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Analysis of U.S. intelligence: Iran will help its allies in Iraq
Posted 13/02/2012 02:31 PM
Washington - "squares of liberation"
has taken the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq set up after an American military withdrawal. While the year is looking for players such as outside the United States and Turkey to intervene on their behalf, and Iran continues to acquire more influence in Iraq, more than any other country.
Ideally, you want to keep Tehran in Iraq's instability is able to control. In fact, it will be on Tehran perform a delicate balancing act to resolve the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites, as it helps its Shiite allies enough to retain its influence, but prevent them from becoming strong too much, according to analysis for Stratfor, the U.S..
and publish site "Stratfor" program for " Foundation Media Advisory competent intelligence analysis "based in Texas City, an analysis of Iran's position on the tensions in Iraq, which was:
I looked political groups in Iraq, ethnic and sectarian withdrawal of U.S. forces in December 2011 as an opportunity to grab power. Try to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to take advantage of the withdrawal, as evidenced by the issuance of an arrest warrant, Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, on charges of terrorism. This has caused the accident crisis between the government-dominated Maliki, a Shiite and Sunnis in the country, represented in a cluster of Iraq, and has exacerbated tensions between the Iraqi and Kurdish governments.
The crisis also revealed differences between Maliki and the movement led by Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
While the year has sought to gain political help from the Turks and the Americans on this issue, the Ankara and Washington have significantly less effect in Iraq of Tehran. In fact, Iran has sought to calm tensions in Iraq, through the pursuit of a top commander of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards, General Sardar Majidi to mediate in the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. Challenge for Tehran is to ensure a solution to the current crisis without the empowerment of the year.
Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's al-Maliki in the future in one of the last visits to Tehran
In similar situations in the past and stood with Iran over the last faction, Mstbakah its influence with the Shiite community in Iraq without weakening the position of Shiites in general. Is aware of al-Maliki and Sadr, despite being competitors, they need to work together. But the situation is slightly different from the current situation in the past.
It is not the only insurance Liran Shiite unity, but also make sure that the movements of al-Maliki against the Sunnis will not go very far. Iran would prefer not to alienate completely the year, especially with a lot of unrest in Syria. If I let the government the upper in the Damascus area to the Government of Sunni - or if there is chaos in Syria - it was the year Iraqis that they had a degree of power that qualifies them to face the Shiites, who dominate now Baghdad.
that the instability of unchecked in Iraq is not in the interest of Iran, especially that now threatened by Tehran's influence in Syria. In fact, the longer the current situation in Baghdad is ideal for the Iranians, taking into consideration that it took nine months for the Iraqis to form a government after elections 0.7 2010 parliamentary Mara. However, the management of Iraqi instability is useful for Iran to retain Iraq as part of that sphere of influence - and because it can be used by means of pressure against the United States. But if the instability threatens the Shiite political dominance, it may be necessary to ensure non-interference undermine the interests of its foreign policy.
Another problem is that the interests of Tehran are different from the interests of its Shiite allies. While Iran certainly has an impact on the Shiite community in Iraq, but this effect is limited by the differences in the Shiite factions in Iraq. In fact, try to co-leader of the Shiite factions, Maliki and Sadr, on several occasions to be free from Iranian influence. Maliki tried to do it when he formed a coalition of state law and compete in parliamentary elections independently of the INA. Since Maliki stresses of his control over Iraq - which served as interior minister, defense minister and head of National Security - Iran is eager not to see him become strong too much, and not to allow him to breach the balance that Tehran is trying to maintain.
It is interesting, The role of Iran was effective in Maliki as prime minister of Iraq, through the re-alliance with the Iraqi National Coalition, which allowed the formation of a Shiite bloc (of 159 seats) has allowed the owners to prevent his biggest rival, the Iraqi List led by Iyad Allawi, the prime minister. The Iranians have participated significantly in the engineering mode after the elections.
Maliki also got support from his Shiite rivals, from whom he can not give it. Even managed to convince the opponents of the year these liabilities in a way to give their support to the owners, it is likely that they would abandon him Kano. Maliki is betting on the inability of his opponents to go away and to ensure the task of forming a new government. This is what gives him a heavy load. It works already out of bounds through the establishment of the parliamentary executive authority with wide influence, a kind of scenario you want Iran to avoid.
Iran has the option of working with the Kurds, who have close ties with Tehran. However, if the Sunnis realized that the Iranians and Iraqi Shia allies on the defensive, they will try to gain more political power. The Iranians have to be Esicrvoa a new understanding of power-sharing understanding in Baghdad.
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Posted 13/02/2012 02:31 PM
Washington - "squares of liberation"
has taken the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq set up after an American military withdrawal. While the year is looking for players such as outside the United States and Turkey to intervene on their behalf, and Iran continues to acquire more influence in Iraq, more than any other country.
Ideally, you want to keep Tehran in Iraq's instability is able to control. In fact, it will be on Tehran perform a delicate balancing act to resolve the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites, as it helps its Shiite allies enough to retain its influence, but prevent them from becoming strong too much, according to analysis for Stratfor, the U.S..
and publish site "Stratfor" program for " Foundation Media Advisory competent intelligence analysis "based in Texas City, an analysis of Iran's position on the tensions in Iraq, which was:
I looked political groups in Iraq, ethnic and sectarian withdrawal of U.S. forces in December 2011 as an opportunity to grab power. Try to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to take advantage of the withdrawal, as evidenced by the issuance of an arrest warrant, Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, on charges of terrorism. This has caused the accident crisis between the government-dominated Maliki, a Shiite and Sunnis in the country, represented in a cluster of Iraq, and has exacerbated tensions between the Iraqi and Kurdish governments.
The crisis also revealed differences between Maliki and the movement led by Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
While the year has sought to gain political help from the Turks and the Americans on this issue, the Ankara and Washington have significantly less effect in Iraq of Tehran. In fact, Iran has sought to calm tensions in Iraq, through the pursuit of a top commander of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards, General Sardar Majidi to mediate in the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. Challenge for Tehran is to ensure a solution to the current crisis without the empowerment of the year.
Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's al-Maliki in the future in one of the last visits to Tehran
In similar situations in the past and stood with Iran over the last faction, Mstbakah its influence with the Shiite community in Iraq without weakening the position of Shiites in general. Is aware of al-Maliki and Sadr, despite being competitors, they need to work together. But the situation is slightly different from the current situation in the past.
It is not the only insurance Liran Shiite unity, but also make sure that the movements of al-Maliki against the Sunnis will not go very far. Iran would prefer not to alienate completely the year, especially with a lot of unrest in Syria. If I let the government the upper in the Damascus area to the Government of Sunni - or if there is chaos in Syria - it was the year Iraqis that they had a degree of power that qualifies them to face the Shiites, who dominate now Baghdad.
that the instability of unchecked in Iraq is not in the interest of Iran, especially that now threatened by Tehran's influence in Syria. In fact, the longer the current situation in Baghdad is ideal for the Iranians, taking into consideration that it took nine months for the Iraqis to form a government after elections 0.7 2010 parliamentary Mara. However, the management of Iraqi instability is useful for Iran to retain Iraq as part of that sphere of influence - and because it can be used by means of pressure against the United States. But if the instability threatens the Shiite political dominance, it may be necessary to ensure non-interference undermine the interests of its foreign policy.
Another problem is that the interests of Tehran are different from the interests of its Shiite allies. While Iran certainly has an impact on the Shiite community in Iraq, but this effect is limited by the differences in the Shiite factions in Iraq. In fact, try to co-leader of the Shiite factions, Maliki and Sadr, on several occasions to be free from Iranian influence. Maliki tried to do it when he formed a coalition of state law and compete in parliamentary elections independently of the INA. Since Maliki stresses of his control over Iraq - which served as interior minister, defense minister and head of National Security - Iran is eager not to see him become strong too much, and not to allow him to breach the balance that Tehran is trying to maintain.
It is interesting, The role of Iran was effective in Maliki as prime minister of Iraq, through the re-alliance with the Iraqi National Coalition, which allowed the formation of a Shiite bloc (of 159 seats) has allowed the owners to prevent his biggest rival, the Iraqi List led by Iyad Allawi, the prime minister. The Iranians have participated significantly in the engineering mode after the elections.
Maliki also got support from his Shiite rivals, from whom he can not give it. Even managed to convince the opponents of the year these liabilities in a way to give their support to the owners, it is likely that they would abandon him Kano. Maliki is betting on the inability of his opponents to go away and to ensure the task of forming a new government. This is what gives him a heavy load. It works already out of bounds through the establishment of the parliamentary executive authority with wide influence, a kind of scenario you want Iran to avoid.
Iran has the option of working with the Kurds, who have close ties with Tehran. However, if the Sunnis realized that the Iranians and Iraqi Shia allies on the defensive, they will try to gain more political power. The Iranians have to be Esicrvoa a new understanding of power-sharing understanding in Baghdad.
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