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A deficit of 39 billion dollars.. A specialist comments on international reports that warned of the “collapse of the Iraqi economy”
Economy |12-23-2023, 14:00 |
Baghdad today - Baghdad
Today, Saturday (December 23, 2023), economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi commented on the international reports issued by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank regarding the Iraqi economy. Al-Obaidi told “Baghdad Today” that
“there is ambiguity in the reports issued about the Iraqi economy, and
there is a statement from the International Monetary Fund that was not positive, but rather wanted to formulate the matter in a diplomatic way that is more positive.” He added,
"The second report was issued by the World Bank, which is an extensive report that talked about the various aspects of the Iraqi economy, pointed out its shortcomings, and mentioned some important information that if it is not taken seriously by the government, we will be facing a major and difficult challenge that may lead to the complete collapse of the Iraqi economy." The expert in economic affairs stated,
“The World Bank report stated that if Iraq wants to spend all sections of the 2024 budget, the average selling price of a barrel of Iraqi oil must not be less than 112 dollars, but if the current price rates continue, it will lead to a deficit of 39 dollars.”
One billion dollars will be covered from the reserves achieved from previous years in which Iraq achieved a surplus, specifically in 2022 and 2023.”
Earlier today, Saturday (December 23, 2023), economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi summarized 7 risks facing Iraq that came in the latest report of the International Monetary Fund.
Al-Marsoumi said in a clarification received by “Baghdad Today” that
“despite the positive signals included in the report of the International Monetary Fund experts after their visit to Iraq on December 19, 2023, which included a recovery in economic activity in Iraq and a decline in inflation rates, the report indicated in detail some risks.” Challenging the Iraqi economy.
He explained that the most important of these risks are:
First: The significant expansion of public finances within the framework of the effective three-year budget law imposes significant and important risks on the sustainability of the public finances and the external sector in the medium term.
Second: Exercising caution in public financial conditions and implementing structural reforms are considered extremely important factors in ensuring the protection of macroeconomic stability and sustainability, and achieving lasting and more comprehensive growth.
Third: The decline in oil production after the closure of the oil pipeline linking Iraq and Turkey, and the reduction in production at the request of the OPEC+ group, will work together to reduce the growth of the gross domestic product in the years 2023 and 2024.
Fourth: The public finance balance is expected to transform from a large surplus achieved in 2022 to a budget deficit in 2023. Experts expect the size of the government’s fiscal deficit to expand further in 2024, reflecting the full annual impact of budget measures.
Fifth: The significant expansion of public finances, including a fundamental increase in the numbers of members of the public sector and retirement, creates permanent requirements for public spending that will put pressure on public funds in the medium term.
Sixth: Mobilizing more non-oil revenues, containing the wage bill for government employees, and reforming the government retirement system. These measures must be supported by a move to a more targeted social safety net that works to provide better protection for vulnerable groups.
Seventh: The necessity of creating equal opportunities for the private sector by implementing reforms in banking and the electricity sector, reducing distortions in the labor market, and continuing to make efforts aimed at strengthening governance and reducing the spread of corruption.
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Economy |12-23-2023, 14:00 |
Baghdad today - Baghdad
Today, Saturday (December 23, 2023), economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi commented on the international reports issued by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank regarding the Iraqi economy. Al-Obaidi told “Baghdad Today” that
“there is ambiguity in the reports issued about the Iraqi economy, and
there is a statement from the International Monetary Fund that was not positive, but rather wanted to formulate the matter in a diplomatic way that is more positive.” He added,
"The second report was issued by the World Bank, which is an extensive report that talked about the various aspects of the Iraqi economy, pointed out its shortcomings, and mentioned some important information that if it is not taken seriously by the government, we will be facing a major and difficult challenge that may lead to the complete collapse of the Iraqi economy." The expert in economic affairs stated,
“The World Bank report stated that if Iraq wants to spend all sections of the 2024 budget, the average selling price of a barrel of Iraqi oil must not be less than 112 dollars, but if the current price rates continue, it will lead to a deficit of 39 dollars.”
One billion dollars will be covered from the reserves achieved from previous years in which Iraq achieved a surplus, specifically in 2022 and 2023.”
Earlier today, Saturday (December 23, 2023), economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi summarized 7 risks facing Iraq that came in the latest report of the International Monetary Fund.
Al-Marsoumi said in a clarification received by “Baghdad Today” that
“despite the positive signals included in the report of the International Monetary Fund experts after their visit to Iraq on December 19, 2023, which included a recovery in economic activity in Iraq and a decline in inflation rates, the report indicated in detail some risks.” Challenging the Iraqi economy.
He explained that the most important of these risks are:
First: The significant expansion of public finances within the framework of the effective three-year budget law imposes significant and important risks on the sustainability of the public finances and the external sector in the medium term.
Second: Exercising caution in public financial conditions and implementing structural reforms are considered extremely important factors in ensuring the protection of macroeconomic stability and sustainability, and achieving lasting and more comprehensive growth.
Third: The decline in oil production after the closure of the oil pipeline linking Iraq and Turkey, and the reduction in production at the request of the OPEC+ group, will work together to reduce the growth of the gross domestic product in the years 2023 and 2024.
Fourth: The public finance balance is expected to transform from a large surplus achieved in 2022 to a budget deficit in 2023. Experts expect the size of the government’s fiscal deficit to expand further in 2024, reflecting the full annual impact of budget measures.
Fifth: The significant expansion of public finances, including a fundamental increase in the numbers of members of the public sector and retirement, creates permanent requirements for public spending that will put pressure on public funds in the medium term.
Sixth: Mobilizing more non-oil revenues, containing the wage bill for government employees, and reforming the government retirement system. These measures must be supported by a move to a more targeted social safety net that works to provide better protection for vulnerable groups.
Seventh: The necessity of creating equal opportunities for the private sector by implementing reforms in banking and the electricity sector, reducing distortions in the labor market, and continuing to make efforts aimed at strengthening governance and reducing the spread of corruption.
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