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Economy crisis and opportunities for reform 1-3
7/10/2015 0:00
Dr. Ahmed Abrihi Ali
If true, the International Energy Agency estimates about the lack of increased supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Countries (OPEC) in the next year, the improved price will depend on its policy, and especially Saudi Arabia, because they can offer control. Expected to remain budget deficit in the next year it has been expanding despite the austerity measures. As a result deferred the need for current expenditure to sustain the operation of departments and services of security and defense, and payments owed to the projects under implementation to encourage contractors to continue to work. And development and operating expenses of the contracting companies in the sector of oil. And still increase revenue from local sources of non-oil measures confused whether tax, of various kinds, and duties on consumer goods and services and the collection of customs duties and other fees and electricity. It remains success in the development of sources of revenue from non-oil minimal in the coming year, and needs to build institutional arbitrator in the Ministry of Finance replaces ways of thinking and old ways another credibly articulate sense of danger about the sustainability of the financial situation in Iraq. On the other hand recede gradually local sources to finance the deficit, a deposit excess credit and bank which almost exhausted. The government borrowing from the public is still in its infancy and its tools are limited and its market absent and unreliable significant size. The budget deficit is much easier than the problem of the balance of external payments, the second the result of the lower oil price, as the foreign currency of Iraq's exports are not enough to cover imports of the government and obligations Foreign adding the need for the private sector. The latter asked to import foreign goods and services currency, and transfers to Iraqis abroad, and investments in the markets of other countries. The demand for large foreign currency in Iraq for several reasons, the most important of the limited national production capacity, and the low exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar, and the security situation, and the psychological effects of war and siege, the political and media. The continuing current levels of demand for foreign currency to the depletion of central bank reserves. Also, the promotion of industrial and agricultural production, to replace imports and increase the export of non-crude oil, needs years and requires the adoption of other policies that are based on approaches that are not familiar to people's awareness, and therefore may not have the compressor support to influence the decision in a circle. And bureaucracy in the composition of the list has totally with the perpetuation of the current economic situation, and feared compromising their positions. We have shown years siege fact the Iraqi economy, devoid of crude oil, where potential is limited productivity, collectively, and the industry that have arisen within the confines of the state does not have the self-economic elements for the continuation and growth. It was mostly an additional channel to dissipate the oil resources devoted relied upon, and when oil exports stopped disappeared from the scene of many large facilities despite the high price of foreign currency, which has created an opportunity to make up for imports and export diversification outside of crude oil. Even if a lot of other productive activities that seemed successful financially and economically is really not so even low-lying energy prices and other forms implicit subsidies concealed shortcomings in efficiency and is not already justify what was spent on them. After 2003 neglected to decision-makers dilemma and their advisers economic and justified reluctance to take responsibility by drawing on perspectives such as superficial and ready to foreign investment and the private sector will guarantee the prosperity of Iraq as soon as the launch of the freedom to work. And Iraq's economy suffered the plight of another, namely, government investment has failed: the high costs of projects, from school to the power plant, and the lows of the specifications and designs and techniques, and the deflection force for controls and terms of the contract, the length of the construction period, low rates of annual completion of unfinished projects. Widen the infrastructure gap in all sectors of electricity, drinking water and sanitation to school buildings, passing through ports, railways, and stalled development or irrigation networks and Alambazl programs stopped. Even if crude oil and gas development operations were not desired as quickly as technically and economically desired integration. The government investment after the failure of the year 3002 is the biggest disadvantages of development management and economy policy in Iraq. The government failed political actors to act hard to fix this vital process, which is the backbone of development and improve the lives of people. And the tributaries of the defect known: in the departments responsible for the project management system, and the construction sector, and the absence of specialized in engineering audit costs and executive performance units. The second failure in breadth government apparatus the size and performance of the low and Asrafh in the waste of resources, and his personal whims, and inaction in the face of theft and extortion, collusion with the content of the values of the state personal right of its members in the hierarchy of feudal. The problem of unemployment, the phenomenon and convincing, they are the second face to the small production capacity, with technical backwardness and regulatory, or in other words the cause of unemployment lies in the development stopped. Manifested in Iraq unable to recruit human resources productivity suitable to generate enough income for the family, according to the prevailing standards of civilization, and the conditions and working relations satisfy a sense of human dignity, and are common in the same trust with the community and hope for the future of the best.
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