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The future of Iraq may be decided in the capitals of neighboring countries

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Shredd

Shredd
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The future of Iraq may be decided in the capitals of neighboring countries

On: Sun 08/01/2012 9:00

 Translation / long
compared with the large number of bombings in Iraq, it is that I heard was not huge, I had just arrived to the Rashid Hotel in Baghdad in the November 28, when the explosion occurred at a distance of hundreds of yards away, in front of Parliament House,

I thought first that he does not need to be a rocket or mortar shell fired from outside the Green Zone, but as night fell, I passed the location of the explosion, where the structure of the car pointed to the explosion of a bomb, but I did not see any hole in the ground, the most recent explosion.

were not I have an idea at the time of this explosion will be related to the change in Iraqi politics, which may have been used as an argument, but the bomb was referring to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to isolate the senior members of the Year in his government, as it announced that the bomb was an attempt to assassinate him and accused the protection of Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, and warrant was issued against Hashemi for his relationship with terrorism cases dating back to the stage (2006-2007) and forced Hashemi to travel to Kurdistan, and a description of Maliki's government dictatorship.

Is that what is happening is the end of the disintegration of Iraq?

Is that Maliki turn into a Shiite Saddam Hussein, abandoning the settlement, a center of power in his hands, relying only on force? Does he have the means to do so? Even with Iraqi oil revenues, which amounted to 100 billion dollars annually with the organs of the state's troubled and the preparation of the security forces 900.000 troops and police, the matter will not be easy.

It was Saddam Hussein had the means of coercion and the biggest yet failed to establish full authority, has failed because Iraq is composed of - Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds is difficult to coerce or intimidate them always.

has been to Iraq, the rulers of former resorted to massacres and spread terror against the Kurds for more than 40 years, but they could not crush them, and said one Iraqi observer, "the Sunni Arabs in a better position to create a state of instability more than the Kurds before. "

concentration of power at the center of Iraq faces many obstacles, because of all parties and parties external relations, which are under pressure, will seek help, said the year will be looking to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and the United States that the marginalized and become citizens second class, however it was still early, a number of Sunni politicians, left Baghdad with their families out of the country, the seriousness of the stay.
that Maliki may seem, taking advantage of physical force, but this factor is deceptive, that its military forces and abundant, but dilapidated and ineffective often, and al-Qaeda in Iraq is not large but nevertheless succeeded in planting more than a dozen bombs in Baghdad in the December 22.

There is also is important more important is, that the leadership of al-Maliki was the result of compatibility when it was chosen for the first time as prime minister in 2006 and again in 2010, has had a permanent enemies of many, but they were not united enough to choose someone other convenient agree unanimously at the same time Dan politicians Kurds, and the followers of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, too, al-Maliki as he is not trustworthy and a dictator in the first period for prime minister, but in the end agreed to it.

There is another fact that Maliki may be the only leader acceptable for the United States and Iran. Because the Americans and Iranians spend a lot of time in exchange of words bad because of the policy in Iraq, has benefited al-Maliki of that relationship in 2006 and 2010, when chosen for the prime minister said to me, one Iraqi official with a laugh: "The Great Satan (also called the Iranians America) and the axis of evil (as it is called America, Iran and its allies) agreed together for the second time and chose the Maliki, a man for them.

This policy found its opponents abroad, said a former diplomat who worked in Iraq, "I think it was a mistake from the United States because it has not announced its rejection of the owners in 1010, and the diplomat as saying that Maliki wants to create a dictatorship and this country is corrupt and dysfunctional jobs, that corruption has reached a degree in the state to the extent that the funds are turned simply to Shell companies secretly owned by a number of officials in Iraq, and has reached the degree of unemployment in Iraq to the proportion (25-40% ), while the electricity was a key factor for the failure of Saddam's regime, they are still well, but the Ministry of Electricity successful in agreeing to give $ 1.3 billion to a German company bankrupt and another company a Canadian non-existent.

that the State budget is spent primarily on salaries and the granting of pensions , and receipts signed by the ruling parties.
At a time when bribery evil in Kurdistan, as the sayings of the business, the region witnessed the construction of airports, bridges, power stations and projects building houses for the accommodation, at the time did not do when the Iraqi government anything, and in the long run, the continue the general poverty and deprivation, despite the oil revenues high, it may be in the future factor of unrest in Iraq.

that the disaster may come, but not at the present time, the Iraqi policy is wrong, because violence is the strongest is in the country currently, and conferences of politicians loud will not lead necessarily out of the crisis, and every hand will lead a lot of decay final state.

that the future of Iraq may be decided in the capitals of the neighboring country during this year, and will remain America's mission to Baghdad, despite the departure of its troops, and the greater the divide between Iraqis, the more money powers external, and sad that the "Arab spring" of the Middle East lost motion, and Iran in fear of losing, Syria and its ally, there are sectarian problems in Bahrain.

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