dollar through official channels.
The cut Ramez value of the Egyptian pound in January and February, before the local currency stable remain at 7.53 pounds to the dollar until July, when allowed her to get off again. The latest wave of reduction this month, where he became the dollar is currently 7.93 pounds.
But bankers say that moving the price of the currency is very limited, very late, and graded very well, and it seems he made reluctantly. One said «No one knows with thinking. It is hazy.
»Bankers say Ramiz is thinking focused on eliminating the black market, even if this is at the expense of the economy moving heavy pace in a bumpy road towards a return to economic growth.
It seemed supported in one day Ramez efforts to stabilize the pound , re-evaluate their positions in February, when the man introduced banking restrictions included the imposition of the ceiling on deposits dollar at 50 thousand dollars a month, which is spent on the black market, which is no longer in front of the commercial activities of a place to deposit dollars obtained unofficially.
These banks restrictions also forced to provide dollars to finance imports of strategic goods, including some food commodities, and provide it to provide dollars to buy goods is necessary, which raised the ire of importers of luxury goods.
He defended Ramiz strongly approach says is aimed at optimum utilization of available from dollars in Egypt. He said in an interview published in the newspaper (Al-Ahram Hebdo) this month «businessmen refuse to recognize that the country is facing a shortage of the dollar, although the priorities lay.» He added «foreign exchange reserves decline, and Egypt, like every country undergoing economic position similar to them to determine priorities .
»Egyptian exports fell 19 percent in the first nine months of 2015, at a time when some working in the manufacturing sector companies says that the restrictions on the currency has made the issue of opening of letters of credit to import some raw materials difficult.
said Tarek Abaza, CEO Company Naeem Holding brokerage «everyone has a problem with the dollar, and they make this problem the issue of a personal dispute with Ramiz.» He added «They say always Hisham Ramez eliminates a business, and he was trying to eliminate the black market judged on the economy ... would be (I have market) very much hope Tarek Amer.
»Bankers say Amer, who has worked with« Citibank »and» Bank of America », and previously served as deputy central bank governor, has team spirit and he was better able to build strong relationships with global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Some say that his thinking more liberal compared to Brahms, and at the very least, the bankers expect a relationship characterized by further cooperation.
banker said work with Aamir in the Egyptian-owned National Bank of state «Amer was always listening to those who work with him and examines the views of experts. It's a good listener is confident his men and not of the kind that just gives orders.
»The National Bank of Egypt lacks vitality, before taking Amer his presidency in 2008 in the midst of the global financial crisis. The Amer liquidate riskier assets, and the restructured bank raised the management level, according to the bank the bank was working at the time. And when he left Amer Bank in 2013 was Egypt's Al Ahly one of the largest banks that profit in the region.
The change Egypt's monetary policy as a measure to balance his political sensitivity will not be very direct.
And in front of Amer tough decisions have to be taken, as the Central Bank of Egypt faces pressure to reduce the value of the pound , especially since the sharp fall of the currencies of emerging markets this year. But many are opposed to such a move, fearing it - though it relaxes the Merchandise Trade activities raise inflation, in a country that depends on imports and the lives of millions of the population lives on subsistence level.
Repeatedly on this point and stressed Ramez, and received support for her from the top. And when he chose Sisi Amer to take over the mission stressed the need to give priority to simple, through the control of inflation, and to ensure the provision of food, medicine and fuel for them, which will be approved by many Egyptians in the street.
At the same time, invite some business to link the pound a basket of currencies weighted to trade, or float the currency, carries with it significant risks.
Changes bold may be unpalatable in Egypt, as the government seeks stability, and not wish to repeat the scene of street protests that helped topple two presidents in three years.
He said Angus Blair, head of Institute «Sagnt» - an economic research center based in Cairo, «The truth is that Aamir wants economic system more liberal in Egypt, which Egypt needs exactly, to push economic growth to higher levels.»
He added «predecessor ... was very cautious about what you need Egypt, and I think that Mr. Amer will take the most difficult decisions that you need Egypt, to inspire confidence in the hearts of the private sector and investors to support investment.
»The intervention Ramez in minute detail, including product pricing, has reduced his popularity in the banking sector.
Bankers say that he was giving orders, and did not welcome the other opinion, and it was sometimes chides bankers prominent in front of their peers, and creates an environment afraid Experts from speaking freely.
But others say that, regardless of the qualifications of Amer, the few people who know how he planned to address the crisis, they say that monetary policy is complex and larger than that carried out by one man.
He said one banker «anyone solves Hisham Ramez place when it takes office will not soon be facing the same criticism».
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
