Home
Challenges faced by Iraq to increase oil production
Posted 11/03/2012 03:25 AM
Walid Khadduri *
Iraq has officially announced last week that oil production exceeded 3 million barrels per day, for the first time in more than 30 years. The truth of the matter is that production in the recent past was the rate was, but what was delaying the increase in exports is the lack of adequate export facilities to accommodate this amount of crude oil.
Indeed, it was expected to be operational «laying single flipper» in the waters of the northern Gulf in the south of the country in November (November), but the opening date was postponed for technical reasons related to safety and other facilities. But what was strange when the delay last in February, is to invite companies to load oil and communicate specific dates for the receipt, even before the completion of necessary repairs, then canceled suddenly, and the abolition of invitations and media, to attend the party launch, without giving any reason, raising a lot of confusion about the reasons for the delay. Now, it seems that the export of Blackjack has already begun, with the first tanker docked «Maersk Ardwa» on 7 when the current buoy and oil actually started to download them.
The Energy Agency recently pointed out that Iraq is able to increase its oil production by 2015 to about 6.5 million barrels a day, and 8 million barrels per day after 20 years, instead of 12 million barrels by 2017, according to the scheme and the Ministry of Oil. The reason for this long delay and the wide difference between the plans and expectations of the Iraqi Energy Agency, is the challenges that will face Iraq in the construction of infrastructure and production facilities and export in a timely manner.
It is known that the Iraqi National Oil Company had completed a study of Iraqi oil reserves (second in the world after Saudi Arabia) in the sixties of last century, where advanced computer devices used at the American University in Beirut, as these devices are not available in Iraq at the time. It is known also that the Ministry of Oil was proposed early in 1990, an integrated program for the development of production to about 6 million barrels per day and implemented in collaboration with international oil companies on the basis of its financing of development in return for Iraq's commitment to provide companies with crude oil for a long time (about 20 years old) without any rights in the Iraqi oil reserves. The Iraqi delegation traveled to Tokyo high oil and discuss the chart with the oil companies of Japan and the Japanese reaction was positive. However, the wars and the international embargo far these suggestions stop this program before its launch.
That the initiative of the Iraqi government to adopt an ambitious program to increase the production capacity of Iraq's two million barrels per day to about 12 million barrels per day during the second half of this decade, is one of the most ambitious plans of oil in the world, due to the short period for implementation.
That starting in increasing the production capacity of Iraq during this difficult period of history of the country in the absence of a social contract, and the prevalence of public corruption and the complexities of weakness administrative, not to mention the internal differences of political and sectarian strife that took control joints the state president and impede the progress of the country, are the challenges of serious jumped oil industry jump high standard. Is it possible to isolate it from the development of the oil sector?
There is no doubt that the huge increase in Iraqi oil exports will face competition from neighboring countries. Oil is heading to the overwhelmingly Asian countries. It is noted that about 70 percent of Basra's oil exports during the nineties (the oil-for-food) were destined to the U.S. market, but now, about 70 percent of it going to Asian markets. As well as a high percentage of oil Saudi and Kuwaiti and Iranian. Since the program of Iraq's exports on the rise (expected to increase the volume of exports from Basra, about one million barrels per day over the next year, including the current increase), you can expect stiff competition on the Asian markets themselves, may mean that, in the development of Iraq, for example, that unlikely to maintain spare capacity, granting price discounts to promote Nfoth complete.
There is the issue of Iraq's share in «OPEC». Baghdad is a high proportion will be prompted to share not only with the level of future production, but also taking into account the long years that the decreased production due to wars and sanctions. Iraq is expected to increase oil production to about 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of this year, then to a higher level in 2013. The determination of the quota system of the hardest things in the meetings of «OPEC». And determine the share of Iraq in particular is not easy, because this is not about him only, because that was the equal share in the eighties with Iran. This means that Iran will ask the same share of Iraq, at a time can not produce up to a specified level, which is about 4 million barrels per day. It is interesting since it announced the increases in its oil reserves, after all announce the increase to the reserves of Iraq. This means that Tehran is determined to maintain the public reserve at the level of the same with Iraq, and then to claim its share of future production in the «OPEC». But the big difference this time lies in the power production capacity of Iraq quickly took over Iran's actual production.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
