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Western analysts: arms deals and oil will determine the future of Iraq's relationship with America
BAGHDAD - William Dunlop
Experts say that relations between Baghdad and Washington will remain strong after the military withdrawal from Iraq, but it's likely that neighboring countries are trying to Iraq, including Iran, find a space in which it is the largest influence.
Apart from a few hundreds of trainers, it is supposed to withdraw U.S. troops completely from Iraq by the end of this year, noting that Baghdad will remain an incubator for the largest U.S. embassy in the world on a diplomatic mission, including about 16 thousand employees.
Said Ali al-Saffar, an Iraqi analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a group based in London, said the US-Iraqi relationship will remain "as strong as the relationship between the United States and other countries in the region."
Explains Saffar told AFP that "the Iraqis realize that they need to U.S. companies in Iraq and that there must be a fundamental trade relationship between the two countries in the future." He continues that "this matter will be linked to short-term oil contracts and armament."
The United States established an office in Iraq to security cooperation under the authority and supervision of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, including the work of U.S. 157 soldiers and about 763 civilian contractors who will work on the training of Iraqi forces on military equipment purchased by Baghdad.
At this time, Iraq is seeking to increase its production of oil for about 5 times in the coming years, noting that Baghdad is entirely dependent on oil revenues to achieve their income.
In the opinion of yolk that "the withdrawal of U.S. forces will lead to a decline in influence, any American influence."
Although he did not consider that this matter will cause the creation of security or political Huat, it will be there, "continued attempts to influence the way the course for Iraq, especially by countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia."
And adds, "Iraq is a major prize in the region." And bridge the yolk that "Iraq has not always been subject to pressure or external influences, so I doubt it will become a follower of one of the countries in the region."
However, according to a return to sectarian conflict, which reached its peak between 2006 and 2007 "will give the regional powers, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, a large area to move."
For his part, says Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group, said the US-Iraqi relations will remain strong "for a certain period at least."
And vice-director for the Middle East and North Africa in the international community specifically to the weapons purchased by Iraq from the United States, as well as to "the American role in the training of police for some time, and also there are other prospects of the bilateral relationship may succeed or may fail."
He explains that "Iraq will try now closer to the United States as a partner, not an occupied country, and insists on creating positive conditions for this relationship, because the United States needed Iraq against Iran, it will have to consider is open to those conditions."
According to Hiltermann, "Iran and Turkey are the two most prominent rivals." He says that "Turkey is investing heavily in the country," while "Iran is seeking behind the security relationship, and encourage trade and tourism," pointing out that "each party will succeed in their own way, and there will be room for both of them."
According to John Drake, an analyst at the company (ie AK) and the British-based security, the future of the Iraqi-American relationship will depend on how to deal with the Baghdad regional linkages.
He says that "Iraq's relationship with the closest neighbors are also subject to change, may affect it in turn to the relationship with the United States if Iraq has become closer to the countries opposed to U.S. influence in the region such as Iran."
Drake believes that "the vacuum after the withdrawal from Iraq is likely to be covered several players, including companies from Europe and Asia with various commercial agendas, as well as foreign countries."
The analyst, "The neighboring countries will try to influence events to ensure that Iraq's transition to the threat (...) But the fear is that Iraq's neighbors, sliding toward internal competition by supporting organizations to increase their influence in the country, may lead to regional conflict on Iraqi territory ".
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BAGHDAD - William Dunlop
Experts say that relations between Baghdad and Washington will remain strong after the military withdrawal from Iraq, but it's likely that neighboring countries are trying to Iraq, including Iran, find a space in which it is the largest influence.
Apart from a few hundreds of trainers, it is supposed to withdraw U.S. troops completely from Iraq by the end of this year, noting that Baghdad will remain an incubator for the largest U.S. embassy in the world on a diplomatic mission, including about 16 thousand employees.
Said Ali al-Saffar, an Iraqi analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a group based in London, said the US-Iraqi relationship will remain "as strong as the relationship between the United States and other countries in the region."
Explains Saffar told AFP that "the Iraqis realize that they need to U.S. companies in Iraq and that there must be a fundamental trade relationship between the two countries in the future." He continues that "this matter will be linked to short-term oil contracts and armament."
The United States established an office in Iraq to security cooperation under the authority and supervision of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, including the work of U.S. 157 soldiers and about 763 civilian contractors who will work on the training of Iraqi forces on military equipment purchased by Baghdad.
At this time, Iraq is seeking to increase its production of oil for about 5 times in the coming years, noting that Baghdad is entirely dependent on oil revenues to achieve their income.
In the opinion of yolk that "the withdrawal of U.S. forces will lead to a decline in influence, any American influence."
Although he did not consider that this matter will cause the creation of security or political Huat, it will be there, "continued attempts to influence the way the course for Iraq, especially by countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia."
And adds, "Iraq is a major prize in the region." And bridge the yolk that "Iraq has not always been subject to pressure or external influences, so I doubt it will become a follower of one of the countries in the region."
However, according to a return to sectarian conflict, which reached its peak between 2006 and 2007 "will give the regional powers, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, a large area to move."
For his part, says Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group, said the US-Iraqi relations will remain strong "for a certain period at least."
And vice-director for the Middle East and North Africa in the international community specifically to the weapons purchased by Iraq from the United States, as well as to "the American role in the training of police for some time, and also there are other prospects of the bilateral relationship may succeed or may fail."
He explains that "Iraq will try now closer to the United States as a partner, not an occupied country, and insists on creating positive conditions for this relationship, because the United States needed Iraq against Iran, it will have to consider is open to those conditions."
According to Hiltermann, "Iran and Turkey are the two most prominent rivals." He says that "Turkey is investing heavily in the country," while "Iran is seeking behind the security relationship, and encourage trade and tourism," pointing out that "each party will succeed in their own way, and there will be room for both of them."
According to John Drake, an analyst at the company (ie AK) and the British-based security, the future of the Iraqi-American relationship will depend on how to deal with the Baghdad regional linkages.
He says that "Iraq's relationship with the closest neighbors are also subject to change, may affect it in turn to the relationship with the United States if Iraq has become closer to the countries opposed to U.S. influence in the region such as Iran."
Drake believes that "the vacuum after the withdrawal from Iraq is likely to be covered several players, including companies from Europe and Asia with various commercial agendas, as well as foreign countries."
The analyst, "The neighboring countries will try to influence events to ensure that Iraq's transition to the threat (...) But the fear is that Iraq's neighbors, sliding toward internal competition by supporting organizations to increase their influence in the country, may lead to regional conflict on Iraqi territory ".
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