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Said that its economy will fall .. Yediot Aharonot: Arab Spring countries will not settle down and affect the security of Israel
09/01/2013 12:00 am
The future of Iraq / follow-up
there are plenty of signs that the revolutions Arab Spring that interact in the Arab world affect a very negative in Arab-Israeli relations, despite the fact that countries that have experienced these revolutions live birth pangs democratic transition difficult, and struggling with the complexities of the transition; to make them far from caring about what is behind their borders.
However, all indications show that the Arab countries that saw revolutions, especially Egypt and Tunisia, will not be able to devote themselves to the great strides during the current year are affecting the "national security" Israeli, but the report Israelis newspaper "Yediot Aharonot" may assume that transformations in the Arab world carries a lot of risk strategy, which calls for a significant threat to "Israel".
According to published report, there are key can for them to increase the threat of Arab "Israel" and of the collapse of the regimes that have pioneered the signing of peace agreements with "Israel", and the other is the rise of Islamists to power.
According to the report, the Arab Spring has passed in several stages over the past two years and may pass in a new stage in the new year 2013 and that will focus the attention of those States select Map relations with "Israel."
as The newspaper pointed out that the Arab Spring came in three types of revolutions in various countries, the first of which revolutions quiet and occurred as in Tunisia and Egypt and led to the fall of Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, the second type are armed uprisings or violent as described occurred as in Libya, and the civil war continued in Syria, and the third type is the reform, those forced regimes such as Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia to take far-reaching reforms, democratization and anti-corruption.
The report shows that the year 2011 was the beginning of a spark Arab spring where interrupted by many uprisings peaceful led to the fall of the largest Arab regimes that were dependent upon "Israel" primarily, while the second phase are those that we saw in 2012 and the new development in the establishment of the transitional phase in every state and parliamentary elections and even presidential, as happened in Egypt, and in the Some countries began the process of drafting a new constitution.
Despite this however, the transition began some differences between the rebels in most countries of the Arab Spring on the nature of the state in the future, claiming that the current Liberal and secular youth revolution have been excluded after the elections and progress Islamists who said their The newspaper did not lead the protest movement primitive.
The paper points out that the winners mainly of those revolutions are Islamic movements, especially the Muslim Brotherhood who have achieved a landslide victory in most countries of the Arab Spring in the parliamentary elections, pointing out that the Salafi movements Islamic extremist and a threat to control Brotherhood, but the protests secularism which appeared in the middle of last year prevented that.
As for the losers may report showed that the nationalists and the secularists and the Nasserites and Baathists were the biggest losers in this battle - so to speak - and returns the paper that to the ideas that, according to the report characterized those regimes headed by army officers corrupt sought peoples to overthrow.
Turning the report to the Palestinian and the impact of the Arab Spring in which the light of the continued division between Fatah and Hamas, pointing out that some of the protests have been established in the West Bank against the government of Salam Fayyad because of the economic crisis being experienced by the power Palestinian and which he described as serious.
and about the danger to the state of "Israel", the report pointed out that "Israel is surrounded by several circles serious of those countries affected by the regulations collaborating with" Israel "Arab Spring, for example, the Upper Egypt, which is considered one of the countries first circle surrounding Israel, see report that there is stability looms in Egypt despite the existing threats in the Sinai, which was described recently as "ticking bomb".
while continuing suffering and the deteriorating security situation in Syria and is approaching the danger of "Israel" day after day under the announcement by President Bashar al-Assad in his recent "continue until the end," The Syrian Revolution began threatening actually Lebanese territory with the increasing number of displaced people, as is the case in both Jordan and Turkey.
The report shows that states the second circle and of all of Tunisia, Libya and Yemen, which is the consideration Israelis less a threat to them from the first circle around them such as Egypt, Jordan and Syria, but that the estimates in the Israeli security agencies suggest otherwise Fraúdh Arab revolutions Tunisia have a significant impact in the region, but at the moment busy conflict prevailing between leftist parties and the Islamic regime ruling collide internal conflicts as well More demonstrations and strikes that do not stop.
As in Libya, which is the richest oil-producing countries are also soaked interests of public and internal differences, especially the economic crisis and infighting that continues, and the report notes that the transitional government did not succeed in collecting arms buildup in recent hands rebels , also placed not allowed now to look to the relations with "Israel."
In Yemen living are other security situation difficult resembles the situation in Libya, the absence of the ability of the system to control these gangs and armed tribes, as well as the risk of deterioration into chaos and then to the Civil War that warns everybody between gangs and tribes, while calling for a considerable divide Yemen to the north and south like happened in Sudan, the situation is also not allowed to put a new program in how future relations with "Israel."
According to the report, both the Turkey and Iran seem to see the Arab Spring look different from other Turkey considers that came to pay Sunni regime based therein and be a new step to support Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whereas Iran is of the view that the Arab Spring and especially progress Islamists will support the vision of Ayatollah Khamenei to establish the so-called Islamic imperialism.
new systems are still in the stage of organization and maturity has not crystallized until the moment a clear stance in the issue of relations with "Israel", and no doubt that the coming Israeli elections and the next government's relations with the Palestinians have the most prominent effect in that position.
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