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Act now can reverse takeover Organization of Iran «Islamic State» on the path of power in Iraq
12-11-2015
From our point of view, and based on the considerable experience in the affairs of Iraq, we can say that the country has not developed, but going through a critical impasse. Many remained, which worked Washington to achieve there, but contradictory forces, both Maaditan the United States, are the organization «Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant» («Daash») / «Islamic state» and Iran, seeking to control Iraq and destabilize the region. In this context, can the United States help Iraqi friends and increase stability, starting with the launch of a quick and more effective campaign against al «Islamic state» and by strengthening assistance to the governments in Baghdad and Erbil. But if you do not do so, it will be the effects of the regional system scary.
We have worked together at the US Embassy in Baghdad between 2004 and 2005, when Iraq was sliding toward internal conflict and fighting horrible. Each one of us have volunteered to do additional lengthy tours of duty in Iraq, adding to our views on the Iraqi developments. We were close to the fighting, and we have seen very closely the great effort made by the US military and civilian personnel to help the Iraqis to preserve the cohesion of their country. Given the expectations of some analysts that Iraq is a failed state or in failure, we have just visited Iraq to see the situation closely.
The Americans have paid a heavy price in Iraq, and therefore they have high standards around the shape, which should appear by the Iraqi state. Iraq did not adhere to many of those standards, but our disappointment with the lack of Shiites, Sunni Arabs and Kurds, Christians and Turkmen work and many other ethnic and religious groups all of them with each other easily does not mean that Iraq is a failed state, or will be. In fact, after the end of fierce fighting in Baghdad, less than a decade, it is considered the capital now relatively quiet and look much better in terms of appearance. Iraqi parliament discusses irregularly major issues and chooses the prime minister and his government in a peaceful manner and in accordance with the Constitution. And can raise the question, what is the number of other countries in the region that can say that? All the Sunni Arabs of the three main Arab Sunni provinces who met with them had urged the establishment of local governments is authorized within the unified Iraqi state. This is a far cry from their demands ten years ago that has Iraq, like its Arab neighbors, central government acquires power, and that the new Sunni Arab thinking is much closer to the vision contained in the 2005 Constitution, which the Iraqis drafted by Shiites and Kurds, to a large extent. The relations between the central government in Baghdad and «Kurdistan Regional Government» in Erbil are tough. However, Erbil did not declare independence, as the Kurds of Iraq's autonomous widespread within the Iraqi state and the Iraqi Kurdish politics itself is evolving. It continues to Baghdad and Erbil to negotiate on how to deal with oil export revenues. In addition, the tone of the interaction between the central government in Baghdad and officials in the «Kurdistan region» Best became significantly more realistic than it was a decade ago. Among the factors helping here that both governments both recognize that they face a common enemy is the organization «Islamic State». Thus, the success in the construction of a federal Iraqi state is uncertain, but it is possible to a large extent.
However, if this stage is particularly difficult. . Baghdad and Erbil are facing political and financial crises are interrelated, and the latter are more dangerous for the Kurds, but for the most serious political crises to Baghdad. And created this political and financial crises and partly because certainly exacerbated organization «Islamic State». Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and faces great challenges from political hardliners and those in the ranks of Iran-backed militias, who refuse to reform and look dim view of the idea of national reconciliation. Iraqis from all spectra believe that Iran, as is the case in Syria, are following a radical turn to gain power in Iraq and the exploitation of the lack of success against al «Islamic state.» It may be currently may enhance it with Russia, due to intelligence coordination agreement (although the Iraqi government says it will not coordinate operations with Moscow). And if you fall of Baghdad and southern regions of Iraq's Shiite-dominated under the control of Tehran, will end reconciliation between the three main groups in the country, which will pay to "more sectarian to be even closer to the Iranians," a Shiite state. This is the equation that reliable leader of al «Daash», where would the sectarian and bad Shiite state to ensure that a large number of recruits for "successor" organization «Islamic state» in order to make up for his battle losses.
It is essential that Iraq is not sliding into this road . If so, the Iraqis and the region would receive the blame on the United States for not losing organization «Daash» and then allowing the fall of her partner. The accession of Iraq to Iran and Syria to create a "Shiite crescent" who warned him to Jordan's King Abdullah. In addition, the oil reserves in southern Iraq, which amounts to 140 billion barrels of reserves, along with Iran similar, higher than Saudi Arabia amounting to 268 billion barrels of reserves. The shift in the power of this dimension in the middle of the region in favor of Iran (and less so, for the benefit of the organization «Islamic State») could push the region, and some of Washington's closest allies and partners, and eventually the United States itself, to a large-scale regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. This long-term war between Sunnis and Shiites could benefit both Russia and the extremists who hate the West also, and especially the United States.
The preservation of a unified Iraq and pro-US is in the vital interest of the United States. At the heart of maintaining this interest lies more aggressive campaign against al «Daash.» "Projection and destruction" strategy pursued by the United States and assume that time is in its favor ("3 to 5 years", and sometimes you hear Washington's "decade"). However, that was not the case. Failure to act in Syria has led to the emergence of the organization «Islamic State», then the refugees that threatens the political stability of the European Union flow, and now serious return of Russia to the region. In addition, the additional unpleasant surprises are among the few reliable predictions that the United States can do if you do not put itself at the forefront of events. The how to make the US military campaign against al «Daash» bolder and faster action constitutes a military issue beyond the framework Almamna, but due to the large US military force, one can assume that the restrictions that prevent this is a political first place, and therefore constitute the subject of quite a bit public discussion. Through the use of military Putin tool weaker, did not let the political and logistical concerns that inhibit his movements around the region. The brilliant rescue operation carried out by the American "special forces" in the October 22 / October indicate further steps that the United States can do. The public support exists in this context, in accordance with the "Chicago Council survey of 2015" recently released. Apart from any military action, the United States should focus on a few important goals, to help Baghdad and Sunni Arabs to reach an agreed agreement mutually, and alleviate some of the financial burdens that plague the Kurds, and this would be a more practical by helping to pay the costs of refugees and internally displaced persons and the provision of weapons that you need Erbil, and not to ignore the internal problems of governance but also stimulate Baghdad and Erbil to be addressed in order to promote long-term stability.
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